Application of a cost-sensitive method for churn prediction in telecommunication industry

To deal with the data mining problem of asymmetry misclassification cost, an innovative churn prediction method is proposed based on existing churn prediction research. This method adjusts the misclassification cost based on the C4. 5 decision tree as a baseline classifier, which can obtain the prediction model with a minimum error rate based on the assumption that all misclassifications have the same cost, to realize cost-sensitive learning. Results from customer data of a certain Chinese telecommunication company and the fact that the churners and the non-churners have different misclassification costs demonstrate that by altering the sampling ratio of churners and non-churners, this cost-sensitive learning method can considerably reduce the total misclassification cost produced by traditional classification methods. This method can also play an important role in promoting core competence of Chinese telecommunication industry.

AGENT-BASED WORKFLOW COORDINATION FOR SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

To align customer demand with suppliers for reducing work in process and supply costs and increasing re sp onsiveness to customer requirements, a real time collaborative supply chain mana gement system is essential. A solution to the realization of supply chain manage ment capable of timely responding to customer requirements is proposed. Workflow automation is used to manage process interaction across enterprises; Agents can be automatically invoked by supply chain workflow process and are used to pro mote the flexibility and reconfigurability by providing the mechanism in support of distributed compution in an enterprises to meet the requirements of performa nce and business dynamics. An approach that supports agent based workflow proce ss in a supply chain is proposed. And the coordination mechanism between agents is also discussed.

Bi-level programming model and algorithm for optimizing headway of public transit line

Due to the fact that headway is a key factor to be considered in bus scheduling, this paper proposes a bi-level programming model for optimizing bus headway in public transit lines. In this model, with the interests of bus companies and passengers in mind, the upper-level model＇s objective is to minimize the total cost, which is affected by frequency settings, both in time and economy in the transit system. The lower-level model is a transit assignment model used to describe the assignment of passengers＇ trips to the network based on the optimal bus headway. In order to solve the proposed model, a hybrid genetic algorithm, namely the genetic algorithm and the simulated annealing algorithm （GA-SA）, is designed. Finally, the model and the algorithm are tested against the transit data, by taking some of the bus lines of Changzhou city as an example. Results indicate that the proposed model allows supply and demand to be linked, which is reasonable, and the solving algorithm is effective.

長沙五一廣場東漢簡牘中的户籍問題

長沙五一廣場東漢簡中蘊含着重要的户籍信息。簡文中“伍長”“相比近知習”的記載,表明東漢的户籍管理仍然以居住地為單位,實行“比地為伍”的管理制度。簡文中“流客占屬”“流客留占著”“隨人在所占”“安民史”的記載,表明東漢長沙地區有不少外來人口著籍當地。簡文中“户曹掾史”“户曹史”“左户曹史”“户曹助史”,以及“占數”“自占名”“定名數”“皆有名數”等記載,表明東漢的户籍管理機構完善,人口管理嚴格。東漢的户籍制度承襲秦、西漢而來。

Metro passenger flow control with station-to-station cooperation based on stop-skipping and boarding limiting

Metro passenger flow control problem is studied under given total inbound demand in this work,which considers passenger demand control and train capacity supply.Relevant connotations are analyzed and a mathematical model is developed.The decision variables are boarding limiting and stop-skipping strategies and the objective is the maximal passenger profit.And a passenger original station choice model based on utility theory is built to modify the inbound passenger distribution among stations.Algorithm of metro passenger flow control scheme is designed,where two key technologies of stopping-station choice and headway adjustment are given and boarding limiting and train stopping-station scheme are optimized.Finally,a real case of Beijing metro is taken for example to verify validity.The results show that in the three scenarios with different ratios of normal trains to stop-skipping trains,the total limited passenger volume is the smallest and the systematic profit is the largest in scenario 3.

Identification method of crowded passenger flow based on automatic fare collection data of Nanjing Metro

To relieve traffic congestion in urban rail transit stations,a new identification method of crowded passenger flow based on automatic fare collection data is proposed.First,passenger travel characteristics are analyzed by observing the temporal distribution of inflow passengers each hour and the spatial distribution concerning cross-section passenger flow.Secondly,the identification method of crowded passenger flow is proposed to calculate the threshold via the probability density function fitted by Matlab and classify the early-warning situation based on the threshold obtained.Finally,a case study of Xinjiekou station is conducted to prove the validity and practicability of the proposed method.Compared to the traditional methods,the proposed comprehensive method can remove defects such as efficiency and delay.Furthermore,the proposed method is suitable for other rail transit companies equipped with automatic fare collection systems.

