Probabilistic risk assessment （PRA） uses probability theory to quantify the probability of occurrence of an event. In this study, PRA was conducted for the discharge of excess nitrogen （N） from an agricultural （J...Probabilistic risk assessment （PRA） uses probability theory to quantify the probability of occurrence of an event. In this study, PRA was conducted for the discharge of excess nitrogen （N） from an agricultural （Jiulong River） watershed in Southeast China. Using fault tree analysis, a type of PRA, the probability of occurrence of excess N discharge into the river during a runoff event was evaluated both qualitatively and quantitatively. Land use maps, soil maps, fertilizer use records, and expert opinions were used to determine probabilities of individual events within the fault tree and to calculate the overall probability of excess N discharge during a runoff event. Qualitative analysis showed that the risk of excess N discharge was mainly related to crop and livestock practices in the watershed. Proper management of tillage, fertilizer, and manure was necessary to control N releases. Quantitative assessment results indicated that alternative practices including reduction of fertilization, installation of vegetative strip buffer around the pig farms, and installation of more riparian buffers along the Jiulong River could reduce the likelihood of N discharge through runoff.展开更多
andslide risk analysis is one of the primary studies providing essential instructions to the subsequent risk management process. The quantification of tangible and intangible potential losses is a critical step becau...andslide risk analysis is one of the primary studies providing essential instructions to the subsequent risk management process. The quantification of tangible and intangible potential losses is a critical step because it provides essential data upon which judgments can be made and policy can be formulated. This study aims at quantifying direct economic losses from debris flows at a medium scale in the study area in Italian Central Alps. Available hazard maps were the main inputs of this study. These maps were overlaid with information concerning elements at risk and their economic value. Then, a combination of both market and construction values was used to obtain estimates of future economic losses. As a result, two direct economic risk maps were prepared together with risk curves, useful to summarize expected monetary damage against the respective hazard probability. Afterwards, a qualitative risk map derived using a risk matrix officially provided by the set of laws issued by the regional government, was prepared. The results delimit areas of high economic as well as strategic importance which might be affected by debris flows in the future. Aside from limitations and inaccuracies inherently included in risk analysis process, identification of high risk areas allows local authorities to focus their attention on the “hot-spots”, where important consequences may arise and local （large） scale analysis needs to be performed with more precise cost-effectiveness ratio. The risk maps can be also used by the local authorities to increase population’s adaptive capacity in the disaster prevention process.展开更多
The water erosion prediction project （WEPP） model is a popular water erosion prediction tool developed on the basis of the physical processes of water erosion. Although WEPP has been widely used around the world, it...The water erosion prediction project （WEPP） model is a popular water erosion prediction tool developed on the basis of the physical processes of water erosion. Although WEPP has been widely used around the world, its application in China is still insufficient. In this study, the performance of WEPP used to estimate the runoff and soil loss on purple soil （Calcaric Regosols in FAO taxonomy） sloping cropland was assessed with the data from runoff plots under simulated rainfall conditions. Based on measured soil properties, runoff and erosion parameters, namely effective hydraulic conductivity, inter-rill erodibility, rill erodibility, and critical shear stress were determined to be 2.68 mm h-1, 5.54 x l0^6 kg s-1 m-4, 0.027 s m-1 and 3-5 Pa, respectively, by using the recommended equations in the WEPP user manual. The simulated results were not good due to the low Nash efficiency of 0.41 for runoff and negative Nash efficiency for soil loss. After the four parameters were calibrated, WEPP performed better for soil loss prediction with a Nash efficiency of 0.76. The different results indicated that the equations recommended by WEPP to calculate parameters such as erodiblity and critical shear stress are not suitable for the purple soil areas, Sichuan Province, China. Although the predicted results can be accepted by optimizing the runoff and erosion parameters, more research related to the determination of erodibility and critical sheer stress must be conducted to improve the application of WEPP in the purple soil areas.展开更多
The current economic crisis has left numerous residential developments in the southeastern United States in various stages of construction. Many of them are currently graded and essentially abandoned, creating a major...The current economic crisis has left numerous residential developments in the southeastern United States in various stages of construction. Many of them are currently graded and essentially abandoned, creating a major source of sediment runoff to waterways. Residential development locations with significant bare soil areas were identified through classification of Landsat 5 TM satellite imagery and subsequently verified from high-resolution county aerial photographs. The revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) was used in a geographic information system (GIS) as a tool for prioritizing identified locations on the basis of potential soil loss assuming the worst case scenario of a completely unmaintained site. Initial GIS identification indicated 301 sites with a total bare soil area of 2 378 ha over three counties in Upstate South Carolina. A random sample of 153 sites was visited over 17 days and assessed using a mobile GIS, global positioning system (GPS), and digital camera for field validation. Results indicated that 78% (119) of the sites were classified correctly (residential construction sites in varying stages of completion); 88% of identified areas were less than 25% built compared to the previous year; 48% were categorized as moderate to severe problems. Abandoned and unfinished developments in Upstate South Carolina may represent a major source of sediment pollution to streams. Well-maintained erosion control devices may be useful in preventing offsite sedimentation.展开更多
基金the Department of Science and Technology of Fujian Province,China (No.2002H009).
