近年秋季南美沿岸海表温度周期性下降对ENSO事件的可能影响

文章分析了1950年以来赤道南美沿岸海表温度变化特点,发现1999年以来,Nino1+2区海表温度的年变化振幅呈增大趋势,使得赤道东太平洋东北地区每年出现周期性降温,这主要是由秋季月平均SST最低值偏低造成,这种长时间持续偏低是1950年以来首次出现。进一步的分析表明,近年来南美沿岸海表温度在秋季的周期性下降可能对ENSO暖事件发生产生了影响,使得2002/2003ENSO暖事件成为20世纪50年代以来由冷事件向暖事件转换历时最长的一次。

Sea surface temperature anomalies in the South China Sea during mature phase of ENSO

Based on the 18-year （1993-2010） National Centers for Environmental Prediction optimum interpolation sea surface temperature （SST） and simple ocean data assimilation datasets, this study investigated the patterns of the SST anomalies （SSTAs） that occurred in the South China Sea （SCS） during the mature phase of the E1 Nifio/Southem Oscillation. The most dominant characteristic was that of the out- of-phase variation between southwestern and northeastern parts of the SCS, which was influenced primarily by the net surface heat flux and by horizontal thermal advection. The negative SSTA in the northeastern SCS was caused mainly by the loss of heat to the atmosphere and because of the cold-water advection from the western Pacific through the Luzon Strait during E1 Nifio episodes. Conversely, it was found that the anomalous large-scale atmospheric circulation and weakened western boundary current during E1 Nifio episodes led to the development of the positive SSTA in the southwestern SCS.

Impacts of the annual cycle of background SST in the tropical Pacific on the phase and amplitude of ENSO

The dominant annual cycle of sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Pacific exhibits an antisymmetric mode,which explains 83.4%total variance,and serves as a background of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,there is no consensus yet on its anomalous impacts on the phase and amplitude of ENSO.Based on data during 1982-2022,results show that anomalies of the antisymmetric mode can affect the evolution of ENSO on the interannual scale via Bjerknes feedback,in which the positive(negative)phase of the antisymmetric mode can strengthen El Niño(La Niña)in boreal winter via an earlier(delayed)seasonal cycle transition and larger(smaller)annual mean.The magnitude of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific can reach more than±0.3◦C,regulated by the changes in the antisymmetric mode based on random sensitivity analysis.Results reveal the spatial pattern of the annual cycle associated with the seasonal phase-locking of ENSO evolution and provide new insight into the impact of the annual cycle of background SST on ENSO,which possibly carries important implications for forecasting ENSO.

Variations of SST and Thermocline Depth in the Tropical Indian Ocean During Indian Ocean Dipole Events

Interannual variations in the surface and subsurface tropical Indian Ocean were studied using HadlSST and SODA datasets. Wind and heat flux datasets were used to discuss the mechanisms for these variations. Our results indicate that the surface and subsurface variations of the tropical Indian Ocean during Indian Ocean Dipole （IOD） events are significantly different. A prominent characteristic of the eastern pole is the SSTA rebound after a cooling process, which does not take place at the subsurface layer. In the western pole, the surface anomalies last longer than the subsurface anomalies. The subsurface anomalies are strongly correlated with ENSO, while the relationship between the surface anomalies and ENSO is much weaker. And the subsurface anomalies of the two poles are negatively correlated while they are positively correlated at the surface layer. The wind and surface heat flux analysis suggests that the thermocline depth variations are mainly determined by wind stress fields, while the heat flux effect is important on SST.

Relationships of Interannual Variability Between the Equatorial Pacific and Tropical Indian Ocean in 17 CMIP5 Models

Seventeen coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） are employed to assess the relationships of interannual variations of sea surface temperature （SST） between the tropical Pacific （TP） and tropical Indian Ocean （TIO）. The eastern/central equatorial Pacific features the strongest SST interannual variability in the models except for the model CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, and the simulated maximum and minimum are produced by models GFDL-ESM2M and GISS-E2-H respectively. However, It remains a challenge for these models to simulate the correct climate mean SST with the warm pool-cold tongue structure in the equatorial Pacific. Almost all models reproduce E1 Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO）, Indian Ocean Dipole mode （IOD） and Indian Ocean Basin-wide mode （lOB） together with their seasonal phase lock features being simulated; but the relationship between the ENSO and IOD is different for different models. Consistent with the observation, an Indian Ocean basin-wide warming （cooling） takes place over the tropical Indian Ocean in the spring following an E1 Nifio （La Nifia） in almost all the models. In some models （e.g., GFDL-ESM2G and MIROC5）, positive ENSO and IOB events are stronger than the negative events as shown in the observation. However, this asymmetry is reversed in some other models （e.g., HadGEM2-CC and HadGEM2-ES）.