A Seasonal Prediction Model for the Summer Rainfall in Northeast China Using the Year-To-Year Increment Approach

Using the year-to-year increment approach,this study investigated the relationship of selected climatic elements with the increment time series of the summer rainfall between successive years in Northeast China,including the soil moisture content,sea surface temperature,500 hPa geopotential height,and sea level pressure in the preceding spring for the period 1981-2008.Two spring predictors were used to construct the seasonal prediction model:the area mean soil moisture content in Northwest Eurasia and the 500 hPa geopotential height over Northeast China.Both the cross-validation and comparison with previous studies showed that the above two predictors have good predicting ability for the summer rainfall in Northeast China.

ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN THE FIRST RAINING SEASON (APRIL-JUNE) IN SOUTHERN CHINA AND SST OVER OFFSHORE WATERS IN CHINA

Precipitation anomalies in the first raining season of southern China were analyzed,with the suggestion that there are obvious interannual variation of peak values.In the raining season,the general tendency of precipitation is not obvious and the anomalous oscillation is multi-scale.Corresponding to years of more or less precipitation in the raining season,there are sharply opposite distribution across the nation in the simultaneous periods.In addition,by studying the distribution of correlation between anomalous precipitation in southern China in the first raining season and SSTA over offshore waters of China in the preceding period (June ～August of the previous year),a sensitive zone of waters has been found that has steady effect on the precipitation of southern China in the season.Discussions are also made of the sensitive period,its simultaneous SSTA and subsequent anomalous circulation field in relation to precipitation anomalies and simultaneous circulation field in the first raining season of southern China.In the last part of the work,relationship between the SSTA in the sensitive zone and global SSTA is analyzed.A possible mechanism by which SSTA in offshore Chinese waters affects the precipitation anomalies in the first raining season of southern China is put forward.

The standards for skill assessment of operational marine forecast system

To support navigational and environmental applications in coastal waters, marine opera- tional forecast models must be developed and implemented. A forecast model must guarantee that it is scientifically sound and practically robust for performance and must meet or excel all target frequencies or durations before being released to the public. This paper discusses the standard policies and procedures for evaluation of operational marine forecast models. The primary variables to be evaluated are water lev- els, currents and water density (water temperature and salinity).

Coral Bleaching in Arrecifes de Cozumel National Park after Tropical Storm Rina in October 2011

Extensive bleaching of Montastrea annularis spp. group and several other scleractinian taxa occurred on the reefs within the Arrecifes de Cozumel National Park of Cozumel, Mexico, after the passage of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Rina. We conducted six drift dives at five different dive sites （-13 h of scuba diving） and photographed a variety of reefs scenes at depths of 10-28 m. Bleaching was noted at depths of 10-40 m in a variety of scleractinian species, including M. annularis species group, especially M. faveolata and Siderastrea siderea. Considering that local dive guides had not observed bleaching prior to the storm and the sea surface temperature did not exceed the local bleaching threshold, it is probable that the extensive rainfall associated with Hurricane/Tropical Storm Rina lowered salinity sufficiently via subsurface freshwater springs to cause bleaching in susceptible species. This suggests the need to monitor not only subsurface sea temperature but also subsurface salinity in localities where freshwater springs occur adjacent to or within coral reefs.

Thermal Analyses of Combined Utilization Process of Seawater by Solar Chimney

It is promising to simultaneously develop multiple products through the combined utilization of seawater by solar chimney technology. A small scale experimental system was set up. The collector temperature, the seawater temperature, and the temperature and humidity of the airflow under the collector were measured. Thermal network analysis of the system was carried out. The results show that the airflow is nearly saturated at the entrance of the chimney, and the mean dry-bulb and wet-bulb temperatures of the airflow have increased by 8.4 ℃ and 9.6 ℃, respectively. The radiation heat transfer between the collector and the sky is the biggest heat loss in the system, which is up to 29.1% on average of the solar energy. However, the water evaporation heat is about 23.6% on average of the solar energy. To reduce the heat loss and enhance the water evaporation, it is necessary to reduce the emissivity and thermal conductivity of the collector and increase the evaporation areas.

