黄河下游历史泥沙灾害的宏观特征及其与流域因素及人类活动的关系(Ⅰ)──历史气候及植被因素的影响

以历史上黄河下游的决溢频率为泥沙灾害的代用指标；研究了黄河下游历史泥沙灾害的宏观特征．研 究表明，气候因素对黄河下游决溢频率有深远的影响．隋唐以前，天然植被尚未遭到显著破坏，当湿润指标 增大时，有利于植被的生长，故黄河下游决溢频率减小．１０世纪以后，二者的关系与此相反，当湿润指标增 大时，决溢频率也增大，反之亦然．每世纪大旱年颁次与每世纪决溢频次之间呈明显正相关，说明目前受到 各方面广泛关注的黄河下游“小水大灾”现象，在历史上已经存在．干旱时期中，河槽萎缩，一旦大水来 临，很容易发生决溢．以华山松树木年轮指数为气温的代用指标，研究了气温变化与决溢频率变化的关系， 结果表明，在５０ａ的尺度上，当气温降低时，决溢频率增大，反之亦然．人类活动是影响黄河下游泥沙灾害 的重要因素．

流域因素与人类活动对黄河下游河道输沙功能的影响

从泥沙收支平衡的概念出发定义了河道的输沙功能,提出了河道输沙功能的定量指标,研究了流域自然因子和人类活动对黄河下游河道输沙功能的影响.这种影响可以用不同水沙来源区的降水量、进入黄河下游的大于0.05mm粗泥沙占来沙量百分比、黄河上游水库对汛期清水基流的调节程度(以兰州站讯期径流量占全年百分比表示) 、高含沙水流频率、流域内水土保持措施实施面积等来定量表达 .运用多元回归分析方法 ,建立了黄河下游河道输沙功能指标与上述7个因子之间的多元回归方程.表明不同水少来源区降水量的减少对下游河道输沙功能的影响是不同的.河口镇以上清水区和龙门至三门峡之间年降水量减少,将导致下游河道输沙功能指标降低;河口镇至龙门间降水减少,将导致下游河道输沙功能指标增高.来沙的组成强烈地影响下游河道输沙功能指标,进入黄河下游的大于0.05mm粗泥沙占来沙量百分比越大,则河道输沙功能指标越低.因此,小浪底水库拦截粗泥沙、排出细泥沙,将有利于提高下游河道输沙功能指标.兰州站汛期径流量占全年百分比越低,下游河道输沙功能指标越低,说明黄河上游水库大量拦截汛期清水基流,是下游河道输沙功能降低的原因之一.

区位因素对流域城市群环境规制互动的影响研究——以长江中游城市群为例

以公共选择学派和区域经济学的相关理论为指引,从外部视角出发,沿着“区位因素—赋能结构—环境规制收益结构—环境规制选择互动均衡”的分析范式,对流域和边界区位因素向流域城市群环境规制选择的赋能结构、对流域城市群环境规制互动的影响效果及影响机理等问题进行系统探讨,研究结果表明:区位因素对流域城市群的环境规制互动具有重要的调节作用,无论是流域还是边界区位因素均加剧了其向低水平同质竞争均衡退化的风险,但不同区位因素对区域环境规制互动升级的干扰机制存在一定的差别。其中,流域因素主要借助其复杂的赋能结构来引导上游地区采取低水平环境规制策略,并凭借其对低水平环境规制的优先选择权迫使下游地区采取跟随性的环境规制方案,最终诱使长江中游城市群的环境规制互动退化为低水平同质竞争均衡;与此相对,边界区位因素则通过其单一的赋能内容和非均衡的赋能范围来改善边界地区采取低水平环境规制策略的政治激励,提高边界城市实施低水平环境规制的政治政绩,刺激边界地区采取低水平环境规制策略,最终使得边界地区的环境规制互动陷入低水平竞争均衡的陷阱。通过进一步研究发现,阻碍长江中游城市群环境规制互动升级的障碍有二:一是长江中游城市群的生态环境治理结构与流域因素的赋能结构严重错位;二是省以上和省际生态环境管理体系相互分割,为边界区位因素的赋能创造了前提条件。

