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NCEP/NOAA全球预报产品在江苏近岸及长江口外的精度评估
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作者 袁祖晴 高寒旭 +6 位作者 胡翌哲 燕俊羽 张国胜 王晓春 徐淑雯 陈智强 陈旻豪 《海洋预报》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第4期32-42,共11页
利用2021年1—7月江苏近岸和长江口外13个测风站、3个波浪浮标的观测数据,与美国国家环境预报中心/美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NCEP/NOAA)全球预报系统的风场、波浪预报数据进行对比。结果表明:与上一代预报产品相比,目前全球业务预报产... 利用2021年1—7月江苏近岸和长江口外13个测风站、3个波浪浮标的观测数据,与美国国家环境预报中心/美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NCEP/NOAA)全球预报系统的风场、波浪预报数据进行对比。结果表明:与上一代预报产品相比,目前全球业务预报产品在风场预报方面的准确度明显提高,江苏近岸地区的风速预报误差明显小于长江口外地区,24 h风速和风向预报的均方根误差分别为2 m/s和45°。对大风天、大浪天环境下全球预报产品精度的评估表明:大风天风速预报精度在长江口外降低,在江苏近岸无明显变化,风向预报精度在长江口外无明显变化,在江苏近岸提高;大浪天波高、浪向的预报精度分别降低、提高。在台风极端天气条件下,全球预报产品对长江口的风场仍有一定的预报能力,但预报的最大风速的出现时间滞后6~9 h,且无法预报出风速剧烈变化的情况。尝试基于长短期记忆网络方法利用NCEP/NOAA预报及观测改进业务预报,可以改善短期单站预报水平。 展开更多
关键词 江苏近岸及长江口外 预报评估 有效波高 长短期记忆网络 海上风电业
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Offshore Wind-Parks and Northern Europe's Mild Winters: Contribution from Ships, Fishery, et cetera?
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作者 Arnd BERNAERTS 《Journal of Shipping and Ocean Engineering》 2016年第1期46-56,共11页
The marine environment of North Sea and Baltic is one of the most heavily strained by numerous human activities. Simultaneously water and air temperatures increase more than elsewhere in Europe and globally, which can... The marine environment of North Sea and Baltic is one of the most heavily strained by numerous human activities. Simultaneously water and air temperatures increase more than elsewhere in Europe and globally, which cannot be explained with "global warming". The climatic change issue would be better understood if this extraordinary regional warming is sufficiently explained. The regional features are unique for in-depth studies due to different summer-winter conditions, shallowness of the seas, geographical structure, and main pathway for maritime weather patterns moving eastwards. The impact of sea activities on the seasonal sea water profile structure is contributing to stronger regional warming, change in growing season, and less severe sea ice conditions. The impact of the man, whether small or large, should be understood very soon and very thoroughly. 展开更多
关键词 Human maritime activities sea temperature increase North Sea and Baltic warming change in seasonality sea icedecrease.
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