Regression model for daily passenger volume of high-speed railway line under capacity constraint

A non-linear regression model is proposed to forecast the aggregated passenger volume of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway(HSR) line in China. Train services and temporal features of passenger volume are studied to have a prior knowledge about this high-speed railway line. Then, based on a theoretical curve that depicts the relationship among passenger demand, transportation capacity and passenger volume, a non-linear regression model is established with consideration of the effect of capacity constraint. Through experiments, it is found that the proposed model can perform better in both forecasting accuracy and stability compared with linear regression models and back-propagation neural networks. In addition to the forecasting ability, with a definite formation, the proposed model can be further used to forecast the effects of train planning policies.

Probabilistic interval prediction of metro-to-bus transfer passenger flow in the trip chain

To accurately analyze the fluctuation range of time-varying differences in metro-to-bus transfer passenger flows,the application of a probabilistic interval prediction model is proposed to predict transfer passenger flows.First,bus and metro data are processed and matched by association to construct the basis for public transport trip chain extraction.Second,a reasonable matching threshold method to discriminate the transfer relationship is used to extract the public transport trip chain,and the basic characteristics of the trip based on the trip chain are analyzed to obtain the metro-to-bus transfer passenger flow.Third,to address the problem of low accuracy of point prediction,the DeepAR model is proposed to conduct interval prediction,where the input is the interchange passenger flow,the output is the predicted median and interval of passenger flow,and the prediction scenarios are weekday,non-workday,and weekday morning and evening peaks.Fourth,to reduce the prediction error,a combined particle swarm optimization(PSO)-DeepAR model is constructed using the PSO to optimize the DeepAR model.Finally,data from the Beijing Xizhimen subway station are used for validation,and results show that the PSO-DeepAR model has high prediction accuracy,with a 90%confidence interval coverage of up to 93.6%.

Combination forecast for urban rail transit passenger flow based on fuzzy information granulation and CPSO-LS-SVM

In order to obtain the trend of urban rail transit traffic flow and grasp the fluctuation range of passenger flow better,this paper proposes a combined forecasting model of passenger flow fluctuation range based on fuzzy information granulation and least squares support vector machine(LS-SVM)optimized by chaos particle swarm optimization(CPSO).Due to the nonlinearity and fluctuation of the passenger flow,firstly,fuzzy information granulation is used to extract the valid data from the window according to the requirement.Secondly,CPSO that has strong global search ability is applied to optimize the parameters of the LS-SVM forecasting model.Finally,the combined model is used to forecast the fluctuation range of early peak passenger flow at Tiyu Xilu Station of Guangzhou Metro Line 3 in 2014,and the results are compared and analyzed with other models.Simulation results demonstrate that the combined forecasting model can effectively track the fluctuation of passenger flow,which provides an effective method for predicting the fluctuation range of short-term passenger flow in the future.

Effects of the Percolation Patterns and the Thickness of Soil Dressing on Reducing Cadmium Uptake and and Yields of Rice Plants （Oryza Sativa L.）

The objective of this study is to clarify the effects of the thickness of soil dressing, the percolation patterns of plowsole and subsoil on reducing cadmium （Cd） uptake, and growth and yields of rice plants. Six stratified paddy field models, three patterns of soil dressing layer and two percolation patterns were used for the experiments. These models had 12.5 cm, 15.0 cm and 25.0 cm thickness of soil dressing layer and 15 cm thickness of underlying polluted soil layer, whose Cd concentration was about 1.81 mg·kg^-1. As a result Cd concentration of brown rice was lower than 0.04 mg·kg^-1 for the models with the close system percolation, while that in the open system percolation models were lower than 0.17 mg.kgl.When the thickness of soil dressing became lower, Cd concentrations with the open system percolation models showed significantly higher values than those of the other models （5% of significant level）. But any significant difference was not found in the growth and yield among these models. As above mentioned, it was found that Cd concentration in rice grains was affected by the thickness of soil dressing and percolation patterns.

