海洋气候变化预估及研究方法综述

概述了目前预估的未来海洋气候变化状态,总结了在气候变化预估中常用的气候模式,包括简单概念性气候模式、中等复杂程度气候模式、气候系统模式和地球系统模式,介绍了海洋气候变化预估的多模式集合法和动力降尺度法。指出当前对一些对气候变化影响较大的区域海洋和气候系统自然变率的模拟预估研究还存在很多不足之处。高分辨率气候系统模式和基于多模式集合的概率预估可以在一定程度上减少海洋气候变化预估的不确定性,高分辨率气候模式的研发和概率预估的应用是当前的两个主要发展趋势。

全球海洋治理视野下海洋气候变化的法律规制:现状、特征与前景

海洋气候变化是全球海洋治理的新议题之一。就其法律规制特征而言,规制方式表现为气候变化法的直接规制与海洋法的间接规制,规制目标兼具行为导向的风险预防和结果导向的损害预防,一些国际组织和机构对海洋气候变化的态度存在分歧,而规制状态呈现宏观层面的碎片化和微观层面的体系化。海洋气候变化印证了在全球海洋治理中不同治理议题间相互联系的特征,突显了海洋综合治理需求与碎片化制度现状间的矛盾。对此,应当在制度层面实现气候变化制度与海洋法制度的互动,在规则层面促进气候变化法与海洋法的体系化解释,在机制层面建立应对海洋气候变化的联系与协调机制。

THE FREQUENCY CHARACTERISTICS OF WARM AND COLD EPISODES IN THE NIO REGIONS

On the basis of NOAA/CPC data of sea surface temperature anomaly in the Nifio regions during Jan. 1950 - Dec. 2003, the wavelet power spectrum of SST were studied with significance and confidence testing at different scales in this paper. It shows that the SST are provided with multi-time scales structure nested one another, and vary on scales of 2 - 7 years, 8 - 20 years and 〉30 years. The most significant variation of the warm and cold episodes is in the 4-year band of period. The power, frequency structure and confidence of the same episode are different in different Nino regions. The intensity of oscillations is increasing at low frequency bands and decreasing at high frequency bands from east to west in the Nino regions, especially after 1970.

Swells of the East China Sea

Over the past few decades,an increasing number of marine activities have been conducted in the East China Sea,including the construction of various marine structures and the passage of large ships.Marine safety issues are paramount and are becoming more important with respect to the likely increase in size of ocean waves in relation to global climate change and associated typhoons.In addition,swells also can be very dangerous because they induce the resonance of floating structures,including ships.This study focuses on an investigation of swells in the East China Sea and uses hindcast data for waves over the past 5 years in a numerical model,WAVEWATCH III(WW3),together with historical climate data.The numerical calculation domain covers the entire North West Pacific.Next,swells are separated and analyzed using simulated wave fields,and both the characteristics and generation mechanisms of swells are investigated.

Study on the Seasonal Variation of the Suspended Sediment Distribution and Transportation in the East China Seas Based on SeaWiFS Data

The monthly mean suspended sediment concentration in the upper layer of the East China Seas was derived from the retrieval of the monthly binned SeaWiFS Level 3 data during 1998 to 2006. The seasonal variation and spatial distribution of the suspended sediment concentration in the study area were investigated. It was found that the suspended sediment distribution presents apparent spatial characteristics and seasonal variations, which are mainly affected by the resuspension and transportation of the suspended sediment in the study area. The concentration of suspended sediment is high inshore and low offshore, and river mouths are generally high concentration areas. The suspended sediment covers a much wider area in winter than in summer, and for the same site the concentration is generally higher in winter. In the Yellow and East China Seas the suspended sediment spreads farther to the open sea in winter than in summer, and May and October are the transitional periods of the extension. Winds, waves, currents, thermocline, halocline, pycnocline as well as bottom sediment feature and distribution in the study area are important influencing factors for the distribution pattern. If the 10rag L^-1 contour line is taken as an indicator, it appears that the transportation of suspended sediment can hardly reach 124^o00＇E in summer or 126^o00＇E in winter, which is due to the obstruction of the Taiwan Warm Current and the Kuroshio Current in the southern Yellow Sea and the East China Sea.

