In order to improve the accuracy of travel demand forecast and considering the distribution of travel behaviors within time dimension, a trip chaining pattern recognition model was established based on activity purpos...In order to improve the accuracy of travel demand forecast and considering the distribution of travel behaviors within time dimension, a trip chaining pattern recognition model was established based on activity purposes by applying three methods： the support vector machine （SVM） model, the radial basis function neural network （RBFNN） model and the multinomial logit （MNL） model. The effect of explanatory factors on trip chaining behaviors and their contribution to model performace were investigated by sensitivity analysis. Results show that the SVM model has a better performance than the RBFNN model and the MNL model due to its higher overall and partial accuracy, indicating its recognition advantage under a smai sample size scenario. It is also proved that the SVM model is capable of estimating the effect of multi-category factors on trip chaining behaviors more accurately. The different contribution of explanatory, factors to trip chaining pattern recognition reflects the importance of refining trip chaining patterns ad exploring factors that are specific to each pattern. It is shown that the SVM technology in travel demand forecast modeling and analysis of explanatory variable effects is practical.展开更多
Performance parameter prediction technology is the core research content of aeroengine health management,and more and more machine learning algorithms have been applied in the field.Regularized extreme learning machin...Performance parameter prediction technology is the core research content of aeroengine health management,and more and more machine learning algorithms have been applied in the field.Regularized extreme learning machine(RELM)is one of them.However,the regularization parameter determination of RELM consumes computational resources,which makes it unsuitable in the field of aeroengine performance parameter prediction with a large amount of data.This paper uses the forward and backward segmentation(FBS)algorithms to improve the RELM performance,and introduces an adaptive step size determination method and an improved solution mechanism to obtain a new machine learning algorithm.While maintaining good generalization,the new algorithm is not sensitive to regularization parameters,which greatly saves computing resources.The experimental results on the public data sets prove the above conclusions.Finally,the new algorithm is applied to the prediction of aero-engine performance parameters,and the excellent prediction performance is achieved.展开更多
The theory of nu-support vector regression (Nu-SVR) is employed in modeling time series variationfor prediction. In order to avoid prediction performance degradation caused by improper parameters, themethod of paralle...The theory of nu-support vector regression (Nu-SVR) is employed in modeling time series variationfor prediction. In order to avoid prediction performance degradation caused by improper parameters, themethod of parallel multidimensional step search (PMSS) is proposed for users to select best parameters intraining support vector machine to get a prediction model. A series of tests are performed to evaluate themodeling mechanism and prediction results indicate that Nu-SVR models can reflect the variation tendencyof time series with low prediction error on both familiar and unfamiliar data. Statistical analysis is alsoemployed to verify the optimization performance of PMSS algorithm and comparative results indicate thattraining error can take the minimum over the interval around planar data point corresponding to selectedparameters. Moreover, the introduction of parallelization can remarkably speed up the optimizing procedure.展开更多
基金The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,the Scientific Innovation Research of College Graduates in Jiangsu Province(No.KYLX_0177)
文摘In order to improve the accuracy of travel demand forecast and considering the distribution of travel behaviors within time dimension, a trip chaining pattern recognition model was established based on activity purposes by applying three methods： the support vector machine （SVM） model, the radial basis function neural network （RBFNN） model and the multinomial logit （MNL） model. The effect of explanatory factors on trip chaining behaviors and their contribution to model performace were investigated by sensitivity analysis. Results show that the SVM model has a better performance than the RBFNN model and the MNL model due to its higher overall and partial accuracy, indicating its recognition advantage under a smai sample size scenario. It is also proved that the SVM model is capable of estimating the effect of multi-category factors on trip chaining behaviors more accurately. The different contribution of explanatory, factors to trip chaining pattern recognition reflects the importance of refining trip chaining patterns ad exploring factors that are specific to each pattern. It is shown that the SVM technology in travel demand forecast modeling and analysis of explanatory variable effects is practical.
文摘Performance parameter prediction technology is the core research content of aeroengine health management,and more and more machine learning algorithms have been applied in the field.Regularized extreme learning machine(RELM)is one of them.However,the regularization parameter determination of RELM consumes computational resources,which makes it unsuitable in the field of aeroengine performance parameter prediction with a large amount of data.This paper uses the forward and backward segmentation(FBS)algorithms to improve the RELM performance,and introduces an adaptive step size determination method and an improved solution mechanism to obtain a new machine learning algorithm.While maintaining good generalization,the new algorithm is not sensitive to regularization parameters,which greatly saves computing resources.The experimental results on the public data sets prove the above conclusions.Finally,the new algorithm is applied to the prediction of aero-engine performance parameters,and the excellent prediction performance is achieved.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 60873235&60473099)the Science-Technology Development Key Project of Jilin Province of China (No. 20080318)the Program of New Century Excellent Talents in University of China (No. NCET-06-0300).
文摘The theory of nu-support vector regression (Nu-SVR) is employed in modeling time series variationfor prediction. In order to avoid prediction performance degradation caused by improper parameters, themethod of parallel multidimensional step search (PMSS) is proposed for users to select best parameters intraining support vector machine to get a prediction model. A series of tests are performed to evaluate themodeling mechanism and prediction results indicate that Nu-SVR models can reflect the variation tendencyof time series with low prediction error on both familiar and unfamiliar data. Statistical analysis is alsoemployed to verify the optimization performance of PMSS algorithm and comparative results indicate thattraining error can take the minimum over the interval around planar data point corresponding to selectedparameters. Moreover, the introduction of parallelization can remarkably speed up the optimizing procedure.
