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基于遗传算法的门限自回归模型在海温预测中的应用 被引量:3
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作者 金菊良 丁晶 魏一鸣 《海洋环境科学》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 1999年第3期1-6,共6页
提出了建立门限自回归模型(TAR)的一套简便通用的方法。用作者提出的改进遗传算法,可同时优化门限值和自回归系数,成功地解决了TAR建模过程所涉及的大量复杂寻优工作这一难题,为TAR模型的广泛应用提供了强有力的工具。实... 提出了建立门限自回归模型(TAR)的一套简便通用的方法。用作者提出的改进遗传算法,可同时优化门限值和自回归系数,成功地解决了TAR建模过程所涉及的大量复杂寻优工作这一难题,为TAR模型的广泛应用提供了强有力的工具。实例计算的结果说明了这套方法的可行性和有效性,同时也说明了,通过门限值的控制作用,TAR模型可以有效地利用如海洋资源所隐含的时序分段相依性这一重要信息,限制了模型误差,从而保证了TAR模型预测性能的稳健性,提高了预测精度。该方法具有通用性。 展开更多
关键词 海温时间序列 门限自回归模型 预测 遗传算法
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Temporal variability of temperature-nitrate relationship in a coastal region
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作者 殷建平 林立 +1 位作者 王友绍 杜建伟 《Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2014年第4期879-885,共7页
The inverse relationship between nitrate and temperature(N-T relationship) has been used to estimate new production from remotely sensed sea surface temperature at the regional or global scale of oceans. This study ai... The inverse relationship between nitrate and temperature(N-T relationship) has been used to estimate new production from remotely sensed sea surface temperature at the regional or global scale of oceans. This study aimed to develop a time-series model of the N-T relationship from automated, continuous hourly observations over two years on the coast of Halifax, Canada. The model demonstrated time-series variability of the N-T relationship at a coastal station on the Nova Scotia Shelf, with adjusted R 2 =0.999 4 and RMSE=0.025 7. The maximum residual value was 0.077. The annual temperature variations described a sine curve, and daily, weekly, and monthly variations fluctuated within the normal ranges, controlled by the local climate. The annual variation of nitrate concentration formed nearly a sine curve. Heavy or longlasting rainfall increased nitrate concentration by 4 to 30-fold in 24 h, and then the increased nitrogen was quickly depleted by phytoplankton growth in 10 to 48 h. In general, biological activity was a key factor in causing nitrate concentration change, dependent mainly on seawater temperature. The power function of the N-T relationship observed in our study area could be used to quickly estimate sea surface nitrate concentration, in combination with temperature data obtained by remote sensing. 展开更多
关键词 sea surface temperature sea surface nitrate nitrate and temperature (N-T relationship) model Halifax Canada
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