Responses of Primary Productivity to Current and Climate Changes in the Mud Area to the Southwest of Cheju Island During the Past 800 Years

The biogenic silica (BSi) ,total organic carbon (TOC) ,total nitrogen (TN) and grain size were analyzed with a gravity core (3250-6) collected from the mud area in the north East China Sea.The average deposition rate of the upper core was about 0.078cm yr1based on the results of 210Pbex.The mean grain size increased with depth in general.The frequency distribution of grain size showed that two marked changes of deposition environment occurred at 30 cm and 50 cm depths (about 1550 AD and 1300 AD,respectively) .The variations of BSi and TOC indicated two distinct major periods of primary productivity over the past 800 years:a stage of low primary productivity corresponding to weak upwelling and low nutrient input below 30 cm depth (about 1200-1550 AD) ,and a stage of high primary productivity with strong currents and upwelling above 30 cm depth (about 1550-1950 AD) .The stage with high primary productive appeared to be due to the northward-expanded muddy area caused by strong Asian Winter Monsoon and enhanced Yellow Sea Warm Current in winter.In conclusion,the BSi and TOC in the muddy sediments,the symbols of marine primary productivity,can be then used to investigate the evolution history of currents and relative climate change in the offshore areas.

The ocean response to climate change guides both adaptation and mitigation efforts

The ocean’s thermal inertia is a major contributor to irreversible ocean changes exceeding time scales that matter to human society.This fact is a challenge to societies as they prepare for the consequences of climate change,especially with respect to the ocean.Here the authors review the requirements for human actions from the ocean’s perspective.In the near term(∼2030),goals such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)will be critical.Over longer times(∼2050–2060 and beyond),global carbon neutrality targets may be met as countries continue to work toward reducing emissions.Both adaptation and mitigation plans need to be fully implemented in the interim,and the Global Ocean Observation System should be sustained so that changes can be continuously monitored.In the longer-term(after∼2060),slow emerging changes such as deep ocean warming and sea level rise are committed to continue even in the scenario where net zero emissions are reached.Thus,climate actions have to extend to time scales of hundreds of years.At these time scales,preparation for“high impact,low probability”risks—such as an abrupt showdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation,ecosystem change,or irreversible ice sheet loss—should be fully integrated into long-term planning.

Interannual Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the Northern Indian Ocean Associated with ENSO and IOD

The Northern Indian Ocean （NIO） sea surface temperature （SST） warming, associated with the E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillations （ENSO） and the Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD） mode, is investigated using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set （ICOADS） monthly data for the period 1979-2010. Statistical analy- ses are used to identify respective contribution from ENSO and IOD. The results indicate that the first NIO SST warming in September-November is associated with an IOD event, while the second NIO SST warming in spring-summer following the mature phase of ENSO is associated with an ENSO event. In the year that IOD co-occurred with ENSO, NIO SST warms twice, rising in the ENSO developing year and decay year. Both short- wave radiation and latent heat flux contribute to the NIO SST variation. The change in shortwave radiation is due to the change in cloudiness. A cloud-SST feedback plays an important role in NIO SST warming. The latent heat flux is related to the change in monsoonal wind. In the first NIO warming, the SST anomaly is mainly due to the change in the latent heat flux. In the second NIO warming, both factors are important.

The Structure of a Typical Mei-Yu Front Identified by the Equivalent Temperature

In China's Mainland, the summer monsoon rainy band is referred to as the mei-yu precipitation front, which extends northward from South China to the Yangtze River, Huaihe River, and Yellow River, depending on the season. This paper describes the structure of the mei-yu front associated with a persistent heavy rainfall event that occurred in the summer of 2007. The mei-yu front occurs when the subtropical oceanic warm, moist air mass and the extra tropical continental dry, cold air mass converge on the lee side of the Tibetan Plateau. The authors defined the equivalent temperature using two terms of dry-air temperature and the specific humidity and calculated its horizontal gradient to indicate the mei-yu front. The vertical structure of the mei-yu front and the moist thermal winds surrounding it were examined based on the equivalent temperature.

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH OF THE PACIFIC-INDIAN OCEAN SSTA MODE AND DEFINITION OF ITS INDEX

Applying the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to the sea surface temperature (SST) field of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans for determination of the first eigenvector field, the current work reveals that there are significant zonal gradients of SST in all seasons of the year in the northwestern and eastern Indian Ocean and equatorial central and eastern Pacific and western Pacific. It is also found that the variance contribution rates of the first EOF mode of every season is more than 33%. This shows that this kind of spatial distribution of the SST is stable. This pattern is named Pacific-Indian Oceans SSTA mode. Through careful analysis and comparison, an index of the mode was defined.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE INFLUENCE OF INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE ON CLIMATIC VARIATIONS OVER EAST ASIAN MONSOON REGION DURING EQUATORIAL EAST PACIFIC OCEAN SSTA

