疾病传播动力学研究中的流行模拟方法

目的:建立疾病传播动力学研究中模拟流行的方法。方法:在建立传染病传播动力学模型的基础上,采用Van guard DecisionPro软件中的Markov模型方法模拟疾病流行,以北京SARS流行模拟及模型的抽象研究为例说明其应用。结果:DecisionPro Markov模型可以直观地描述疾病传播动力学模型。在Markov模型中,各模型参数取值可以随时调整,并可通过编程实现;可以观察模型状态变量的实时变化,预测疾病的流行趋势;通过敏感性分析功能,可以研究模型变量之间相互作用的规律;通过想定研究方法,可以定量评价输入参数变化对流行的影响。实例研究发现,该方法很适合流行模拟研究,可以用于干预措施效果的定量评价。结论:DecisionPro Markov模型方法是一种较为理想的模拟疾病流行的方法,可以用于传播动力学模型的抽象研究。

小麦条锈病大区流行的模型模拟

利用小麦条锈病品种-小种群体间相互关系模型即大区流行模型,PANCRIN,进行了模拟试验。模拟试验结果导致了如下推测或假想,如;1.陇南半山麦田的自生麦苗在大区流行中作用最大,但大区流行周年循环除冬麦和春麦→自生苗→冬麦这一主要路线外,可能还有一条冬麦→晚熟春麦→早播冬麦的次要路线。2.陇冬早播冬麦区在大区流行秋季菌源传播中的桥梁作用虽可肯定,但陇南 L2、L3自生苗上的菌源对关中、黄淮、江淮麦区 L7、L8、L9的作用仍然很大。3.消灭自生麦苗,必需把密度消减到历史最大密度的10%才能明显见效。4.不论新小种产生的突变率 MU 大小,全大区范围的品种布局比局布地区的,对延长广大平原麦区的品种抗病性更为有效;等等。这些结果一部分与已有经验或看法基本符合,另一部分则可为未知问题和有争议的问题的研究解决提供参考。

3D modeling for effect of tool eccentricity on coupled thermal and material flow characteristics during friction stir welding

A novel three-dimensional numerical model is proposed to investigate the effect of tool eccentricity on the coupled thermal and material flow characteristics in friction stir welding(FSW) process.An asymmetrical boundary condition at the tool-workpiece interface,and the dynamic mesh technique are both employed for the consideration of the tool eccentricity during tool rotating.It is found that tool eccentricity induces the periodical variation of the heat densities both at the tool-workpiece interface and inside the shear layer,but the fluctuation amplitudes of the heat density variations are limited.However,it is demonstrated that tool eccentricity results in significant variation of the material flow behavior in one tool rotating period.Moreover,the material velocity variation at the retreating side is particularly important for the formation of the periodic characteristics in FSW.The modeling result is found to be in good agreement with the experimental one.

植物病害时空流行动态模拟模型的构建

一个描述在二维空间中单一种植或混合种植的植物群体内病害时、空流行动态的计算机随机模拟模型构建完成。模型由寄主、病原2个组分和病斑产孢、孢子传播、孢子着落、孢子侵染、病斑潜育、寄主生长、病害控制等一系列代表病害流行生物学过程的子模型构成。模型采用了面向对象的程序设计方法．用C++语言编写，能以病害流行曲线图、空间分布图、

Three-dimensional Simulation of Gas/Solid Flow in Spout-fluid Beds with Kinetic Theory of Granular Flow

A three-dimensional Eulerian multiphase model, with closure law according to the kinetic theory of granular flow, was used to study the gas/solid flow behaviors in spout-fluid beds. The influences of the coefficient of restitution due to non-ideal particle collisions on the simulated results were tested. It is demonstrated that the simulated result is strongly affected by the coefficient of restitution. Comparison of simulations with experiments in a small spout-fluid bed showed that an appropriate coefficient of restitution of 0.93 was necessary to simulate the flow characteristics in an underdesigned large size of spout-fluid bed coal gasifier with diameter of lm and height of 6m. The internal jet and gas/solid flow patterns at different operating conditions were obtained. The simulations show that an optimal gas/solid flow pattern for coal gasification is found when the spouting gas flow rate is equal to the fluidizing gas flow rate and the total of them is two and a half times the minimum fluidizing gas flow rate. Besides, the radial distributions of particle velocity and gas velocity show similar tendencies; the radial distributions of particle phase pressure due to particle collisions and the particle pseudo-temperature corresponding to the macroscopic kinetic energy of the random particle motion also show similar tendencies. These indicate that both gas drag force and particle collisions dominate the movement of particles.

