海南岛后汛期旱涝急转及其海气异常特征分析

利用1966—2017年海南岛18个气象站逐月降水量、NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料及NOAA海表温度资料,定义了后汛期旱涝急转指数(LDFAI),据此分析了海南岛后汛期旱涝急转的气候特征及其海气异常特征。结果表明:(1)近52 a海南岛后汛期旱涝急转现象年际变化大,并呈现一定的年代际特征,存在14 a的强显著周期。空间上,保亭、儋州和白沙发生频率高,东南部沿海次之,乐东最少;北部部分地区和中部强度最强、西南部最弱。(2)旱转涝年,旱期西太平洋副热带高压(副高)异常偏东、强度偏弱,海南处于反气旋流场中心区,且其上空为下沉运动区和整层水汽辐散区;涝期东亚大槽偏强,冷空气和副高南侧偏东气流在海南附近交汇,伴随低层辐合上升运动和整层水汽输送汇合,海南降水形势有利。涝转旱年情况相反。(3)后汛期LDFAI与前期和同期热带中太平洋海温存在显著的负相关性。

冬季北太平洋海气环流年代际异常的统计动力诊断

本文对冬季北太平洋大气和大洋环流做了联合复经验正交函数(CEOF)分解和小波分析,并分别讨论了第一、二模态的年代际变化及其与海表温度异常(SSTA)年代际变化(PDO、NPGO模态)的关系,得到以下主要结论:第一、二模态对时间系数的分析显示,其与PDO、NPGO指数的相关性较高,且小波分析表明其分别具有明显的准22、12年的年代际变化周期,这与PDO、NPGO模态的周期相同;第一、二模态时间系数对北太平洋SSTA的回归分析表明,其回归系数场的空间分布分别与PDO、NPGO的十分接近。第一、二模态空间场中大气环流异常分别类似于海平面气压异常(SLPA)的AL、NPO模态,可分称其为AL、NPO的风场模;而大洋环流异常则分别相应于SSTA的PDO、NPGO模态,可称其为PDO、NPGO的流场模。由第一、二模态近表层流场异常得到的垂直运动空间分布分别与PDO、NPGO的空间结构相似,说明海洋上层海盆尺度大洋环流引起的垂直运动所导致的海温动力变化是形成PDO、NPGO的重要原因,而大洋环流异常扮演着中介角色。

海南岛霾高发月异常年的海气特征

利用海南岛18个国家地面气象站1981—2014年的气象观测资料和再分析资料,分析了海南岛霾的时空分布特征和霾高发月异常年的大气环流和海洋表面温度特征,为霾的月气候预测提供依据.结果表明:海南岛霾日多发生于当年10月至翌年2月,当年12月最多.各地霾高发月的霾日数以北部内陆和中部山区较多,东南部沿海地区几乎没有霾出现.霾高发月异常年的海气特征具有一定的相似性.大部分月份(10月除外)霾偏多(少)年一般呈现出类似拉尼娜(厄尔尼诺)状态年的海温分布型,使850 hPa风场上海南岛受到异常的偏北(南)气流控制,有利于(不利于)我国大陆地区污染物向海南岛的输送,并使降水减少(增多)削弱(增强)其对污染物的清除作用;霾偏多年500 hPa位势高度场上海南岛为正距平,不利于污染物的垂直扩散,有利于霾日数偏多.但不同月份的霾偏多、偏少年这些异常特征的配置有所不同.

长江中下游入梅指数及早晚梅年的海气背景特征

利用1957-2001年全国160站逐月降水资料和116站入梅日期资料，定义了一个长江中下游入梅指数，以定量描述长江中下游地区平均入梅的早晚，再结合ERA-40高分辨率再分析资料和ERSST海温资料，利用相关分析和合成分析，分别研究了早、晚梅年同期（6～7月份）和前期（前一年12月份至当年5月份）的大尺度大气环流及海温的异常特征。结果表明：早梅年同期，200hPa南亚高压偏北，印度北部、孟加拉湾-印度尼西亚-副热带太平洋地区上空的对流偏强，西太平洋副热带高压和赤道辐合带位置偏北，东亚副热带夏季风偏强，晚梅年则相反。前期1月份北太平洋涛动及4月份西太平洋暖池附近的对流与当年入梅早晚存在显著的相关关系：早梅年，1月份北太平洋涛动偏弱，4月份西太平洋暖池附近的对流活跃；晚梅年，1月份北太平洋涛动偏强，4月份西太平洋暖池附近的对流偏弱。此外，从前期海温场来看，早梅年，1～4月份北大西洋中高纬地区海温偏低，低纬地区海温偏高，呈南北偶极子分布状态，2月份西太平洋暖池附近海域及北半球冬、春季环澳大利亚海域海温明显偏高，晚梅年情况正好相反。以上这些前期信号为长江中下游地区入梅的短期气候预测提供了参考依据。

