济灾会计初构

随着人类对大自然的过度开发和地球板块运动的活跃,巨型自然灾害频发。灾害无可避免,在最大限度地提高灾害预测准确度以降低灾难后果的同时,济灾就显得至关重要。但济灾过程中物资管理问题层出不穷,因此本文提出济灾会计一说,试图构建科学、完整济灾管理体系。

APPLICATION OF GEOGRAPHICAL PARAMETER DATABASE TO ESTABLISHMENT OF UNIT POPULATION DATABASE

Now GIS is turning into a good tool in handling geographical, economical, and population data, so we can obtain more and more information from these data. On the other hand, in some cases, for a calamity, such as hurricane, earthquake, flood, drought etc., or a decision-making, such as setting up a broadcasting transmitter, building a chemical plant etc., we have to evaluate the total population in the region influenced by a calamity or a project. In this paper, a method is put forward to evaluate the population in such special region. Through exploring the correlation of geographical parameters and the distribution of people in the same region by means of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, unit population database (1km× 1km) is established. In this way, estimating the number of people in a special region is capable by adding up the population in every grid involved in this region boundary. The geographical parameters are obtained from topographic database and DEM database on the scale of 1: 250 000. The fundamental geographical parameter database covering county administrative boundaries and 1km × 1km grid is set up and the population database at county level is set up as well. Both geographical parameter database and unit population database are able to oiler sufficient conditions for quantitative analysis. They will have important role in the research fields of data mining (DM), Decision-making Support Systems (DSS), and regional sustainable development.

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE FLOODING AND DROUGHT CALAMITY DURING PAST 1500 YEARSIN THE HAI'AN REGION, JIANGSU PROVINCE

Collection and arrangement of the historical records of climatic changes andenvironment evolution, especially in the aspect of calamities, are made on the history documents ofpast 1500 years about Hai'an region, Jiangsu Province. There existed two obvious flooding-droughtfrequently-occurring periods: one was from 1550 AD to 1850 AD and another was 1000 AD to 1200 AD.The period of 1550 AD to 1850 AD is interrupted by two relatively arid and cold climatic periods:one was from 1630 AD to 1700 AD and another was 1750 AD to 1820 AD. The main characteristic of thecalamity periods is that they occurred by turns, and sometimes, both drought and flooding occurredin the same year. The instability of the climatic changes in the Little Ice Age may be the mainreason of the frequently-occurring flooding and drought in Hai'an region. Research results also showthat the frequently-occurring periods of flooding and drought is in close relationship with thesolar activity, and therefore, occurrence of the flooding and drought may be in relation with theintensity of the solar activity. This hypothesis may need further study in the future.

Spatio-temporal changes of exposure and vulnerability to floods in China

A socio-economic data set on China＇s historical flood losses for the period 1984--2012 was compiled to analyze the exposed population, economy, and crop area as well as the vulnerabilities of the population and economy to floods. The results revealed that the exposed population was approximately 126 persons km-2 per year when taking China as a whole; in terms of the economy, potential losses due to floods were estimated to be approximately 1.49 million C/W4 km 2 and the crop area exposed to floods covered 153 million hm2 per year. China＇s total exposure to floods significantly increased over the analysis period. The areas that showed the higher exposure were mainly located along the east coast. The population＇s vulnerability to floods showed a significantly increasing trend, however, the economic vulnerability showed a decreasing trend. The populations and economies that were most vulnerable to floods were in Hunan, Anhui, Chongqing, Jiangxi, and Hubei provinces. The municipalities of Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin showed the lowest vulnerabilities to floods.

A study of cooperation processes in multi-agent systems of storm surge disaster

Collaborative governance mechanism is a public management process that emphasizes the establishment of trust relationship between various subjects within the government and between multiple subjects such as the government and non-government based on the needs of the interest community,so as to achieve the advantages of collaborative governance.It is an important measure to improve the national storm surge disaster management system and realize the modernization of disaster management capacity.It is also the trend of the government to improve public management.Based on the results of relevant national bulletins,the storm surge disaster is selected which is the most characteristic of Marine disasters in the scope of marine public management.We select Zhejiang Province as the research area,which is heavily affected by storm surge disaster.Based on the case subjects of previous major storm surge disasters in Zhejiang Province,we analyze the specific measures taken by relevant subjects to deal with storm surge disasters.This paper presents the current situation of the participants and the cooperation problems among the participants,finds out the causes of the problems,studies and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for the coordination management among the participants,provides certain ideas for further developing the disaster prevention and reduction and emergency management of storm surge disasters in coastal areas in order to improve the understanding of multiple subjects on the emergency management of storm surge disasters.

Economic Appraisal of Damages Caused by Forest Fires Adopting a New Prevention and Suppression System： The Case of Rhodes Island, Greece

Rhodes is one of the most forested islands of Greece, in the Prefecture of Dodecanese, in southeast of Aegean Sea. The island in recent times has been struck by big and devastating fires. After 1993, the local Forest Service and the local political authority have adopted a new prevention and suppression system relied on the fast fire detection and suppression at its initial stages. By the present research, comparing the results of 1993-2006 （a time span when the above method was applied） with the results of the immediately precedent equal time of 1978-1992, was made certain that the firefighting system applied after 1993 had very good results irrespective from the primary agency in charge of extinguishing the forest fires. Among others, it was made clear that, during the period that this method was applied, a much less area was burnt per year than the period before the application in spite of the fact that in the same period （1993-2006） there has been a significant increase of forest fires. It is also estimated that the economic damage occurred in the first period （1978-1992） on average was 12.4 times per year higher compared to the second period （1993-2006）.