This paper investigates the influence of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on climatic variations over East Asian monsoon region, based on CAS IAP AGCM-Ⅱduring Equatorial East Pacific Ocean SSTA or not. The results show that the southwest monsoon over East Asian will break out later than normal, the intensity of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea (SCS) is stronger than normal, and more rainfall on Chinese main land is simulated when only IOD forcing exists. With both IOD and Equatorial East Pacific Ocean SSTA forcing, the southwest monsoon will break out much later than normal, the intensity of the SCS summer monsoon also is weaker than normal, and less rainfall in North China is simulated. Therefore, Equatorial East Pacific Ocean SSTA and IOD have a synergic effect.

Primary Discussion of a Carbon Sink in the Oceans

As a consequence of global warming and rising sea levels, the oceans are becoming a matter of concern for more and more people because these changes will impact the growth of living organisms as well as people＇s living standards. In particular, it is extremely important that the oceans absorb massive amounts of carbon dioxide. This paper takes a pragmatic approach to analyzing the oceans with respect to the causes of discontinuities in oceanic variables of carbon dioxide sinks. We report on an application of chemical, physical and biological methods to analyze the changes of carbon dioxide in oceans. Based on the relationships among the oceans, land, atmosphere and sediment with respect to carbon dioxide, the foundation of carbon dioxide in shell-building and ocean acidification, the changes in carbon dioxide in the oceans and their impact on climate change, and so on, a vital conclusion can be drawn from this study. Specifically, under the condition that the oceans are not disturbed by external forces, the oceans are a large carbon dioxide sink. The result can also be inferred by the formula： C=A-B and G=E＋F when the marine ecosystem can keep a natural balance and the amount of carbon dioxide emission is limited within the calrying capacity of the oceans.

Seasonal Change of Steric Sea Level in the GIN Seas

The Greenland Sea,Iceland Sea,and Norwegian Sea (GIN seas) form the main channel connecting the Arctic Ocean with other Oceans,where significant water and energy exchange take place,and play an important role in global climate change.In this study steric sea level,associated with temperature and salinity,in the GIN seas is examined based on analysis of the monthly temperature and salinity fields from Polar science center Hydrographic Climatology (PHC3.0).A method proposed by Tabata et al.is used to calculate steric sea level,in which,steric sea level change due to thermal expansion and haline contraction is termed as the thermosteric component (TC) and the halosteric component (SC),recpectively.Total steric sea level (TSSL) change is the sum of TC and SC.The study shows that SC is making more contributions than TC to the seasonal change of TSSL in the Greenland Sea,whereas TC contributes more in the Norwegian and the Iceland Seas.Annual variation of TSSL is larger than 50 mm over most regions of the GIN Seas,and can be larger than 200 mm at some locations such as 308 mm at 76.5 N,12.5 E and 246 mm at 77.5 N,17.5 W.

Simulation of Volume and Heat Transport along 26.5°N in the Atlantic

The observed meridional overtuming circula- tion （MOC） and meridional heat transport （MHT） estimated from the Rapid Climate Change/Meridional Circu- lation and Heat Flux Array （RAPID/MOCHA） at 26.5°N are used to evaluate the volume and heat transport in the eddy-resolving model LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model （LICOM）. The authors find that the Florida Cur- rent transport and upper mid-ocean transport of the model are underestimated against the observations. The simulated variability of MOC and MHT show a high correlation with the observations, exceeding 0.6. Both the simulated and observed MOC and MHT show a significant seasonal variability. According to the power spectrum analysis, LICOM can represent the mesoscale eddy characteristic of the MOC similar to the observation. The model shows a high correlation of 0.58 for the internal upper mid-ocean transport （MO） and a density difference between the western and eastern boundaries, as noted in previous studies.

Advances in GDGT research in Chinese Marginal Seas: A review

Archaeal and bacterial glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers(GDGTs) play a unique role in discerning the biogeochemical processes and climate change in terrestrial(e.g. soil, peat, stalagmites, lakes, rivers, hot springs) and marine environments. Organic proxies based on GDGTs(e.g. TEX_(86), MBT/CBT and BIT) have made impressive applications in the open ocean and terrestrial environments. However, the applicability of these proxies in marginal seas has not been thoroughly evaluated, which is necessary given the complexity and dynamics of these systems, such as organic matter(OM) flux, hydrodynamic conditions, and human impact. This review aims to summarize recent studies of GDGTs and GDGT-based proxies in the Chinese marginal seas(CMS), which are characterized by diverse gradient in terrigenous supplies and ocean productivity and hold rich information on climate and sea level changes, ocean current dynamics, sedimentary evolution and biogeochemical processes.

