As the main body of air traffic control safety,the air traffic controller is an important part of the whole air traffic control system. According to the relevant data of civil aviation over the years,a mapping model b...As the main body of air traffic control safety,the air traffic controller is an important part of the whole air traffic control system. According to the relevant data of civil aviation over the years,a mapping model between flight support sorties and air traffic controller demand is constructed by using the prediction algorithm of support vector regression(SVR) based on grid search and cross-validation. Then the model predicts the demand for air traffic controllers in seven regions. Additionally,according to the employment data of civil aviation universities,the future training scale of air traffic controller is predicted. The forecast results show that the average relative error of the number of controllers predicted by the algorithm is 1.73%,and the prediction accuracy is higher than traditional regression algorithms. Under the influence of the epidemic,the demand for air traffic controllers will decrease in the short term,but with the control of the epidemic,the demand of air traffic controllers will return to the pre-epidemic level and gradually increase. It is expected that the controller increment will be about 816 by 2028. The forecast results of the demand for air traffic controllers provide a theoretical basis for the introduction and training of medium and long-term air traffic controllers,and also provide method guidance and decision support for the establishment of professional reserve and dynamic control mechanism in the air traffic control system.展开更多
This explorative study investigates 1） whether and how quantitative measures of writing can be applied in finding out about scoring raters＇ specific tendency in their scoring of EFL writing; 2） how the knowledge of...This explorative study investigates 1） whether and how quantitative measures of writing can be applied in finding out about scoring raters＇ specific tendency in their scoring of EFL writing; 2） how the knowledge of raters＇ tendency and scoring results would help verify the best way of combining raters＇ scores; and 3） how the prediction of the writing scores of EFL writing obtained by quantitative writing performance measures would match the real scores given by raters. Based on a tentative CAF framework of writing measures, raters＇ performance or tendency in their scoring was observed and certain patterns of similarities as well as differences were found among the raters. The resuks of multiple linear regressions indicate that all raters give prior attention to the aspect of accuracy in their scoring. Differences among raters are also obvious. When it comes to the combination of different raters＇ scores, the study also finds that weighted average is the best of the three ways of combining scores for this group of raters because it has yielded the best predicting scores than the ＂pure average＂. It is even slightly better than the results obtained by facet analysis in terms of some important indices such as R square and Durbin-Watson value. The matching of the predicted scores with the real scores is well over 50 percent. The results of the study are further discussed in relation to the application of wpm and the possible improvement of wpm framework. The methodological, theoretical and practical implications of the study have also been touched upon in the relevant part of the article.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71971114)。
文摘As the main body of air traffic control safety,the air traffic controller is an important part of the whole air traffic control system. According to the relevant data of civil aviation over the years,a mapping model between flight support sorties and air traffic controller demand is constructed by using the prediction algorithm of support vector regression(SVR) based on grid search and cross-validation. Then the model predicts the demand for air traffic controllers in seven regions. Additionally,according to the employment data of civil aviation universities,the future training scale of air traffic controller is predicted. The forecast results show that the average relative error of the number of controllers predicted by the algorithm is 1.73%,and the prediction accuracy is higher than traditional regression algorithms. Under the influence of the epidemic,the demand for air traffic controllers will decrease in the short term,but with the control of the epidemic,the demand of air traffic controllers will return to the pre-epidemic level and gradually increase. It is expected that the controller increment will be about 816 by 2028. The forecast results of the demand for air traffic controllers provide a theoretical basis for the introduction and training of medium and long-term air traffic controllers,and also provide method guidance and decision support for the establishment of professional reserve and dynamic control mechanism in the air traffic control system.
基金funded by China National Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science(No.08XYY007)
文摘This explorative study investigates 1） whether and how quantitative measures of writing can be applied in finding out about scoring raters＇ specific tendency in their scoring of EFL writing; 2） how the knowledge of raters＇ tendency and scoring results would help verify the best way of combining raters＇ scores; and 3） how the prediction of the writing scores of EFL writing obtained by quantitative writing performance measures would match the real scores given by raters. Based on a tentative CAF framework of writing measures, raters＇ performance or tendency in their scoring was observed and certain patterns of similarities as well as differences were found among the raters. The resuks of multiple linear regressions indicate that all raters give prior attention to the aspect of accuracy in their scoring. Differences among raters are also obvious. When it comes to the combination of different raters＇ scores, the study also finds that weighted average is the best of the three ways of combining scores for this group of raters because it has yielded the best predicting scores than the ＂pure average＂. It is even slightly better than the results obtained by facet analysis in terms of some important indices such as R square and Durbin-Watson value. The matching of the predicted scores with the real scores is well over 50 percent. The results of the study are further discussed in relation to the application of wpm and the possible improvement of wpm framework. The methodological, theoretical and practical implications of the study have also been touched upon in the relevant part of the article.
