西北太平洋爆发性海洋气旋发生发展的气候学特征

通过对1979-1989半出现在120°E-180°E海域的北太平洋爆发性海洋气旋进行统计,分析研究爆发性海洋气旋发生发展的一些气候学特征。

热带气旋-海洋的相互作用对南海一个强热带气旋过程影响的数值模拟

采用中尺度海-气耦合模式MCM v1.0对南海强热带气旋“黄蜂”(No.0214)进行了数值模拟试验,并就热带气旋-海洋的相互作用对热带气旋的影响进行了定量分析。结果表明,耦合试验中热带气旋后期路径有显著改善,36h和48h路径误差分别减小22km和110km,登陆点位置误差减小22km;气旋强度与非耦合结果基本一致,36—48h气旋强度减弱得更快;热带气旋中心大风区地面风速增大1—3m.s-1,眼区附近风速减小2—5m.s-1;近地层(取925hPa)气温降低1℃以上,且气温降温区与较大的SST下降区域大致吻合;改进了热带气旋暴雨的落区及降水强度,且主要落区误差的修正位于热带气旋移动路径的右侧并同主要的SST降温区相关;热带气旋-海洋相互作用通过SST下降减少向上的热通量,潜热通量的减少对SST的下降更敏感。

不同垂直加热率对爆发性气旋发展的影响

文章着眼于海洋温带气旋爆发性发展热力结构的影响效应问题。通过数值试验的结果表明，温带气旋发展状况对于垂直加热廓线分布具有突出的敏感性，若将垂直加热廓线“形变”，则可能导致海洋气旋的爆发性发展，并构成类似观测到的“气象炸弹”动力，热力结构，即“上干下湿”，“上冷下暖”的不稳定层结或“抽吸”结构，急流轴“断裂”形成的非地转偏差特征。从而揭示了垂直加热廓线特征在海洋气旋发展诸影响因子中的关键作用以及潜热释放分布与海洋气旋动力、热力结构形成的机理。

西大西洋锋面气旋过程的数值模拟和等熵分析

文中使用PSU/NCARMM 5非静力数值模式对 1992年 3月 13～ 15日发生在西大西洋上的一次海洋气旋爆发过程进行了 6 0h的模拟 ;基于倾斜涡度发展理论 ,从等熵面倾斜的角度研究了气旋的发生、发展、运动和变化 ,利用高分辨率模拟结果对这次过程进行了分析。模拟结果很好地再现了气旋的发生、移动、加深、气旋的热力结构以及地面环流等特征。其中主要气旋M在6 0h的模拟中共降压 4 5hPa ;第 36～ 4 2时 (模式时间 ) 6h内降压达 12hPa。剖面图及等熵面图分析指出 ,气旋的发生、发展、运动和变化与等熵面或等相当位温面的倾斜密切相关 ,气旋中心总是位于等熵面或等相当位温面近于垂直的对流中性地区 ,这与倾斜涡度发展理论的阐述是一致的。气旋在弱静力稳定度的海洋表面启动发展之后 ,气旋与大尺度环境场相互作用 ,气旋得到迅速发展。“倾斜涡度发展理论”(以下简称SVD理论 )可以很好地解释此次海洋锋面气旋的发展与移动。气旋的发展和移动与等熵面的倾斜密切相关 ,发展期气旋前部及其移动路径前方自组织的斜升气流与倾斜的等熵面相配合 ,共同构成上滑“倾斜涡度发展”(SVD理论的推广 ,以下简称USVD理论 )的必要因子 ,在一定的条件下 (C·D<0 ,CD 为SVD指数 ) ,使得气旋及其前方 ,尤其是移动路径前方出现USVD发?