Assessing Drought Vulnerability of Bulgarian Agriculture through Model Simulations

This study assesses vulnerability of agriculture to drought, using WINISAREG model and seasonal SPI2-index for eight climate regions （1951-2004）. Results relative to Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW （total available water） net irrigation requirements NIRs range from 0 to 380 mm. In soils of small TAW, NIRs reach 440 mm in the very dry year. NIRs in Sofia/Silistra are about 100 mm smaller than in Plovdiv while in Sandanski they are 30-110 mm larger. Rainfed maize is associated with great yield variability （29% 〈 Cv 〈 72%）. Considering an economical RYD （relative yield decrease） threshold, 32% of years are risky when TA Wis large in Plovdiv that is double than in Sofia and half than in Sandanski. In North Bulgaria the risky years are 10% in Pleven/Silistra that is half than in Lom. In Plovdiv region reliable relationships （R2 〉 91%） were found relating the SPI2 ＂July-Aug.＂ with simulated RYD of rainfed maize while remaining relationships were less accurate （73% 〈 R2 〈 86%）. Economical losses are produced when High Peak Season SPI2 〈 ＋ 0.20 in Sandanski, SPI2 〈 - 0.50 in Plovdiv and SPI2 〈 - 0.90 in Sofia. In North Bulgaria the SPI2 threshold ranges from - 0.75 to - 1.50. Derived reliable relationships and SPl-thresholds are used for drought vulnerability mapping.

China Says Quake Rebuilding Will Buoy State-Owned Enterprises

Reconstruction of earthquake-ravaged regions will bring huge business opportunities for major state-owned companies （SOCs）, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission （SASAC） of the State Council （cabinet） said in a statement on its website on May 28.

Disaster Loss Evaluation and Characteristics of the Seismic Hazard of the Nilka-Gongliu Earthquake with M_S6. 0

The epicenter intensity of Nilka-Gongliu earthquake with MS6. 0 was Ⅶ degrees; no fatalities but many residential buildings and public facilities were moderately damaged during the earthquake. Traffic and water conservation facilities were damaged to a certain extent but after emergency repair,production and life in the disaster area were not influenced. According to a sample survey of the earthquake filed,this earthquake caused direct economic loss of approximately 678. 46 million yuan( RMB),and the reconstruction funds required will be about 1. 20349 billion yuan( RMB).

Assessment of Economic Damage Risks from Typhoon Disasters in Guangdong, China

Guangdong is a developed province in China, but suffers from frequent typhoon disasters which cause great economic loss. Quantitative regional risk assessment of typhoon disasters is important for disaster prevention and mitigation. According to direct economic loss and typhoon intensity information, we established a typhoon disaster loss rate curve using data from 1954 to 2008. Based on GIS spatial module, the economic vulnerabilities of different intensity typhoons were calculated for 98 counties in Guangdong Province. Different intensity typhoon landing frequencies in Guangdong were also calculated, and used to indicate typhoon disaster probability. A risk assessment model was established to assess economic loss risk under different intensity typhoons in Guangdong. The results show that economic loss risk caused by typhoon is more than 10 thousand million CNY; according to typhoon intensity grade, economic risk is up to 10.467, 14.429, 7.753 and 13.591 thousand million CNY for slight, light, medium and severe typhoons, respectively. The Pearl River Delta is the highest risk region, especially Guangzhou, Dongguan, Shenzhen, Zhongshan and Zhuhai. Risk value decreases from Pearl River coastal outfall to the inland in a radial pattern. Inland areas far from coastal counties have lower risk, and the risk value is less than 50 million CNY. When typhoon intensity increases from slight to medium, the risk in western is higher than in eastern parts, but when typhoons become to severe, the risk value in eastern Guangdong part is higher than in the west.

Operationalizing Iterative Risk Management under Limited Information:Fiscal and Economic Risks Due to Natural Disasters in Cambodia

Iterative risk management and risk-sensitive public investment planning are increasingly seen as essential elements of natural disaster resilience. This article assesses the disaster risk facing the hazard-prone Southeast Asian country of Cambodia and discusses its fiscal preparedness and need for proactive disaster risk management.The study provides a bottom-up assessment of flood and cyclone risks to public and private buildings including educational structures, health facilities, and housing and estimates the total direct economic damage to range from approximately USD 304 million for a 5-year return period event to USD 2.26 billion for a 1000-year return period event. These estimates were further analyzed using the fiscal risk due to disasters, which indicates that Cambodia will likely face a resource gap whenever a hazard as large as that of a 28-year return period event strikes. Given the frequent occurrence of disasters and rapid accumulation of capital assets taking place, proactive risk reduction is highly advisable. But interviews with national policymakers also revealed that there are a number of barriers to effective risk reduction and management in Cambodia. The general lack of awareness regarding risk-based concepts and the limited availability of local risk information necessitate a continued and sustained effort to build iterative risk management in Cambodia.