In this paper,an improved Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible(SIS) epidemic spreading model is proposed in order to provide a theoretical method to analyze and predict the spreading of diseases.This model is based on the...In this paper,an improved Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible(SIS) epidemic spreading model is proposed in order to provide a theoretical method to analyze and predict the spreading of diseases.This model is based on the following ideas:in social networks,the contact probability between nodes is decided by their social distances and their active degrees.The contact probability of two indirectly connected nodes is decided by the shortest path between them.Theoretical analysis and simulation experiment were conducted to evaluate the performance of this improved model.Because the proposed model is independent of the network structure,simulation experiments were done in several kinds of networks,namely the ER network,the random regular network,the WS small world network,and the BA scale-free network,in order to study the influences of certain factors have on the epidemic spreading,such as the social contact active degree,the network structure,the average degree,etc.This improved model provides an idea for studying the spreading rule of computer virus,attitudes,fashion styles and public opinions in social networks.展开更多
United Nations Political Declaration 2011 on HIV and AIDS calls to reduce the sexual transmission and the transmission of HIV among people, who inject drugs by 50% by 2015, through different control strategies and pre...United Nations Political Declaration 2011 on HIV and AIDS calls to reduce the sexual transmission and the transmission of HIV among people, who inject drugs by 50% by 2015, through different control strategies and precautionary measures. In this paper, we propose and study a simple SI type model that considers the effect of various precaution- ary measures to control HIV epidemic. We show, unlike conventional epidemic models, that the basic reproduction number which essentially considered as the disease eradica- tion condition is no longer sufficient to eliminate HIV infection. In particular, we show that even when the basic reproduction number is made less than unity, the disease may persist if the initial outbreak is not low. Eradication of disease is however guaranteed if the ensemble control measure exceeds some upper critical value. It is also shown that an epidemic model with mass action incidence may exhibit backward bifurcation and bistability if density-dependent demography is considered. Our theoretical study thus indicates that extra attention should be given in controlling HIV epidemic to achieve the desired result.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China 61301091Shaanxi Province Science and Technology Project 2015GY015
文摘In this paper,an improved Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible(SIS) epidemic spreading model is proposed in order to provide a theoretical method to analyze and predict the spreading of diseases.This model is based on the following ideas:in social networks,the contact probability between nodes is decided by their social distances and their active degrees.The contact probability of two indirectly connected nodes is decided by the shortest path between them.Theoretical analysis and simulation experiment were conducted to evaluate the performance of this improved model.Because the proposed model is independent of the network structure,simulation experiments were done in several kinds of networks,namely the ER network,the random regular network,the WS small world network,and the BA scale-free network,in order to study the influences of certain factors have on the epidemic spreading,such as the social contact active degree,the network structure,the average degree,etc.This improved model provides an idea for studying the spreading rule of computer virus,attitudes,fashion styles and public opinions in social networks.
文摘United Nations Political Declaration 2011 on HIV and AIDS calls to reduce the sexual transmission and the transmission of HIV among people, who inject drugs by 50% by 2015, through different control strategies and precautionary measures. In this paper, we propose and study a simple SI type model that considers the effect of various precaution- ary measures to control HIV epidemic. We show, unlike conventional epidemic models, that the basic reproduction number which essentially considered as the disease eradica- tion condition is no longer sufficient to eliminate HIV infection. In particular, we show that even when the basic reproduction number is made less than unity, the disease may persist if the initial outbreak is not low. Eradication of disease is however guaranteed if the ensemble control measure exceeds some upper critical value. It is also shown that an epidemic model with mass action incidence may exhibit backward bifurcation and bistability if density-dependent demography is considered. Our theoretical study thus indicates that extra attention should be given in controlling HIV epidemic to achieve the desired result.