应用ω方程对爆发性气旋与非爆发性气旋的诊断对比分析

对发生在北太平洋西部中高纬度海洋上的两个爆发性气旋和一个非爆发性气旋进行了非地转ω方程诊断分析.认为强的温度平流、涡度平流、位涡平流和凝结潜热释放是使气旋爆发性发展的主要因子,爆发性气旋发展过程是一特殊的斜压过程,存在着某种自我激发的机制.非爆发性气旋不但其发展因子(如涡度平流、温度平流、位涡平流、潜热释放等)在量的方面较爆发性气旋要小,自我激发性机制表现得也不明显.爆发性气旋与非爆发性气旋的发展,不但强度上存在量的差异,而且其发展机制也存在质的差异.

海洋二号卫星A星微波散射计在台风遥感监测中的应用

海洋二号卫星A星(HY-2A)搭载的微波散射计具有全天时、全天候的全球海面风场观测能力,每天可以观测全球90%的区域,捕捉到全球海域几乎所有的海洋气旋,是目前在轨运行的唯一具有该能力的海洋微波有效载荷。同时,微波散射计还可以确定台风强度、位置、方向和结构,为台风灾害的预警和预防提供有力的数据支撑。

中国近海和西太平洋温带气旋的气候学研究

依据开展海洋气旋现场海洋调查任务的需要 ,利用历史天气图资料 ,对 1 990～1 998年 5～ 6月黄海和东海气旋进行了统计分析 ,概括出其气候学特征 ,并对 1 979～1 989年间冷季中国近海和西太平洋的海洋爆发性气旋活动的气候规律进行分析 ,与相关研究结果作了比较 .尤其指出 。

The upper ocean response to tropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific analyzed with Argo data

A large number of autonomous profiling floats deployed in global oceans have provided abundant temperature and salinity profiles of the upper ocean. Many floats occasionally profile observations during the passage of tropical cyclones. These in-situ observations are valuable and useful in studying the ocean’s response to tropical cyclones, which are rarely observed due to harsh weather conditions. In this paper, the upper ocean response to the tropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific during 2000–2005 is analyzed and discussed based on the data from Argo profiling floats. Results suggest that the passage of tropical cyclones caused the deepening of mixed layer depth (MLD), cooling of mixed layer temperature (MLT), and freshening of mixed layer salinity (MLS). The change in MLT is negatively correlated to wind speed. The cooling of the MLT extended for 50–150 km on the right side of the cyclone track. The change of MLS is almost symmetrical in distribution on both sides of the track, and the change of MLD is negatively correlated to pre-cyclone initial MLD.

The Upper Ocean Thermal Structure and the Genesis Locations of Tropical Cyclones in the South China Sea

The relationship between the upper ocean thermal structure and the genesis locations of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated by using the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track archives and high resolution (1/4 degree) temperature analyses of the world's oceans in this paper. In the monthly mean genesis positions of TCs from 1945 to 2005 in the SCS, the mean sea surface temperature (SST) was 28.8℃ and the mean depth of 26℃ water was 53.1 m. From the monthly distribution maps of genesis positions of TCs, SST and the depth of 26℃ water in the SCS, we discovered that there existed regions with SST exceeding 26℃ and 26℃ water depth exceeding 50 m where no tropical cyclones formed from 1945 to 2005 in the SCS, which suggests that there were other factors unfavorable for TC formation in these regions.

Effect of Sea Spray on the Numerical Simulation of Super Typhoon ‘Ewiniar’

To study the potential effect of sea spray on the evolution of typhoons,two kinds of sea spray flux parameterization schemes developed by Andreas (2005) and Andreas and Wang (2006) and Fairall et al. (1994) respectively are incorporated into the regional atmospheric Mesoscale Model version 3.6 (MM5V3) of Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) and the coupled atmosphere-sea spray modeling system is applied to simulate a Western Pacific super ty-phoon Ewiniar in 2006. The simulation results demonstrate that sea spray can lead to a significant increase in heat fluxes at the air-sea interface and the simulated typhoon’s intensity. Compared with the results without sea spray,the minimum sea level pressure reduces about 8hPa after taking account of sea spray by Fairall et al.’s parameterization (1994) and about 5hPa by Andreas’ (2005) and Andreas and Wang’s (2006) parameterization at the end of the model integration,while the maximum 10m wind speed increases about 17% and 15% on average,respectively,through the entire simulation time period. Taking sea spray into account also causes significant changes in Tropical Cyclone (TC) structure due to an enhancement of water vapor and heat transferred from the sea sur-face to the air; therefore,the center structure of the typhoon becomes more clearly defined and the wind speed around the typhoon eye is stronger in numerical experiments. The simulations show that different sea spray flux parameterizations make different modi-fications to the TC structure.