综合兼顾流域因子的云南省星云湖健康评价

[目的]以云南省星云湖为例,尝试兼顾流域因子进行湖泊健康评价,以期为滇中高原湖泊健康评价提供示范和指导作用。[方法]在面向湖泊环境驱动因素调查分析基础上,考虑了来自于流域方面驱动因素对湖泊环境的影响,构建兼顾流域因子的云南省星云湖健康评价的修正指标体系,综合利用遥感与GIS技术,对星云湖的健康状况进行具体量化评价与特性分析。[结果]获得了星云湖在水文水资源、湖泊物理结构、水质、生物和社会服务功能等5个准则层下各指标的量化评价分值;星云湖的健康状况一般,主要制约条件依次是水质、生物、水文水资源的健康状况不理想。[结论]兼顾流域因子的评价方法,在一定程度上改进了目前滇中高原湖泊生态系统健康评价中普遍存在的"就湖评湖"所存在的空间局限,以及由此对相关驱动指标考虑不足的问题;综合兼顾了流域因子的星云湖案例研究,可为滇中高原区域其他湖泊健康评价提供技术路线与评价方法。

黄河上游内蒙古河段平滩流量对人类活动和气候变化的响应

冲积河流平滩流量既反映了河道尺度上的水文-地貌耦合关系,又与流域因素密切相关。从这一概念出发,以黄河上游内蒙古河段为例,研究了平滩流量的变化,并在流域层面与河道层面上对其成因进行了研究。结果表明:上游水库调节改变了出库流量过程,使汛期流量大幅度减小,泄流过程均匀化,因而平滩流量减小。在龙羊峡水库修建后洪水流量减小导致漫滩机遇降低的情形下,泥沙淤在主槽内,也是平滩流量减小的重要原因。泥沙冲淤对于平滩流量的影响存在着某种累积或滞后效应,巴彦高勒平滩流量Qbf,BY不仅与当年的冲淤量有关,还与以前冲淤量有关,前4 a平均淤积量对平滩流量的影响最大。建立了平滩流量与前4 a累计淤积量、年均流量、年最大日流量的多元回归方程,该方程表明平滩流量既与当年的流量特征相联系,也与一定时间尺度上河道冲淤造成的后果相联系,反映了某种水文地貌耦合关系。研究还表明,存在着以下因果关系链:龙羊峡水库修建→汛期来沙系数增大→河道淤积加强→平滩流量减小。因此,通过改变龙羊峡水库的运用方式,增大汛期下泄流量,可以减小河道淤积、增大平滩流量,从而增大下泄洪水的能力,降低凌汛期间的防洪压力。平滩流量的变化是流域因素变化的结果,所建立的多元回归方程表明,在50 a的时间尺度上,暖干化指标的增大、引水率的增大、水库总库容的增大和天然径流系数的减小,是黄河上游平滩流量减小的原因。

Transboundary water vulnerability and its drivers in China

Competitive use of transboundary freshwater resources is becoming one of the key factors influencing regional peace and political relationship among states.In China, 18 major international river basins are concentrated in three regions, of which the total annual outflow at the border is 7320×108 m3, occupying 26.8% of the total annual runoff of China, and the inflow at the border is only 172×108 m3.In this paper, we analyzed the major drivers affecting shared water vulnerability in China, namely:(1) changes in physical conditions affecting the availability of water;(2) competing objectives between economic development and ecological conservation;(3) lack of emergency response mechanisms;(4) unsound administrative institutions;and(5) shortcomings in the development of regional cooperation based on transboundary waters.We concluded by identifying four pathways for reducing vulnerability:(1) encouraging scientific research cooperation;(2) constructing information-sharing channels;(3) establishing early-warning mechanisms;and(4) promoting further coordination and negotia-tion.