Research on Behavior on Travel Mode, Going to Metro Station at Ho Chi Minh City

This research presents an analysis of travel mode choice for trips to Ho Chi Minh City metro station. Research methods were inherited through a formula to calculate passenger traffic forecasts to predict passengers, going to the station. Based on the collected data of interviews, traffic surveys, and ＂Irwin ＆ Von Cube＂ function, forecast the proportion of travel mode, and use to go to the station and leaving from the station. The results of study are used for the purpose of calculating the size of the metro station parking lots and parking layout plan.

Logistics Management based on Supply Chain Management

Logistics is an important part of the supply chain and connect all aspects of the supply chain throughout it, which has become business cooperation ties. In the process of developing supply chain logistics strategy, generally require attention to the following questions： To segment customers, we should determine the appropriate level of customer service, such as order cycle, inventory levels and other modes of transport for different types of clients; Group products according to sales on them, we can take different strategies for each category of products. Order entry, order execution and delivery job processing accounted for a large proportion of logistics activities, which requires technology and management to make the entire processes of supply chain logistics more efficient, especially for the interface area between members of enterprises. We can eliminate redundant work by integrating flow, improve logistics efficiency.

A Descriptive-Correlation Research to Explain Potential of BPR

Increases in consumer requirements for both product and service efficiency and effectiveness have resulted in business process reengineering （BPR）. The re-engineering of business processes is concerned with fundamentally rethinking and redesigning business processes to obtain dramatic and sustaining improvements in quality, cost, service, lead-times, outcomes, flexibility and innovation （Hammer ＆ Champy, 1993）. Nowadays, banking industry has reduced structural barriers to competition in domestic markets by abolishing interest rates ceilings on deposits and lending by financial intermediaries in the world. Iran also has not been expected. According to the government＇s decision, the interest rate is going down to be around 9% （before： 22%, and right now： 15%）, and this decision is very risky for the banks in Iran. On these reasons cited above, the banks should employ some strategies to solve their problems. It is because the customers have a vital and key role in this sector, and the banks are dependent to them, 13PR is one strategy to help them in this competitive situation. BPR implementation can provide them, to survive in this better customer service, as well as improvement and management of customer expectations satisfaction and loyalty （Winer, 2001）. This study is a descriptive-correlation research to explain effect of BPR on strengthening of banking sector, focus on customer satisfaction as potential of I^PR. The focus of attention with such applications is customer satisfaction. In this research, a questionnaire was developed containing 18 items each items employed a 7-piont instrument developed to find existent relationship between BPR implementation and customer satisfaction, relationship between employee＇s productivity and efficiency and satisfaction level of customer and also effect of information technology on accomplishment of BPR. In order to validate the instrument, validity and reliability tests were performed and to get reliability. Alpha kronbakh has computed according a pilot study as shown in following items： r HI （with 5 factors） = 75.7%; r H2 （with 7 factors） = 75%; r H3 （with 5 factors） = 81%; R total： （with 17 factors） = 92%

Evaluation of the Websites of Logistics Operators by Customers

In this article, the results were presented of research concerning the visual and functional aspects of the websites of three largest logistics operators in Poland. The research was carried out with the participation of the following three groups： institutional customers, individual customers and marketing management students. The article covers an attempt to evaluate cooperation through virtual contacts with the company. The analysis also concerned such issues as information on corporate social responsibility （CSR）, information on job offers and the position of the company on the market.

You Blog： An Exploratory Study of EFL Students＇ Blogging Experience in the Thai-Japanese Weblog Exchange Project

Weblogs, writing logs on the web, have been popularly used as an instructional tool to facilitate, reading and writing instructions in ESL （English as a Second Language）/EFL （English as a Foreign Language） classrooms. This study employed weblogs to support the writing process of Thai EFL students and provided an opportunity for them to participate in a Thai-Japanese weblog exchange project. The results showed that student bloggers： （1） enjoyed blogging due to their perceived reading and writing incentives, the exchange of cultural knowledge, and networking; and （2） employed the writing process to complete their written assignments. Findings suggest that weblogs can foster EFL learners＇ motivation, development of reading and writing skills, and development of cultural knowledge, and facilitate their writing process via cyberspace.