Impacts of tropical cyclone inflow angle on ocean surface waves

The inflow angle of tropical cyclones （TC） is generally neglected in numerical studies of ocean surface waves induced by TC. In this study, the impacts of TC inflow angle on ocean surface waves were investigated using a high-resolution wave model. Six numerical experiments were conducted to examine, in detail, thc effects of inflow angle on mean wave parameters and the spectrum of wave directions. A comparison of the waves simulated in these experiments shows that inflow angle significantly modifies TC-induced ocean surface waves. As the inflow angle increases, the asymmetric axis of the significant wave height （SWH） field shifts 30° clockwise, and the maximum SWH moves from the front-right to the rear-right quadrant. Inflow angle also affects other mean wave parameters, especially in the rear-left quadrant, such as the mean wave direction, the mean wavelength, and the peak direction. Inflow angle is a key factor in wave models for the reproduction of double-peak or multi-peak patterns in the spectrum of wave directions. Sensitivity experiments also show that the simulation with a 40° inflow angle is the closest to that of the NOAA statistical SLOSH inflow angle. This suggests that 40° can be used as the inflow angle in future TC-induced ocean surface wave simulations when SLOSH or observed inflow angles are not available.

Occurrences of Wintertime Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific under the Background of Global Warming

Using tropical cyclone （TC） observations over a 58-yr period （1949-2006） from the China Meteorological Administration, the 40-year ECMWF Reanalysis （ERA-40）, NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, and the Hadley Centre sea ice and sea surface temperature （HadISST） datasets, the authors have examined the behaviors of tropical cyclones （TCs） in the western north Pacific （WNP） in boreal winter （November-December-January-February）. The results demonstrate that the occurrences of wintertime TCs, including super typhoons, have decreased over the 58 years. More TCs are found to move westward than northeastward, and the annual total number of parabolic-track-type TCs is found to be decreasing. It is shown that negative sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） related to La Nifia events in the equatorial central Pacific facilitate more TC genesis in the WNP region. Large-scale anomalous cyclonic circulations in the tropical WNP in the lower troposphere are observed to be favorable for cyclogenesis in this area. On the contrary, the positive SSTAs and anomalous anticyclonic circulations that related to E1 Nifio events responsible for fewer TC genesis. Under the background of global warming, the western Pacific subtropical high tends to intensify and to expand more westward in the WNP, and the SSTAs display an increasing trend in the equatorial eastern-central Pacific. These climate trends of both atmospheric circulation and SSTAs affect wintertime TCs, inducing fewer TC occurrences and causing more TCs to move westward.

Vortex genesis over the Bay of Bengal in spring and its role in the onset of the Asian Summer Monsoon