Runoff Change of Naoli River in Northeast China in 1955–2009 and Its Influencing Factors

Runoff change and trend of the Naoli River Basin were studied through the time series analysis using the data from the hydrological and meteorological stations. Time series of hydrological data were from 1957 to 2009 for Bao′an station, from 1955 to 2009 for Baoqing station, from 1956 to 2009 for Caizuizi station and from 1978 to 2009 for Hongqiling station. The influences of climate change and human activities on runoff change were investigated, and the causes of hydrological regime change were revealed. The seasonal runoff distribution of the Naoli River was extremely uneven, and the annual change was great. Overall, the annual runoff showed a significant decreasing trend. The annual runoff of Bao′an, Baoqing, and Caizuizi stations in 2009 decreased by 64.1%, 76.3%, and 84.3%, respectively, compared with their beginning data recorded. The wet and dry years of the Naoli River have changed in the study period. The frequency of wet year occurrence decreased and lasted longer, whereas that of dry year occurrence increased. The frequency of dry year occurrence increased from 25.0%-27.8% to 83.9%-87.5%. The years before the 1970s were mostly wet, whereas those after the 1970s were mostly dry. Precipitation reduction and land use changes contributed to the decrease in annual runoff. Rising temperature and water project construction have also contributed important effects on the runoff change of the Naoli River.

Maixi River estuary to the Baihua Reservoir in the Maotiao River catchment:phytoplankton community and environmental factors

Phytoplankton and environmental variables were measured monthly from July 2009 to August 2011 in the Maixi River from the estuary to Baihua Reservoir in the Maotiao River catchment, southwestern China, to understand phytoplankton community structure and environmental factors. The relationship between phytoplankton community structure and environmental factors including hydrological, meteorological, physical, and chemical variables were explored using multivariate analysis. A total of 81 taxa of phytoplankton were identified, which were mainly composed of chlorophyta, bacillariophyta, and cyanobacteria. The phytoplankton community was dominated by Pseudanabaena limnetica during summer and fall and by Cyclotella meneghiniana during winter and spring. The abundance of phytoplankton ranged from 0.24~ 104 cells/L to 33.45x 106 cells/L, with the minimum occurring during February 2010 and the maximum during July 2009. The phytoplankton community was dominated mainly by cyanobacteria from April to September, and by bacillariophyta and pyrrophyta from October to March. Canonical correspondence analysis showed that temperature, pH values, and orthophosphate were the most important driving factors regulating the composition and dynamics of the phytoplankton community in the estuary. Cyanobacteria and euglenophyta abundance and biomass were affected mainly by temperature and pH values, while most chlorophyta and bacillariophyta were influenced by the concentrations of nutrients.

Identifying Key Environmental Factors Influencing Spatial Variation of Water Quality in Upper Shitoukoumen Reservoir Basin in Jilin Province,China

Based on the observed data in monitored drainage areas and GIS spatial analysis tools,watershed basic database of Shitoukoumen Reservoir Basin was built.The multivariate analysis and redundancy analysis(RDA) were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of water quality,identify the key environmental factors and their patterns influencing the spatial variation of water quality,and determine the main types and forms of the non-point source(NPS) pollutant export controlled by the key environmental factors.The results show that different patterns of environmental factors lead to great changes in water quality at spatial and seasonal scales.All selected environmental factors explain 64.5% and 68.2% of the spatial variation of water quality over dry season and rainy season,respectively,which shows clear seasonal difference.Over dry season,residential land is the most important environmental factor,which possesses 35.4% of the spatial variation,and drainage area is the second key environmental factor,which possesses 17.0% of spatial variation in the total variance.Over rainy season,slope length and drainage area are the key environmental factors,which possess 29.3% of the spatial variation together.Residential land influences nitrogen export by changing NH4+-N and particulate organic nitrogen(PON) discharge over dry season,and drainage area controls phosphorus export by regulating dissolved phosphorus(DP) drainage over dry season and phosphorus associated particulate(PAP) loss over rainy season,respectively.Although slope length is an important environmental factor,it does not influence NPS pollutant export.It is interesting that soil organic matter,as a minor environmental factor,highly determines phosphorus and nitrogen export by enhancing the DP,PAP and PON loss.