Numerical simulation of heat transfer and flow of cooling air in triangular wavy fin channels

Numerical computation models of air cooling heat transfer and flow behaviors in triangular wavy fin channels(TWFC) were established with structural parameters of fins considered.The air side properties of heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop are displayed with variable structural parameters of fins and inlet velocities of cooling air.Within the range of simulation,TWFC has the best comprehensive performance when inlet velocity vin=4-10 m/s.Compared with those of straight fins,the simulation results reveal that the triangular wavy fin channels are of higher heat transfer performances especially with the fin structural parameters of fin-height Fh=9.0 mm,fin-pitch Fp=2.5-3.0 mm,fin-wavelength λ=14.0-17.5 mm and fin-wave-amplitude A=1.0-1.2 mm.The correlations of both heat transfer factor and friction factor are presented,and the deviations from the experimental measurements are within 20%.

Rheological behavior of continuous roll casting process of aluminum alloy

The rheological behavior of aluminum alloy and its influencing factors in physical simulation of continuous roll casting process were studied by using a Gleeble-1500 thermal-mechanical simulation tester with a set of special clamp system. The relationships between the flow stress and the strain rate in the deformation process of simulating roll casting experiment were obtained. The results show that four different characteristic stages exist in the temperature range of the whole rheological process. The first occurs when the temperature is higher than 600 ℃, which belongs to the creep deformation stage; the second occurs when the temperature lies in the range of 500600 ℃, and it can be regarded as the high temperature and low stress level deformation stage; the third occurs when the temperature decreases to the range of 300500 ℃, it is considered to be the middle stress level deformation stage; the last occurs when the temperature is less than 300 ℃ and the strain rate is less than 1.00 s -1, it belongs to middle stress level deformation stage. But when the strain rate is larger than 1.00 s -1,it belongs to the high stress level deformation stage. And the relative constitutive models suitable for the four different stages of continuous roll casting process were established through multivariate linear regression analysis of the experimental data.

Molecular dynamics simulation of water transport through graphene-based nanopores: Flow behavior and structure characteristics

The flow behavior of pressure-driven water infiltration through graphene-based slit nanopores has been studied by molecular simulation.The simulated flow rate is close to the experimental values,which demonstrates the reasonability of simulation results.Water molecules can spontaneously infiltrate into the nanopores,but an external driving force is generally required to pass through the whole pores.The exit of nanopore has a large obstruction on the water effusion.The flow velocity within the graphene nanochannels does not display monotonous dependence upon the pore width,indicating that the flow is related to the microscopic structures of water confined in the nanopores.Extensive structures of confined water are characterized in order to understand the flow behavior.This simulation improves the understanding of graphene-based nanofluidics,which helps in developing a new type of membrane separation technique.

Numerical Simulation of Dam Breaking Using Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics and Viscosity Behavior

Smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is a Lagrangian meshless particle method. It is one of the best method for simulating violent free surface flows in fluids and solving large fluid deformations. Dam breaking is a typical example of these problems. The basis of SPH was reviewed, including some techniques for governing equation resolution, such as the stepping method and the boundary handling method. Then numerical results of a dam breaking simulation were discussed, and the benefits of concepts like artificial viscosity and position correction were analyzed in detail. When compared with dam breaking simulated by the volume of fluid (VOF) method, the wave profile generated by SPH had good agreement, but the pressure had only reasonable agreement. Improving pressure results is clearly an important next step for research.