内蒙古地区夏季旱涝急转环流异常特征及其预测

利用内蒙古地区116个气象观测站逐月降水量、NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料、NOAA海表温度资料以及国家气象业务内网提供的130项气候监测指数,计算内蒙古夏季旱涝急转指数并分区,分析各分区“旱转涝”和“涝转旱”年的海气异常特征,探讨各气候区夏季旱涝急转指数与前期环流和海温指数的关系,并构建预测模型。结果表明:(1)近39 a来,内蒙古各气候区从春末夏初到盛夏由旱转涝的特征趋于减弱,而由涝转旱的特征趋于增强。(2)内蒙古西部地区夏季旱转涝年和涝转旱年,东亚大槽和西太平洋副热带高压的位置、强度以及水汽条件和垂直运动均存在显著差异;内蒙古东北部地区夏季旱转涝年和涝转旱年,东北冷涡强度、水汽条件和垂直运动存在显著差异。(3)内蒙古地区夏季旱涝急转指数与前期印度洋和热带西太平洋暖池区、黑潮区及北太平洋东北部海温存在显著负相关关系。(4)基于前期环流及海温指数构建的内蒙古夏季旱涝急转指数预测模型具有一定的预测能力,可为内蒙古地区夏季旱涝急转预测提供一定参考。

海南岛冬季雾日异常气候背景分析

利用1980—2020年海南岛18个国家气象观测站的逐日地面观测数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、NOAA海温及国家气候中心气候系统监测指数集,分析了海南岛冬季雾日的气候特征及其异常年海气背景特征.结果表明:(1)海南岛冬季雾日高值区集中在北部和中部内陆,低值区分布在东南部、西南部的沿海;近40年来冬季雾日呈显著下降趋势,2000年后处在偏少的年代际背景下,冬季日平均最低气温偏高和平均风速增大是造成2000年后冬季雾日偏少的直接原因;(2)冬季雾日偏多年,西太副高年际尺度上偏大偏强偏西;南方涛动处于负位相,我国华南地区海平面气压偏高;高层海南岛及南海区域为显著的辐合运动,对应有下沉运动;低层及近地层海南岛处在异常冷高压的西北侧,受西北侧异常西南暖湿气流影响,风速较小,相对湿度略大,空气扩散条件差,有利于雾的生成和维持,偏少年的情况则相反;(3)冬季雾日与海温异常变化有着密切的关系,其中秋冬季ENSO状态、前期南海至西太暖池以及我国东部海域海温对冬季大雾天气的发生和维持具有重要的指示意义,类ENSO海温分布型、西太暖池和我国东部海域海温对冬季雾日的预兆信号分别为超前1个季、3个季和1个季.

冬季北太平洋大气低频环流的年际和年代际变化特征及其与大气环流和海温异常的联系

利用1979—2015年ECMWF逐日再分析资料,通过EOF分解和回归分析研究了冬季北太平洋大气低频环流的年际和年代际变化特征及其与海表面温度异常(SSTA)和大气环流异常之间的联系。研究结果表明:冬季中纬度北太平洋地区850 h Pa低频尺度环流存在3个明显的变化模态:第一模态为海盆尺度的单极型异常气旋(反气旋)式环流,同期太平洋SSTA呈现El Ni1o(La Ni1a)以及PDO暖位相(冷位相)空间分布,阿留申低压强度增强(减弱),对流层中高层是正位相(负位相)的PNA型遥相关,北太平洋天气尺度风暴轴中东部南压(北抬);第二模态为在白令海峡和副热带地区呈气旋式与反气旋式环流南北向偶极型变化,同时中纬度北太平洋SSTA呈现NPGO(North Pacific Gyre Oscillation)正位相(负位相)的空间分布,黑潮区域SSTA偏暖(偏冷),北太平洋SSTA经向梯度加大(减小),对流层中高层为负位相(正位相)的WP型遥相关,北太平洋天气尺度风暴轴整体偏北(偏南),强度增强(减弱);第三模态为北太平洋中西部和北美西岸呈气旋式与反气旋式环流东西向偶极型异常,黑潮区域SSTA偏冷(偏暖)而北太平洋东部SSTA偏暖(偏冷),SSTA纬向梯度加大(减弱),同时赤道东太平洋出现类似La Ni1a(El Ni1o)的SSTA分布,北太平洋天气尺度风暴轴中东部明显减弱(加强)而西部略有加强(减弱)。

