Recent studies have revealed that two boreal spring sea surface temperature （SST） indices have potential to predict the number of western North Pacific （WNP） tropical cyclones （TCs） in the following peak typhoon...Recent studies have revealed that two boreal spring sea surface temperature （SST） indices have potential to predict the number of western North Pacific （WNP） tropical cyclones （TCs） in the following peak typhoon season （June-October）： the northern tropical Atlantic （NTA） SST, and the SST gradient （SSTG） between the southwestern Pacific and western Pacic warm pool. The interannua[ and interdecadal variations of NTA SST and SSTG and their relationships to the number ofWNP TCs during 1950-2013 were compared. On the interdecadal timescale, SSTG showed better correlation with the number of WNP TCs than NTA SST. The interdecadal variation of NTA SST was closely associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, while that of SSTG was anti-correlated with the Central Pacific （CP） El Nino index at the interdecadal timescale. On the interannual timescale, both NTA SST and SSTG were modulated by two types of El Nino. The NTA SST revealed significant correlations with the number of WNPTCs beginning from the early 1960s; by contrast, SSTG showed significant correlations after the mid-1970s. Co-variability of NTA SST and SSTG existed after the late 1980s, induced by modulation from CP El Nino.The co-variability of these two spring SST predictors increased their prediction skill after the late 1980s, with enhanced correlation between the number of WNPTCs and the two predictors.展开更多
With correlation analysis and factor analysis methods, the effects of preceding Pacific SSTs on subtropical high indexes of main raining seasons are discussed. The results of correlation analysis show that the effects...With correlation analysis and factor analysis methods, the effects of preceding Pacific SSTs on subtropical high indexes of main raining seasons are discussed. The results of correlation analysis show that the effects of SSTs on five subtropical high indexes differ in seasons and regions. The variation of SSTs mostly affects the area and intensity indexes of the subtropical high, followed by the western ridge index, and the effect on the ridge line index is more remarkable than on the north boundary index. The results of factor analysis reveals that the first common factor of SST of each season reflected mainly the inverse relation of SSTs variation between the central and eastern part of equatorial Pacific and the western Pacific, which correlates better with the subtropical high indexes in the main raining seasons than other common factors of SST. The analysis of interdecadal variation indicated that the variation of SSTs was conducive to the emergence of the La Ni?a event before the end of 1970s, such that in the summer the subtropical high is likely to be weaker and smaller and located eastward and northward. After the 1980s, the opposite characteristics prevailed.展开更多
基金funded by the Guangdong Natural Science Foundation[grant number 2015A030313796]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41205026,41476009,41476010]+2 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number Xd A11010104]the National Program on Global Change and Air-Sea interaction[grant number GASi-i POVAi-04]the Knowledge innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number SQ201208]
文摘Recent studies have revealed that two boreal spring sea surface temperature （SST） indices have potential to predict the number of western North Pacific （WNP） tropical cyclones （TCs） in the following peak typhoon season （June-October）： the northern tropical Atlantic （NTA） SST, and the SST gradient （SSTG） between the southwestern Pacific and western Pacic warm pool. The interannua[ and interdecadal variations of NTA SST and SSTG and their relationships to the number ofWNP TCs during 1950-2013 were compared. On the interdecadal timescale, SSTG showed better correlation with the number of WNP TCs than NTA SST. The interdecadal variation of NTA SST was closely associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, while that of SSTG was anti-correlated with the Central Pacific （CP） El Nino index at the interdecadal timescale. On the interannual timescale, both NTA SST and SSTG were modulated by two types of El Nino. The NTA SST revealed significant correlations with the number of WNPTCs beginning from the early 1960s; by contrast, SSTG showed significant correlations after the mid-1970s. Co-variability of NTA SST and SSTG existed after the late 1980s, induced by modulation from CP El Nino.The co-variability of these two spring SST predictors increased their prediction skill after the late 1980s, with enhanced correlation between the number of WNPTCs and the two predictors.
文摘With correlation analysis and factor analysis methods, the effects of preceding Pacific SSTs on subtropical high indexes of main raining seasons are discussed. The results of correlation analysis show that the effects of SSTs on five subtropical high indexes differ in seasons and regions. The variation of SSTs mostly affects the area and intensity indexes of the subtropical high, followed by the western ridge index, and the effect on the ridge line index is more remarkable than on the north boundary index. The results of factor analysis reveals that the first common factor of SST of each season reflected mainly the inverse relation of SSTs variation between the central and eastern part of equatorial Pacific and the western Pacific, which correlates better with the subtropical high indexes in the main raining seasons than other common factors of SST. The analysis of interdecadal variation indicated that the variation of SSTs was conducive to the emergence of the La Ni?a event before the end of 1970s, such that in the summer the subtropical high is likely to be weaker and smaller and located eastward and northward. After the 1980s, the opposite characteristics prevailed.