CFD Simulation of Flow and Mass Transfer in Structured Packing Distillation Columns

Detailed investigation of flow behavior in structured packing distillation columns is of great importance in accurate prediction of process efficiency and development of more efficient and optimal equipment internals. In this study, a three-dimensional two-phase flow model based on VOF method for simulating the hydrodynamics and mass-transfer behavior in a typical representative unit of the structured packing is developed. In the proposed model, the c 2 - ε c model is used for the closure of turbulent mass transfer equation. By solving the proposed model, the velocity distribution, phase fraction profile and concentration field are obtained. Using these data, the total liquid holdup, the wetted area and the separation efficiency [height equivalent to a theoretical plate (HETP)] are estimated. For testing the model validation, the simulated HETPs are compared with our previous experimental data obtained in a 150 mm-diameter column containing Mellapak 350Y operating at the pressures of 0.6-1.8 MPa. The compari-son shows that they are in satisfactory agreement, with an average absolute deviation (AAD) of 25.4%.

Station Model for Rail Transit System Using Cellular Automata

In this paper, we propose a new cellular automata model to simulate the railway traffic at station. Based on NaSch model, the proposed station model is composed of the main track and the siding track. Two different schemes for trains passing through station are considered. One is the scheme of ＂pass by the main track, start and stop by the siding track＂. The other is the scheme of ＂two tracks play the same role＂. We simulate the train movement using the proposed model and analyze the traffic flow at station. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed cellular automata model can be successfully used for the simulations of railway traffic. Some characteristic behaviors of railway traffic flow can be reproduced. Moreover, the simulation values of the minimum headway are close to the theoretical values. This result demonstrates the dependability and availability of the proposed model.

Computational fluid dynamic simulations on liquid film behaviors at flooding in an inclined pipe

The complex liquid film behaviors at flooding in an inclined pipe were investigated with computational fluid dynamic(CFD) approaches. The liquid film behaviors included the dynamic wave characteristics before flooding and the transition of flow pattern when flooding happened. The influences of the surface tension and liquid viscosity were specially analyzed. Comparisons of the calculated velocity at the onset of flooding with the available experimental results showed a good agreement. The calculations verify that the fluctuation frequency and the liquid film thickness are almost unaffected by the superficial gas velocity until the flooding is triggered due to the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability. When flooding triggered at the superficial liquid velocity larger than0.15 m·s-1, the interfacial wave developed to slug flow, while it developed to entrainment flow when it was smaller than 0.08 m·s-1. The interfacial waves were more easily torn into tiny droplets with smaller surface tension, eventually evolving into the mist flow. When the liquid viscosity increases, the liquid film has a thicker holdup with more intensive fluctuations, and more likely developed to the slug flow.

A Potential Flow Based Flight Simulator for an Underwater Glider

Underwater gliders are recent innovative types of autonomous underwater vehicles （AUVs） used in ocean exploration and observation. They adjust their buoyancy to dive and to return to the ocean surface. During the change of altitude, they use the hydrodynamic forces developed by their wings to move forward. Their flights are controlled by changing the position of their centers of gravity and their buoyancy to adjust their trim and heel angles. For better flight control, the understanding of the hydrodynamic behavior and the flight mechanics of the underwater glider is necessary. A 6-DOF motion simulator is coupled with an unsteady potential flow model for this purpose. In some specific cases, the numerical study demonstrates that an inappropriate stabilizer dimension can cause counter-steering behavior. The simulator can be used to improve the automatic flight control. It can also be used for the hydrodynamic design optimization of the devices.