长江流域夏季不同强度降水日数的时空变化特征

利用长江流域56个站点1957—2009年夏季逐日降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及Hadley海表温度资料,分析了长江流域夏季不同强度降水日数的时空变化及其相关的海气异常型。结果表明:(1)近53 a来,长江流域夏季大到暴雨日数占总降水日数的比率呈明显增加趋势,而中小雨日数占总降水日数的比率呈明显减少趋势。(2)长江流域夏季不同强度降水日数的变化及其相应的海气异常型表现为明显不同的特征。当前期春季海温距平场表现为典型的东部型El Nino分布形态,500 h Pa位势高度场呈现出"+-+"的经向PJ波列,西北太平洋副热带高压偏强,位置偏南偏西,中高纬地区乌拉尔山和鄂霍次克海地区出现双阻塞形势,南半球澳大利亚高压异常偏强,越赤道气流偏强,在30°N附近200 h Pa纬向西风急流异常偏强,850 h Pa风场在东亚上空经向方向上呈现出明显的反气旋—气旋—反气旋系统相间分布的特征时,有利于长江流域夏季大到暴雨降水日数偏多。

Perturbed Solving Method for Interdecadal Sea-air Oscillator Model

A coupled system of the interdecadal sea-air oscillator model is studied. The E1 Nifio-southem oscillation （ENSO） atmospheric physics oscillation is an abnormal phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. The oscillator model is involved with the variations of both the eastern and western Pacific anomaly pat- terns. This paper proposes an ENSO atmospheric physics model using a method of the perturbation theory. The aim is to create an asymptotic solving method for the ENSO model. Employing the perturbed method, the asymptotic solution of corresponding problem is obtained, and the asymptotic behaviour of the solution is studied. Thus we can obtain the prognoses of the sea surface temperature anomaly and related physical quantities.

Characteristics of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Their Influences on the Onset of South China Sea Summer Monsoon

The characteristics of sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） in the tropical oceans and their influences on the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） have been studied.The anomaly of SST in tropical Pacific Ocean exerts persistence impact for one to three months on atmospheric circulations.If the warm pool becomes anomalously warmer during an earlier period from February to April,the SCSSM breaks out earlier,and vice versa.Singular value decomposition （SVD） and composite analysis have shown that,in La Ni（n）a pattern,the convection over Western Pacific will occur earlier and be stronger than normal,which favors the convergence at a lower layer over Western Pacific,as well as the strengthening of upwelling branch of Walker circulation,leading to an earlier burst of westerly in the southern South China Sea.Moreover,the convection in Sumatra appears earlier than normal and favors the westerly evolution in eastern Indian Ocean,resulting in the splitting of the subtropical high belt and an early onset of SCSSM.However,the atmospheric circulation anomaly is reversed in El Ni（n）o pattern.

Assessing the Seasonal Predictability of Summer Precipitation over the Huaihe River Basin with Multiple APCC Models

Seasonal rainfall predictability over the Huaihe River basin is evaluated in this paper on the basis of 23-year(1981-2003) retrospective forecasts by 10 climate models from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC) Climate Center(APCC) multi-model ensemble(MME) prediction system.It is found that the summer rainfall variance in this basin is largely internal,which leads to lower rainfall predictability for most individual climate models.By dividing the 10 models into three categories according to their sea surface temperature(SST) boundary conditions including observed,predicted,and persistent SSTs,the MME deterministic predictive skill of summer rainfall over Huaihe River basin is investigated.It is shown that the MME is effective for increasing the current seasonal forecast skill.Further analysis shows that the MME averaged over predicted SST models has the highest rainfall prediction skill,which is closely related to model's capability in reproducing the observed dominant modes of the summer rainfall anomalies in Huaihe River basin.This result can be further ascribed to the fact that the predicted SST MME is the most effective model ensemble for capturing the relationship between the summer rainfall anomalies over Huaihe River basin and the SST anomalies(SSTAs) in equatorial oceans.

