Using numerical model simulations, global surface temperature is projected to increase by l^C to 4~C during the 21 st century, primarily as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. In the present stu...Using numerical model simulations, global surface temperature is projected to increase by l^C to 4~C during the 21 st century, primarily as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. In the present study, a predictive technique incorporating driving forces into an observation time series was used to project the global mean surface temperature under four representative sce- narios of future emissions over the 21st century.展开更多
AIM： To construct formulae for predicting the likelihood of ribavirin-induced anemia in pegylated interferon plus ribavirin for chronic hepatitis C. METHODS： Five hundred and sixty-one Japanese patients with hepatit...AIM： To construct formulae for predicting the likelihood of ribavirin-induced anemia in pegylated interferon plus ribavirin for chronic hepatitis C. METHODS： Five hundred and sixty-one Japanese patients with hepatitis C virus genotype lb who had received combination treatment were enrolled and as- signed randomly to the derivation and confirmatory groups. Single nucleotide polymorphisms at or nearby ITPA were genotyped by real-time detection poly- merase chain reaction. Factors influencing significant anemia （hemoglobin concentration 〈 10.0 g/dL at week 4 of treatment） and significant hemoglobin decline （declining concentrations 〉 3.0 g/dL at week 4） were analyzed using multiple regression analyses. Prediction formulae were constructed by significantly independent factors. RESULTS： Multivariate analysis for the derivation group identified four independent factors associated with significant hemoglobin decline： hemoglobin decline at week 2 [P = 3.29× 10^4, odds ratio （OR） = 7.54 （g/dL）], estimated glomerular filtration rate [P = 2.16× 10^4, OR = 0.962 （ml/min/1.73 m2）], rs1127354 （P = 5.75 × 10^4, OR = 10.94） and baseline hemoglobin [P = 7.86 × 10^4, OR = 1.50 （g/alL）]. Using the model constructed by these factors, positive and negative predictive values and predictive accuracy were 79.8%, 88.8% and 86.2%, respectively. For the confirmatory group, they were 83.3%, 91.0% and 88.3%. These factors were closely correlated with significant anemia. However, the model could not be constructed, because no patients with rs1127354 minor genotype CA/AA had significant anemia. CONCLUSION： Reliable formulae for predicting the likelihood of ribavirin-induced anemia were constructed. Such modeling may be useful in developing individual tailoring and optimization of ribavirin dosage.展开更多
Predicting the lifetime of polymeric insulators is one of the most important research topics in studying the life cycle of high voltage insulators in the power transmission and distribution networks. HTV （high temper...Predicting the lifetime of polymeric insulators is one of the most important research topics in studying the life cycle of high voltage insulators in the power transmission and distribution networks. HTV （high temperature vulcanized） silicone rubber is a high performance dielectric material used within electrical power equipment, in particular transmission and distribution insulators. In this paper, we proposed a new approach using the Newton＇s method and Lagrange method to predict the aging of HTV silicone rubber that are subjected to multiple stress conditions. Concentration of chemical elements such as carbon, oxygen, silicon and aluminum were obtained and evaluated using a SEM （scanning electron microscope） with EDS （energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy）. Curve fitting using the Newton＇s and Lagrange interpolation methods yield useful linear interpolation equations that describe the aging characteristic of the specimens under study. This approach can be applied to predict the change in chemical concentration of polymeric insulators over the life cycle with good accuracy.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.40890052 and 41275087)
文摘Using numerical model simulations, global surface temperature is projected to increase by l^C to 4~C during the 21 st century, primarily as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. In the present study, a predictive technique incorporating driving forces into an observation time series was used to project the global mean surface temperature under four representative sce- narios of future emissions over the 21st century.
基金Supported by Clinical Research Funds from Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology,Katsushika Medical Center,The Jikei University School of Medicine
文摘AIM： To construct formulae for predicting the likelihood of ribavirin-induced anemia in pegylated interferon plus ribavirin for chronic hepatitis C. METHODS： Five hundred and sixty-one Japanese patients with hepatitis C virus genotype lb who had received combination treatment were enrolled and as- signed randomly to the derivation and confirmatory groups. Single nucleotide polymorphisms at or nearby ITPA were genotyped by real-time detection poly- merase chain reaction. Factors influencing significant anemia （hemoglobin concentration 〈 10.0 g/dL at week 4 of treatment） and significant hemoglobin decline （declining concentrations 〉 3.0 g/dL at week 4） were analyzed using multiple regression analyses. Prediction formulae were constructed by significantly independent factors. RESULTS： Multivariate analysis for the derivation group identified four independent factors associated with significant hemoglobin decline： hemoglobin decline at week 2 [P = 3.29× 10^4, odds ratio （OR） = 7.54 （g/dL）], estimated glomerular filtration rate [P = 2.16× 10^4, OR = 0.962 （ml/min/1.73 m2）], rs1127354 （P = 5.75 × 10^4, OR = 10.94） and baseline hemoglobin [P = 7.86 × 10^4, OR = 1.50 （g/alL）]. Using the model constructed by these factors, positive and negative predictive values and predictive accuracy were 79.8%, 88.8% and 86.2%, respectively. For the confirmatory group, they were 83.3%, 91.0% and 88.3%. These factors were closely correlated with significant anemia. However, the model could not be constructed, because no patients with rs1127354 minor genotype CA/AA had significant anemia. CONCLUSION： Reliable formulae for predicting the likelihood of ribavirin-induced anemia were constructed. Such modeling may be useful in developing individual tailoring and optimization of ribavirin dosage.
文摘Predicting the lifetime of polymeric insulators is one of the most important research topics in studying the life cycle of high voltage insulators in the power transmission and distribution networks. HTV （high temperature vulcanized） silicone rubber is a high performance dielectric material used within electrical power equipment, in particular transmission and distribution insulators. In this paper, we proposed a new approach using the Newton＇s method and Lagrange method to predict the aging of HTV silicone rubber that are subjected to multiple stress conditions. Concentration of chemical elements such as carbon, oxygen, silicon and aluminum were obtained and evaluated using a SEM （scanning electron microscope） with EDS （energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy）. Curve fitting using the Newton＇s and Lagrange interpolation methods yield useful linear interpolation equations that describe the aging characteristic of the specimens under study. This approach can be applied to predict the change in chemical concentration of polymeric insulators over the life cycle with good accuracy.