A Pilot Study on the Effects of Temperature on the Blooms of the Benthic Mucilage-Forming Microalga Chrysophaeum taylorii

C. taylorii （Chrysophaeum taylorii） Lewis and Bryan （Pelagophyceae） are benthic mucilage-producing microalgae recently recorded in the Mediterranean Sea, where its summer blooms are having detrimental effects on benthic communities, fisheries and tourism, especially along the Sardinian coasts （western Mediterranean Sea）. Although few informations on the bloom dynamics of this microalga are available in literature jet, recent studies have hypothesized that sea water temperature plays a major role in determining the distribution and abundance of C. taylorii. The goal of this pilot study was to verify the above-mentioned statement providing experimental evidence for it. To this purpose, C. taylorii presence and abundance were investigated along a temperature gradient near the powerhouse of Torre Valdaliga （Latium coasts）, where a stream of hot water is continuously pumped out from the powerhouse into the sea. The obtained data showed that C. taylorii abundance was significantly higher in the study sites nearer to the powerhouse and a positive correlation between water temperature and cell densities was found, thus confirming that water temperature is one of the environmental variables directly influencing the bloom dynamics of this microalga in the Mediterranean Sea.

ON STRONG SIGNALS OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN EARLY RAINING SEASON OF GUANGDONG AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS OF PREDICTION

Reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR are used to systematically study preceding signals of monthly precipitation anomalies in the early raining season of Guangdong province, from the viewpoints of 500-hPa geopotential height field, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) field, sea surface temperature (SST) and fourteen indexes of general circulation depicting atmosphere activity at high, middle and low latitutes. Being multiple tools of information, a number of conceptual models are formulated that are useful for prediction of the magnitude of monthly precipitation (drought, flood and normal conditionss).

喜讯：全球珊瑚礁白化之迷已于被破解

海南南海热带海洋生物及病害研究所经过半年多时间的研究，已于2005年1月28日成功地破解了全球珊瑚白化之迷。该研究结果表明，引起珊瑚白化与死亡的根本原因是病原微生物、原虫等的侵袭，而全球海水水温升高、局部海域缺氧、光线不足等仅是诱发因子。该研究报告不久将向全球公布，该项目的首席专家为陈宏先生。

Correlation between δ^(18)O, Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca of coral Acropora and seawater temperature from coral culture experiments

To be used as proxies of seawater surface temperature （SST）, the 61Soc values and Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios of scleractinian coral skeletons must be verified by coral culture experiments in the laboratory. This paper describes a coral culture experiment that was conducted at several seawater temperatures T （21-28℃） using a tandem aquarium system and the new method for depositing coral skeletons grown under controlled conditions. The δ180c values and the St/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios of the cultured coral were measured. We concluded that the δ18Oc values and Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca ratios of the cultured coral are clearly corre- lated with T. The linear regression curve is δ18Oc（‰）=-0.1427×T（℃）-0.1495 （n=18, r=0.955, p〈0.0001）, and the slope of -0.1427‰/°d℃ is at the low end of the range of published values （-0.13-0.29‰/°d℃）. The Sr/Ca ratio decreases with increas- ing T, whereas the Mg/Ca ratio increases with increasing T, indicating a negative correlation between Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca. Their linear regression curves are Sr/Ca（mmol/mol）=-O.O4156×T＋lO.59 （n=15, r=-0.789, p〈0.005） and Mg/Ca （mmol/mol）= 0.04974×T＋2.339 （n=17, r=-0.457, p〈0.05）, respectively, which demonstrate that when Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca are increased by one unit, T increases by 5.19℃and decreases by 15.62℃, respectively. These variations are significantly lower than published values.