Boost Cruise Development by Improving the Personnel Training Level

With the frequent international communication, cruise tourism is no longer a strange way of entertainment for visitors in our country. Especially in recent years, Chinese outbound tourism continues to increase. Last year, the number has reached nearly one hundred million. The cruise tourism as an important way of outbound tourism has also been favored by a number of people of all ages. At the same time, in our country Shanghai, Tianjin, Xiamen and Sanya had built facilities and relatively complete cruise home port, which receive visitors from all over the world and large international passenger liner. However, because Chinese cruise industry started relatively late, talent cultivation is relatively backward, which results in cruise talent gap. This paper is based on the current situation of the development of the cruise industry in our country, comprehensively and objectively analysis the demand of talents on the cruise, and aims to put forward some suggestions for the training of the cruise personnel in our country.

Communicating About Translation： Task-based Speaking

This study views pedagogical translation as a means of developing language skills, especially oral communication. Contrary to the claim that translation focuses only on reading and writing, this study presents anecdotal evidence showing that a learner-centered approach to translation can help foreign language students improve their speaking skill through group work, problem-solving, and cooperative learning. To this end, the paper presents practical examples of lexical, structural, textual, and cultural issues that students discussed in their process-oriented Arabic-English-Arabic pedagogical translation courses at the university level. The students were divided into groups of three or four to work together at all stages of the translation process. They spent most of the class time comprehending the source text, translating it, and discussing each other＇s target versions. In the remaining class time, the whole class discussed a target text translated by any one of the groups. The students were instructed to use English in their group and whole-class deliberations. They were also instructed to use the appropriate language functions, structures, and expressions to achieve objectivity in their arguments. The study calls for further empirical research to verify the usefulness of the proposed learner-centered translation-based technique of teaching speaking

Passenger Flow Status Evaluation in Subway Station Based on Probabilistic Neural Network

This paper select the escalator with large flow in the station as the object, analysing the correlation of the AFC data of the in and out gates and the passenger flow parameters by passenger flow density and the passing time acquired and calculated in the waiting area of the prediction escalator to select the gates related to the predicted the escalator. NARX neural network is used to predict the model of the passenger flow parameters of the escalator waiting area based on the related gates＇ AFC data, then a probabilistic neural network model was established by using the AFC data and predicted passenger flow parameters as input and the passenger flow status in the escalator waiting area of subway station as output.The result shows the predicting model can predict the passenger flow status of the escalator waiting area better by the AFC data in the subway station. Research result can provide decision basis for the operation management of the subway station.

Accounts receivable management research, take the construction industry for example

Accounts receivables are amounts that customers owe on account, which resulting from sale goods and services. Compames generally expect to collect accounts receivable within 30 to 60 days. Sales and profits can be increased by granting customers the privileges of making payment a month or more after the date of sale. The accounts receivable play significant important role in company＇ s flow of funds, lots of companies was bankrupted and going bankrupt because capital turnover is so bad in reality, so that how to strength the management of the accounts receivable becomes the key in the process of making the industry survive and develop. Especially the construction industry, it will produce a large amount of the accounts receivable because of the it ＇ s own character of whole industry. This text will to come up with the corresponding countermeasure by analyzing accounts receivable management situation and the influence to companies and forming causes.

Migration to Software-Defined Networks:the Customers' View

Software Defined Networking(SDN) provides a flexible and convenient way to support fine-grained traffic-engineering(TE). Besides, SDN also provides better Quality of Experience(QoE) for customers. However, the policy of the evolution from legacy networks to the SDNs overemphasizes the controllability of the network or TE while ignoring the customers' benefit. Standing in the customers' position, we propose an optimization scheme, named as Optimal Migration Schedule based on Customers' Benefit(OMSB), to produce an optimized migration schedule and maximize the benefit of customers. Not only the quality and quantity of paths availed by migration, but also the number of flows from the customers that can use these multi-paths are taken into consideration for the scheduling. We compare the OMSB with other six migration schemes in terms of the benefit of customers. Our results suggest that the sequence of the migration plays a vital role for customers, especially in the early stages of the network migration to the SDN.