Withdrawing from Agrarian Livelihoods: Environmental Migration in Nepal

Although about two-thirds of Nepalese families depend on agriculture as their major source of income, the agriculture is mostly rain-fed and it has been adversely affected by water hazards and the subsequent degradation of resources. Based on case studies from three different geographical regions in Nepal, this research examines how environmental factors cause decreasing crop production and push people to abandon agriculture and accept emigration for employment. The research findings suggest a chain of push factors starting from drought or erratic rainfall causing water hazards, which impacts on depletion of crops and livestock, losses in income and employment and increased human mobility and emigration. The paper argues that the Government of Nepal and development partners can be more effective in enabling agrarian families to cope with the water hazards and shocks by formulating pro-poor mitigation and adaptation policies and strategies,focusing both on ‘rapid-onset' and ‘slow-onset' water hazards.

Changes in Grain Production and the Optimal Spatial Allocation of Water Resources in China

Changes in grain production are decomposed and compared among nine major Chinese river basins for the sake of optimal water allocation. The results show that water-deficient northern China, especially the Songliao River Basin and Huai River Basin, contributed the greatest share of the total grain increment from 1995 to 2010. The Songliao River Basin achieved increased grain output largely by expanding multiple cropping, while the Huai River Basin achieved it mainly by improving the yield per unit area. With increased reliance on expanding irrigation and multi-cropping, most northern basins have high levels of agricultural water consumption, despite the rising share of corn, a lower water intensive crop. In contrast, over the same period the warm and humid south, traditionally a major rice-growing area, mostly experienced a sharp decline in rice cropping area and the Southeast Rivers Basin even reduced multiple cropping indexes, contributing to decreased agricultural water consumption. Implications of our findings and the need for tackling the imbalance of agricultural water use in grain production are discussed.

Denitrification Rates and Their Controlling Factors in Streams of the Han River Basin with Different Land-Use Patterns

Land-use patterns can affect various nutrient cycles in stream ecosystems, but little information is available about the effects of urban development on denitrification processes at the watershed scale. In the presented study, we investigated the controlling factors of denitrification rates within the streams of the Han River Basin, Korea, with different land-use patterns, in order to enhance the effectiveness of water resource management strategies. Ten watersheds were classified into three land-use patterns （forest, agriculture and urban） using satellite images and geographic information system techniques, and in-situ denitrification rates were determined using an acetylene blocking method. Additionally, sediment samples were collected from each stream to analyze denitrifier communities and abundance using molecular approaches. In-situ denitrification rates were found to be in the order of agricultural streams （289.6 mg N20-N m-2 d-1） 〉 urban streams （157.0 mg N20-N m-2 d-1） 〉 forested streams （41.9 mg N20-N m-2 d-l）. In contrast, the average quantity of denitrifying genes was the lowest in the urban streams. Genetic diversity of denitrifying genes was not affected by watershed land-use pattern, but exhibited stream-dependent pattern. More significance factors were involved in denitrification in the sites with higher denitrification rates. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed that clay, dissolved organic carbon and water contents were the main factors controlling denitrification rate in the agricultural streams, while dissolved organic carbon was the main controlling factor in the urban streams. In contrast, temperature appeared to be the main controlling factor in the forested streams.

Thermokarst lake changes between 1969 and 2010 in the Beilu River Basin, Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China

This work presents changes of thermokarst lakes from Beilu River Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over the past four decades （1969-2010） using aerial and satellite image interpretation. The results indicated that thermokarst lake activity had generally increased rapidly between 1969 and 2010. The number of thermokarst lakes had increased by approximately 534, and their coverage expanded by about 410 ha. The two main changes observed were an increase in the number of small lakes and the expansion of larger lakes. These changes are likely the result of persistent climate warming and a gradually increasing imbalance between precipitation and evapotranspiration （PET）. However, some non-climatic factors, such as the lake-bottom substrate and local engineering activities, have also influenced the lake changes. If air temperature and P-ET continue to rise, the number of thermokarst lakes and the area they cover may continue to increase in the future.