This paper analyzed the existing methods of wave measurement, and described the advantages of GPS applied in measuring the wave. The equations of absolute velocity estimation were discussed, focusing on two methods wi...This paper analyzed the existing methods of wave measurement, and described the advantages of GPS applied in measuring the wave. The equations of absolute velocity estimation were discussed, focusing on two methods with Doppler shill. The error sources and their effect on velocity estimation were analyzed. Then, some tests were carried on to simulate dynamic velocity determination using static data Based on the high-frequency carrier-phase derived Doppler observations, the velocity has been estimated to the precision of 1 cm/s or so, even to the mm/s level. And with the receiver generated Doppler measurements, the precision can reach 3 - 15 cm/s.展开更多
Although extended-range forecasting has exceeded the limit of daily predictability of weather,there are still partially predictable characteristics of meteorological fields in such forecasts.A targeted forecast scheme...Although extended-range forecasting has exceeded the limit of daily predictability of weather,there are still partially predictable characteristics of meteorological fields in such forecasts.A targeted forecast scheme and strategy for extended-range predictable components is proposed.Based on chaotic characteristics of the atmosphere,predictable components and unpredictable random components are separated by using the standpoint of error growth in a numerical model.The predictable components are defined as those with slow error growth at a given range,which are not sensitive to small errors in initial conditions. A numerical model for predictable components(NMPC)is established,by filtering random components with poor predictability.The aim is to maintain predictable components and avoid the influence of rapidly growing forecast errors on small scales. Meanwhile,the analogue-dynamical approach(ADA)is used to correct forecast errors of predictable components,to decrease model error and statistically take into account the influence of random components.The scheme is applied to operational dynamical extended-range forecast(DERF)model of the National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration (NCC/CMA).Prediction results show that the scheme can improve forecast skill of predictable components to some extent, especially in high predictability regions.Forecast skill at zonal wave zero is improved more than for ultra-long waves and synoptic-scale waves.Results show good agreement with predictability of spatial scale.As a result,the scheme can reduce forecast errors and improve forecast skill,which favors operational use.展开更多
基金supported by the Key Laboratory of Marine Hydrocarbon Resources and Environmental Geology(MRE201233)Key Laboratory of Surveying and Mapping Technology on Island and ReefState Bureau of Surveying and Mapping(2012B04)
文摘This paper analyzed the existing methods of wave measurement, and described the advantages of GPS applied in measuring the wave. The equations of absolute velocity estimation were discussed, focusing on two methods with Doppler shill. The error sources and their effect on velocity estimation were analyzed. Then, some tests were carried on to simulate dynamic velocity determination using static data Based on the high-frequency carrier-phase derived Doppler observations, the velocity has been estimated to the precision of 1 cm/s or so, even to the mm/s level. And with the receiver generated Doppler measurements, the precision can reach 3 - 15 cm/s.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41105070,40930952 and 41005041)State Key Program of Science and Technology of China(Grant No.2009BAC51B04)Meteorological Special Project of China(Grant No.GYHY 201106016)
文摘Although extended-range forecasting has exceeded the limit of daily predictability of weather,there are still partially predictable characteristics of meteorological fields in such forecasts.A targeted forecast scheme and strategy for extended-range predictable components is proposed.Based on chaotic characteristics of the atmosphere,predictable components and unpredictable random components are separated by using the standpoint of error growth in a numerical model.The predictable components are defined as those with slow error growth at a given range,which are not sensitive to small errors in initial conditions. A numerical model for predictable components(NMPC)is established,by filtering random components with poor predictability.The aim is to maintain predictable components and avoid the influence of rapidly growing forecast errors on small scales. Meanwhile,the analogue-dynamical approach(ADA)is used to correct forecast errors of predictable components,to decrease model error and statistically take into account the influence of random components.The scheme is applied to operational dynamical extended-range forecast(DERF)model of the National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration (NCC/CMA).Prediction results show that the scheme can improve forecast skill of predictable components to some extent, especially in high predictability regions.Forecast skill at zonal wave zero is improved more than for ultra-long waves and synoptic-scale waves.Results show good agreement with predictability of spatial scale.As a result,the scheme can reduce forecast errors and improve forecast skill,which favors operational use.