文摘Probabilistic risk assessment （PRA） uses probability theory to quantify the probability of occurrence of an event. In this study, PRA was conducted for the discharge of excess nitrogen （N） from an agricultural （Jiulong River） watershed in Southeast China. Using fault tree analysis, a type of PRA, the probability of occurrence of excess N discharge into the river during a runoff event was evaluated both qualitatively and quantitatively. Land use maps, soil maps, fertilizer use records, and expert opinions were used to determine probabilities of individual events within the fault tree and to calculate the overall probability of excess N discharge during a runoff event. Qualitative analysis showed that the risk of excess N discharge was mainly related to crop and livestock practices in the watershed. Proper management of tillage, fertilizer, and manure was necessary to control N releases. Quantitative assessment results indicated that alternative practices including reduction of fertilization, installation of vegetative strip buffer around the pig farms, and installation of more riparian buffers along the Jiulong River could reduce the likelihood of N discharge through runoff.
基金supported by the Marie Curie Research and Training Network "Mountain Risks" funded by the European Commission (2007–2010, Contract MCRTN-35098).
文摘andslide risk analysis is one of the primary studies providing essential instructions to the subsequent risk management process. The quantification of tangible and intangible potential losses is a critical step because it provides essential data upon which judgments can be made and policy can be formulated. This study aims at quantifying direct economic losses from debris flows at a medium scale in the study area in Italian Central Alps. Available hazard maps were the main inputs of this study. These maps were overlaid with information concerning elements at risk and their economic value. Then, a combination of both market and construction values was used to obtain estimates of future economic losses. As a result, two direct economic risk maps were prepared together with risk curves, useful to summarize expected monetary damage against the respective hazard probability. Afterwards, a qualitative risk map derived using a risk matrix officially provided by the set of laws issued by the regional government, was prepared. The results delimit areas of high economic as well as strategic importance which might be affected by debris flows in the future. Aside from limitations and inaccuracies inherently included in risk analysis process, identification of high risk areas allows local authorities to focus their attention on the “hot-spots”, where important consequences may arise and local （large） scale analysis needs to be performed with more precise cost-effectiveness ratio. The risk maps can be also used by the local authorities to increase population’s adaptive capacity in the disaster prevention process.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No. 40871134)the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University(Grant No.2007-KF-01)
文摘The water erosion prediction project （WEPP） model is a popular water erosion prediction tool developed on the basis of the physical processes of water erosion. Although WEPP has been widely used around the world, its application in China is still insufficient. In this study, the performance of WEPP used to estimate the runoff and soil loss on purple soil （Calcaric Regosols in FAO taxonomy） sloping cropland was assessed with the data from runoff plots under simulated rainfall conditions. Based on measured soil properties, runoff and erosion parameters, namely effective hydraulic conductivity, inter-rill erodibility, rill erodibility, and critical shear stress were determined to be 2.68 mm h-1, 5.54 x l0^6 kg s-1 m-4, 0.027 s m-1 and 3-5 Pa, respectively, by using the recommended equations in the WEPP user manual. The simulated results were not good due to the low Nash efficiency of 0.41 for runoff and negative Nash efficiency for soil loss. After the four parameters were calibrated, WEPP performed better for soil loss prediction with a Nash efficiency of 0.76. The different results indicated that the equations recommended by WEPP to calculate parameters such as erodiblity and critical shear stress are not suitable for the purple soil areas, Sichuan Province, China. Although the predicted results can be accepted by optimizing the runoff and erosion parameters, more research related to the determination of erodibility and critical sheer stress must be conducted to improve the application of WEPP in the purple soil areas.
基金Supported by the South Carolina Water Resources Centerthe Clemson University Public Service and Agriculture Next Generation Graduate Fellowship (PSA-NGGF), USATechnical Contribution No. 5903 of the Clemson University Experiment Station, USA
文摘The current economic crisis has left numerous residential developments in the southeastern United States in various stages of construction. Many of them are currently graded and essentially abandoned, creating a major source of sediment runoff to waterways. Residential development locations with significant bare soil areas were identified through classification of Landsat 5 TM satellite imagery and subsequently verified from high-resolution county aerial photographs. The revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) was used in a geographic information system (GIS) as a tool for prioritizing identified locations on the basis of potential soil loss assuming the worst case scenario of a completely unmaintained site. Initial GIS identification indicated 301 sites with a total bare soil area of 2 378 ha over three counties in Upstate South Carolina. A random sample of 153 sites was visited over 17 days and assessed using a mobile GIS, global positioning system (GPS), and digital camera for field validation. Results indicated that 78% (119) of the sites were classified correctly (residential construction sites in varying stages of completion); 88% of identified areas were less than 25% built compared to the previous year; 48% were categorized as moderate to severe problems. Abandoned and unfinished developments in Upstate South Carolina may represent a major source of sediment pollution to streams. Well-maintained erosion control devices may be useful in preventing offsite sedimentation.