Simulations of Bingham plastic flows with the multiple-relaxation-time lattice Boltzmann model

Fresh cement mortar is a type of workable paste, which can be well approximated as a Bingham plastic and whose flow behavior is of major concern in engineering. In this paper, Papanastasiou＇s model for Bingham fluids is solved by using the multiple- relaxation-time lattice Boltzmann model （MRT-LB）. Analysis of the stress growth exponent m in Bingham fluid flow simulations shows that Papanastasiou＇s model provides a good approximation of realistic Bingham plastics for values of m 〉 108. For lower values of m, Papanastasiou＇s model is valid for fluids between Bingham and Newtonian fluids. The MRT-LB model is validated by two benchmark problems： 2D steady Poiseuille flows and lid-driven cavity flows. Comparing the numerical results of the velocity distributions with corresponding analytical solutions shows that the MRT-LB model is appropriate for studying Bingham fluids while also providing better numerical stability. We further apply the MRT-LB model to simulate flow through a sudden expansion channel and the flow surrounding a round particle. Besides the rich flow structures obtained in this work, the dynamics fhi d force on the round particle is calculated. Results show that both the Reynolds number Re and the Bingham number Bn affect the drag coefficients Co, and a drag coefficient with Re and Bn being taken into account is proposed. The relationship of Bn and the ratio of unyielded zone thickness to particle diameter is also analyzed. Finally, the Bingham fluid flowing around a set of randomly dispersed particles is simulated to obtain the apparent viscosity and velocity fields. These results help simulation of fresh concrete flowing in porous media.

Investigations on the Flow Field in an Unshrouded Pump Impeller Geometry

Transient CFD simulations are performed to investigate the flow behaviour inside an unshrouded pump using the SAS method. Two blade designs are compared at two different tip clearances and the results are validated by measurements. The detected vortex structure is visualized by the normalized helicity, further discussed regarding its development and behaviour and finally implicated to the efficiency of the two different blade designs.

Implementation of the moving particle semi-implicit method on GPU

The Moving Particle Semi-implicit (MPS) method performs well in simulating violent free surface flow and hence becomes popular in the area of fluid flow simulation. However, the implementations of searching neighbouring particles and solving the large sparse matrix equations (Poisson-type equation) are very time-consuming. In order to utilize the tremendous power of parallel computation of Graphics Processing Units (GPU), this study has developed a GPU-based MPS model employing the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) on NVIDIA GTX 280. The efficient neighbourhood particle searching is done through an indirect method and the Poisson-type pressure equation is solved by the Bi-Conjugate Gradient (BiCG) method. Four different optimization levels for the present general parallel GPU-based MPS model are demonstrated. In addition, the elaborate optimization of GPU code is also discussed. A benchmark problem of dam-breaking flow is simulated using both codes of the present GPU-based MPS and the original CPU-based MPS. The comparisons between them show that the GPU-based MPS model outperforms 26 times the traditional CPU model.

Global stability of multi-group SEIRS epidemic models with vaccination

In this paper, a susceptible-exposed infective-recovered-susceptible （SEIRS） epidemic model with vaccination has been formulated. We studied the global stability of the corresponding single-group model, multi-group model with strongly connected network and multi-group model without strongly connected network by means of analyzing their basic reproduction numbers and the application of Lyapunov functionals. Finally, we provide some numerical simulations to illustrate our analysis results.

GLOBAL STABILITY OF AN EPIDEMIC MODEL FOR VECTOR-BORNE DISEASE

This paper considers an epidemic model of a vector-borne disease which has the vectormediated transmission only. The incidence term is of the bilinear mass-action form. It is shown that the global dynamics is completely determined by the basic reproduction number Ro. If Ro ≤ 1, the diseasefree equilibrium is globally stable and the disease dies out. If Ro 〉 1, a unique endemic equilibrium is globally stable in the interior of the feasible region and the disease persists at the endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.

A SIMPLE DISCRETE-TIME ANALOGUE PRESERVING THE GLOBAL STABILITY OF A CONTINUOUS SIRS EPIDEMIC MODEL

In this paper, we consider the backward Euler discretization derived from a continuous SIRS epidemic model, which contains a remaining problem that our discrete model has two solutions for infected population; one is positive and the other is negative. Under an additional positiveness condition on infected population, we show that the backward Euler discretization is one of simple discrete-time analogue which preserves the global asymptotic stability of equilibria of the corresponding continuous model.