Physical processes associated with onset of the 1998 Asian summer monsoon were examined in detail using multi-source datasets. We demonstrated that strong ocean-atmosphere-land interaction in the northern Indian Ocean and tropical Asian area during spring is a fundamental factor that induces the genesis and development of a monsoon onset vortex over the Bay of Bengal （BOB）, with the vortex in turn triggering onset of the Asian summer monsoon. In spring, strong surface sensible heat- ing over India and the Indochina Peninsula is transferred to the atmosphere, forming prominent in situ cyclonic circulation, with anticyclonic circulations over the Arabian Sea and northern BOB where the ocean receives abundant solar radiation. The corresponding surface winds along the North Indian Ocean coastal areas cause the ocean to produce the in situ offshore cur- rents and upwelling, resulting in sea surface temperature （SST） cooling. With precipitation on the Indochina Peninsula in- creasing from late April to early May, the offshore current disappears in the eastern BOB or develops into an onshore current, leading to SST increasing. A southwest-northeast oriented spring BOB warm pool with SST 〉31℃forms in a band from the southeastern Arabian Sea to the eastern BOB. In early May, the Somali cross-equatorial flow forms due to the meridional SST gradient between the two hemispheres, and surface sensible heat over the African land surface. The Somali flow overlaps in phase with the anticyclone over the northern Arabian Sea in the course of its inertial fluctuation along the equator. The con- vergent cold northerlies on the eastern side of the anticyclone cause the westerly in the inertial trough to increase rapidly, so that enhanced sensible heat is released from the sea surface into the atmosphere. The cyclonic vorticity forced by such sensible heating is superimposed on the inertial trough, leading to its further increase in vorticity strength. Since atmospheric inertial motion is destroyed, the flow deviates from the inertial track in an intensified cyclonic curvature, and then turns northward to- ward the warm pool in the northern BOB. It therefore converges with the easterly flow on the south side of the anticyclone over the northern BOB, forming a cyclonic circulation center east of Sri Lanka. Co-located with the cyclonic circulation is a generation of atmospheric potential energy, due to lower tropospheric heating by the warm ocean. Eventually the BOB mon- soon onset vortex （MOV） is generated east of Sri Lanka. As the MOV migrates northward to the warm pool it develops quickly such that the zonal oriented subtropical high is split over the eastern BOB. Thus, the tropical southwesterly on the southern and eastern sides of the MOV merges into the subtropical westerly in the north, leading to active convection over the eastern BOB and western Indochina Peninsula and onset of the Asian summer monsoon.

Upper ocean response to tropical cyclone wind forcing: A case study of typhoon Rammasun(2008)

The characteristics of the upper ocean response to tropical cyclone wind （TCW） forcing in the northwestern Pacific were in- vestigated using satellite and Argo data, as well as an ocean general circulation model. In particular, a case study was carried out on typhoon Rammasun, which passed through our study area during May 6-13, 2008. It is found that the local response fight under the TCW forcing is characterized by a quick deepening of the surface mixed layer, a strong latent heat loss to the atmosphere, and an intense upwelling near the center of typhoon, leading to a cooling of the oceanic surface layer that persists as a cold wake along the typhoon track. More interestingly, the upper ocean response exhibits a four-layer thermal structure, including a cooling layer near the surface and a warming layer right below, accompanied by another pair of cooling/warming layers in the thermocline. The formation of the surface cooling/warming layers can be readily explained by the strong vertical mixing induced by TCW forcing, while the thermal response in the thermocline is probably a result of the cyclone-driven upwelling and the associated advective processes.

Yearly tropical cyclone potential impact index in China

A new composite index called the yearly tropical cyclone potential impact(YTCPI)is introduced.The relationship between YTCPI and activities of tropical cyclones(TCs)in China,disaster loss,and main ambient fields are investigated to show the potential of YTCPI as a new tool for short-term climate prediction of TCs.YTCPI can indicate TC activity and potential disaster loss.As correlation coefficients between YTCPI and frequency of landfalling TCs,the frequency of TCs traversing or forming inside a 24 h warning line in China from 1971 to 2010 are 0.58 and 0.56,respectively(both are at a statistically significant level,aboveα=0.001).Furthermore,three simple indexes are used to compare with YTCPI.They all have very close relationships with it,with correlation coefficients 0.75,0.82 and 0.78.For economic loss and YTCPI,the correlation coefficient is 0.57 for 1994–2009.Information on principal ambient fields(sea surface temperature,850 and 500 hPa geopotential heights)during the previous winter is reflected in the relationship with YTCPI.Spatial and temporal variabilities of ambient fields are extracted through empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.Spatial distributions of correlation coefficient between YTCPI and ambient fields match the EOF main mode.Correlation coefficients between YTCPI and the EOF time array for the three ambient fields are 0.46,0.44 and 0.4,respectively,all statistically significant,aboveα=0.01.The YTCPI has the overall potential to be an improved prediction tool.