Potential Connection between the Australian Summer Monsoon Circulation and Summer Precipitation over Central China

This study investigated the connection between the Australian summer monsoon(ASM) and summer precipitation over central China. It was found that,following a weaker-than-normal ASM, the East Asian summer monsoon and western North Pacific subtropical high tend to be stronger, yielding anomalous northward moisture to be transported from the western Pacific to central China. Besides, anomalous upwelling motion emerges over 30–37.5°N, along 110°E. Consequently,significant positive summer precipitation anomalies are located over central China. Further analysis indicated that the boreal winter sea surface temperature(SST) in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea shows positive anomalies in association with a weaker-than-normal ASM. The Indian Ocean warming in boreal winter could persist into the following summer because of its own long memory, emanating a baroclinic Kelvin wave into the Pacific that triggers suppressed convection and an anomalous anticyclone. Besides, the abnormal SST signal in the South China Sea develops eastward with time because of local air-sea interaction, causing summer SST warming in the western Pacific. The SST warming can further affect East Asian atmospheric circulation and precipitation through its impact on convection.

The South China Sea throughflow: linkage with local monsoon system and impact on upper thermal structure of the ocean

The tendency of South China Sea throughflow (SCSTF) variation associated with the local monsoon system, and its impact on upper-layer thermal structure, are studied using the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) dataset, combined with Ishii reanalysis data. Luzon Strait Transport (LST) is measured and used as an index for studying the SCSTF variation. Results show that LST had an increasing tendency over the last 50 years, mainly in summer and fall. The increasing tendency was 0.017 1 Sv/a in summer and 0.027 4 Sv/a in fall, as estimated by SODA, and 0.018 0Sv/a in summer and 0.018 9 Sv/a in fall, as estimated by "Island Rule" theory. LST increased by 0.53Sv in JJA (June-July-August) and 0.98Sv in SON (September-October-November) after climate shift, as inferred by SODA data. The average LST anomaly in JJA and SON is strongly related to the local monsoon system, especially to variability of the meridional wind stress anomaly after application of a 3-year running mean, with correlation coefficients 0.57 and 0.51, respectively. In addition to the basin-scale wind forcing, the local northeasterly wind stress anomaly in the SCS can push Pacific water entering the SCS more readily in JJA and SON after climate shift, and an SCSTF-associated cooling effect may favor subsurface cooling more frequently after climate shift.

AVO Character Research of Natural Gas Hydrates in the East China Sea

Natural gas hydrates are considered as strategic resources with commercial potential in the 21st century. Obvious BSR characteristics will be shown on seismic profiles, if there exist natural gas hydrates. The AVO method is one of the methods which can be used to identify and forecast lithologic characteristics and fluid properties by using the relationship between Amplitude and Offset. AVO anomaly is one of the significant signs to check out whether or not there is free gas below the BSR, so it can be used to detect natural gas hydrates from the seismic profile. Considering the geological and geophysical characteristics of the Okinawa Trough and making use of the techniques mentioned above, we can conclude that the conditions there are favorable for the formation and concentration of natural gas hydrates. By analyzing the data collected from the study area, one can discover many different anomalous phenomena on the seismic profile which are related to the existence of natural gas hydrates. Preliminary estimation of the natural gas hydrates in the Okinawa Trough shows that the trough is rich in natural gas hydrates and may become a potential important resources exploration area.

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the South China Sea during mature phase of ENSO

Based on the 18-year （1993-2010） National Centers for Environmental Prediction optimum interpolation sea surface temperature （SST） and simple ocean data assimilation datasets, this study investigated the patterns of the SST anomalies （SSTAs） that occurred in the South China Sea （SCS） during the mature phase of the E1 Nifio/Southem Oscillation. The most dominant characteristic was that of the out- of-phase variation between southwestern and northeastern parts of the SCS, which was influenced primarily by the net surface heat flux and by horizontal thermal advection. The negative SSTA in the northeastern SCS was caused mainly by the loss of heat to the atmosphere and because of the cold-water advection from the western Pacific through the Luzon Strait during E1 Nifio episodes. Conversely, it was found that the anomalous large-scale atmospheric circulation and weakened western boundary current during E1 Nifio episodes led to the development of the positive SSTA in the southwestern SCS.