A review of ecological impacts of global climate change on persistent organic pollutant and mercury pathways and exposures in arctic marine ecosystems

Bioaccumulative and biomagnifying contaminants, such as persistent organic pollutants （POPs） and mercury （Hg）, have for decades been recognized as a health concern in arctic marine biota. In recent years, global climate change （GCC） and related loss of arctic sea ice have been observed to be driving substantial change in arctic ecosystems. This review summarizes findings documenting empirical links between GCC-induced ecological changes and alterations in POP and Hg exposures and pathways in arctic marine ecosystems. Most of the studies have reported changes in POP or Hg concentrations in tissue in relation to GCC-induced changes in species trophic interactions. These studies have typically focused on the role of changes in abun- dance, habitat range or accessibility of prey species, particularly in relation to sea ice changes. Yet, the ecological change that re- suited in contaminant trend changes has often been unclear or assumed. Other studies have successfully used chemical tracers, such as stable nitrogen and carbon isotope ratios and fatty acid signatures to link such ecological changes to contaminant level variations or trends. Lower sea ice linked-diet changes/variation were associated with higher contaminant levels in some popula- tions of polar bears, ringed seals, and thick-billed murres, but the influence of changing trophic interactions on POP levels and trends varied widely in both magnitude and direction. We suggest that future research in this new area of GCC-linked ecotox- icology should focus on routine analysis of ancillary ecological metrics with POP and Hg studies, simultaneous consideration of the multiple mechanisms by which GCC and contaminant interactions can occur, and targeted research on changing exposures and toxicological effects in species known to be sensitive to both GCC and contaminants [Current Zoology 61 （4）： 617-628, 2015].

Interpreting the sea surface temperature warming trend in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

Previous studies have demonstrated that the low-frequency sea surface temperature(SST) variability in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea(YECS) is linked to large-scale climate variability, but explanations on the mechanisms vary. This study examines the low-frequency variability and trends of some atmospheric and oceanic variables to discuss their different effects on the YECS warming. The increasing temperature trend is also observed at a hydrographic section transecting the Kuroshio.The increasing rate of ocean temperature decreases with depth, which might result in an increase in vertical stratification and a decrease in vertical mixing, and thus plays a positive role on the YECS warming. The surface net heat flux(downward positive)displays a decreasing trend, which is possibly a result of the YECS warming, and, in turn, inhibits it. Wind speeds show different trends in different datasets, such that its role in the YECS warming is uncertain. The trends in wind stress divergence and curl have large uncertainties, so their effects on SST warming are still unclear. The Kuroshio heat transport calculated in this study,displays no significantly increasing trend, so is an unlikely explanation for the SST warming. Limited by sparse ocean observations,sophisticated assimilative climate models are still needed to unravel the mechanisms behind the YECS warming.

Potential effects of climate change on a marine invasion： The importance of current context

Species invasions threaten marine biodiversity globally. There is a concern that climate change is exacerbating this problem. Here, we examined some of the potential effects of warming water temperatures on the invasion of Western Atlantic habitats by a marine predator, the Indo-Pacific lionfish （Pterois volitans and P. miles）. We focussed on two temperature-dependent aspects of lionfish life-history and behaviour： pelagic larval duration, because of its link to dispersal potential, and prey consump- tion rate, because it is an important determinant of the impacts of lionfish on native prey. Using models derived from fundamental metabolic theory, we predict that the length of time spent by lionfish in the plankton in early life should decrease with warming temperatures, with a concomitant reduction in potential dispersal distance. Although the uncertainty around change in dispersal distances is large, predicted reductions are, on average, more than an order of magnitude smaller than the current rate of range expansion of lionfisli in the Caribbean. Nevertheless, because shorter pelagic larval duration has the potential to increase local re- tention of larvae, local lionfish management will become increasingly important under projected climate change. Increasing tem- perature is also expected to worsen the current imbalance between rates of prey consumption by lionfish and biomass production by their prey, leading to a heightened decline in native reef fish biomass. However, the magnitude of climate-induced decline is predicted to be minor compared to the effect of current rates of lionfish population increases （and hence overall prey consumption rates） on invaded reefs. Placing the predicted effects of climate change in the current context thus reveals that, at least for the lionfish invasion, the threat is clear and present, rather than future [Current Zoology 58 （1）： 1-8, 2012].