VARIATION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITIES

Using the daily average of the NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis data from 1979 to 2005 and the characteristics of monsoon troughs in the western North Pacific,we established an intensity index and a location index to describe the activity of the monsoon troughs in three different regions and their impacts on tropical cyclones generated therein(MTTCs).The behavior of the monsoon troughs was analyzed.The following conclusions are obtained:(1)The established monsoon trough intensity index has a positive correlation to the location index,indicating that stronger monsoon trough intensity corresponds to more northward location.(2)Monsoon trough intensity exhibits significant interannual variation,with obvious periods of 4–5 years prior to 1994 and 2–3 years afterwards.(3)The affecting factors on monsoon trough intensity are different with areas.The preceding SST anomaly results in anomalous atmospheric circulation, leading to the anomaly of monsoon trough intensity in different areas.(4)The frequency of cyclogenesis and location anomalies of the MTTC are closely related to the intensity and location of the monsoon trough. Most of the anomalously less MTTC years coincide with the years with a weak general monsoon trough and weak regional monsoon troughs.The anomalously more MTTC years are associated with both a strong general monsoon trough and a weak general monsoon trough combined with a strong one over the South China Sea,though with a larger probability for the latter.(5)The interseasonal variation of the intensity of monsoon troughs provides favorable conditions for TC generation and development.The monsoon trough is in the active periods of both quasi-biweekly 10 to 20 day and 30 to 60 day oscillations,which is favorable for MTTC occurrence.

INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF ATMOSPHERIC HEAT SOURCES AND MOISTURE SINKS OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND THEIR RELATIONS TO THE SST ANOMALIES

The interannual variations of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks over the Equatorial Pacific and their relations with the SST anomalies are studied using ECMWF reanalysis data from 1979 to 1993. It is found by singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis that the region in the tropical Pacific with high positive correlation between the vertically integrated heat source <Q1> anomaly and the SST anomaly, and between the vertically integrated moisture sink <Q2> anomaly and the SST anomaly, is mainly located in a long and narrow belt to the east of 170 °E between 5 °S and 5 °N. The analysis of the vertical structure of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks shows that the interannual variations of Q1, Q2 and SST in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are strongly and positively correlated in the whole troposphere except the bottom (962.5 hPa) and the top (85 hPa) layers. However, in the western Pacific, the interannual variations of Q1 below 850 hPa is negatively related to the SST. The correlation coefficient at the level 962.5 hPa reaches even –0.59. In other layers the positive correlation between the interannual variations of Q1, Q2 and the SST are weak in the western Pacific.

江淮梅雨期降水经向非均匀分布及异常年特征分析

尽管江淮梅雨期降水在多数年份具有一致的空间变率,然而在有些年份却呈现出南北反相的变化特征,而此时整个梅雨区的降水量往往接近正常,这无疑增加了梅雨短期气候预测的难度.鉴于上述考虑,对1951～2004年江淮地区15站梅汛期(6～7月份)降水进行了EOF分析,发现第二特征向量主要反映了梅雨期降水的经向非均匀分布特征,据此将梅雨雨型分为南涝北旱和南旱北涝型,并利用第一套NCEP再分析资料和第二套扩展重建海温资料(ERSST)对梅雨降水经向分布异常年的海气背景特征进行了研究,结果发现:南涝北旱年,梅雨期低层锋区和水汽辐合中心偏南,东亚副热带夏季风偏弱,西太平洋副热带高压和200 hPa南亚高压位置偏南;前期2月份北半球环状模(NAM)和南半球环状模(SAM)偏强,北半球冬、春季中国近海海温偏高.南旱北涝年,情况基本相反.此外,前期北半球冬季ENSO对梅雨期降水经向非均匀分布也具有一定的影响作用.

Representation of the Arctic Oscillation in the CMIP5 Models

The temporal variability and spatial pattern of the Arctic Oscillation(AO)simulated in the historical experiment of26 coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)are evaluated.Spectral analysis of the monthly AO index indicates that 23 out of the 26 CMIP5 models exhibit no statistically significant spectral peak in the historical experiment,as seen in the observations.These models are able to reproduce the AO pattern in the sea level pressure anomaly field during boreal winter,but the intensity of the AO pattern tends to be overestimated in all the models.The zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies associated with the AO is dominated by a meridional dipole in the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter,which is well reproduced by only a few models.Most models show significant biases in both strength and location of the dipole compared to the observation.In considering the temporal variability as well as spatial structures in both horizontal and vertical directions,the MPI-ESM-P model reproduces an AO pattern that resembles the observation the best.

Associations between the Autumn Arctic Sea Ice and North American Winter Precipitation

Associations between the autumn Arctic sea ice concentrations (SICs) and North American winter precipitation were examined using singular value decomposition. The results show that a reduced SIC in the majority of the Arctic is accompanied by dry conditions over the Great Plains, the southern United States, Mexico, eastern Alaska, and southeastern Greenland, and by wet conditions over the majority of Canada, the northeastern United States, and the majority of Greenland. Atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the SIC variability show a wave train structure that is persistent from autumn to winter and is responsible for the covariability between the autumn Arctic SICs and North American winter precipitation. This relationship suggests a potential long-term outlook for the North American winter precipitation.