罗盘在握不惧商海险与恶——大中型零售企业应突出自己的经营特色

1997年岁末,抗州“国大百货”舍弃“大而全”的经营格局,撤掉了800多平方米营业面积的家电场地,而将腾出的场地改设立为女装区、季节性女性商品区和女性饰品区,以更加突出“国大百货”以女性为主、中高档定位的商品个性。与此同时,杭州“解百”却扩大了300多平方米家电、电讯商品营业场地,家电经营种类更加齐全,突出了该商场家电“大而全”的特点。据统计,杭城上一年的“商战”规模和辐度已超过了“中原商战”,但各大商场相互间竞争的主要方式还只是打折。 市场竞争是多元化、全方位的深层次竞争,主要应靠企业自身素质的提高去参与。企业要想在竞争中立于不败之地,应根据“避实击虚”的原则,既要避对手之“实”,击对手之“虚”,又要塑造自己之“实”,形成自己的特色,发挥自身的优势,找准并占领有利的市场位置。1997年以来。

A Fuzzy Probabilistic Influence Diagram Method to Assess Marine Configuration Risk

A risk assessment method for marine configuration based on Fuzzy Probability Influence Diagram （FPID） and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis （FMEA） is established in this paper. Considering the fuzzy characteristic of the two key inputs such as event happening probability and relation probability, the method induces fuzzy probability into the PID risk assessment for marine configuration, where defuzzification is performed using the centroid method to determine the risk at a given grade of a probabilistic item. FMEA as a traditional qualitative analysis method is used to determine the effect factor structure. An application of the presented method for the offshore jacket platform is implemented. The method can be widely applicable although only offshore platform is analyzed here.

禅内禅外——怀念顾羡季先生

今年九月六日,窗外又有长杨落叶声的时候,想到顾先生撒手而去,是整整三十年了。在此日之前四天,由顾先生的一些高足发起。在北京举行了逝世三十周年纪念会,我参加了。纪念会的后话是印纪念文集以免“言之无文,行而不运”。文集还不只一种。其中一种是河北大学的,曰学报专栏。也许因为我与顾先生的交往是禅引起的吧,编者希望还具体前行一步,说可以就佛学的因缘写一写。这使我一则以惧,一则以喜。惧,是因为自己所知甚少。

Theoretical derivation of risk-ratios for assessing wind damage in a coastal forest

Based on the discussion of relationships between thinning and wind damage, and published information, a method for estimating risk ratios of wind damage was developed. Estimations of risk-ratio for Pinus thunbergii trees and stands were de-duced from stem bending theory and coefficients characterizing wind profile, distribution of branches and optical stratification po-rosity. The results showed that if the value of constant b in the branch distribution-model equals the attenuation coefficient s in the wind profile model for a single tree crown, then the parameter H/D1.33 (height over stem diameter cubed) can be used to compare and evaluate the risk-ratio of wind damage for individual trees. The same method can be applied to stands using the coefficient of wind profile in a stand, i.e. attenuation coefficient , the coefficient from distributions of optical stratification porosity, i.e. extinction coefficient , and the parameter D1.33. The application of parameter H/D1.33 and the process of determining risk ra-tios of wind damage for stands were also given in the paper.

Value evaluation of ecological risk of marine chemical spills

The environmental risk of chemical spills near coastal zones threatens abundant marine ecological resources. By appraising the ecological damage value of the environmental risk of marine chemical spills, we can facilitate decision-making for the development of a coastal zone and establishment of economic policy on coastal zone management. In this study, the ecological effect of the environmental risk of a chemical spill in the Haicang chemical industrial park in Xiamen was identified, after which its impact was forecasted and its ecological damage value was assessed. The information generated in this study will be useful in future studies evaluating marine ecological compensation based on environmental risk analysis.

China's Global Shipping Connectivity:Internal and External Dynamics in the Contemporary Era(1890–2016)

China's global shipping connectivity had been somewhat overlooked as the bulk of related studies predominantly focused on the throughput volume of its own port cities. This article tackles such lacunae by providing a relational perspective based on the extraction of vessel movement archives from the Lloyd's List corpus. Two complementary analyses are proposed: long-term dynamics with all ships included(1890–2008) and medium-term dynamics focusing on container flows(1978–2016). Each analysis examines China's maritime connectivity in various ways and on different spatial scales, from the global to the local, in terms of concentration, vulnerability, and expansion. The main results underline the influence of technological, economic, and political factors on the changing distribution of connectivity internally and externally. In particular, China has managed to reduce its dependence upon external transit hubs, to increase the internal connectivity of its own port system, and to strengthen its dominance towards an increasing number of foreign nodes and trade partners through the maritime network.

Risk management modeling and its application in maritime safety

Quantified risk assessment(QRA) needs mathematicization of risk theory.However,attention has been paid almost exclusively to applications of assessment methods,which has led to neglect of research into fundamental theories,such as the relationships among risk,safety,danger,and so on.In order to solve this problem,as a first step,fundamental theoretical relationships about risk and risk management were analyzed for this paper in the light of mathematics,and then illustrated with some charts.Second,man-machine-environment-management(MMEM) theory was introduced into risk theory to analyze some properties of risk.On the basis of this,a three-dimensional model of risk management was established that includes:a goal dimension;a management dimension;an operation dimension.This goal management operation(GMO) model was explained and then emphasis was laid on the discussion of the risk flowchart(operation dimension),which lays the groundwork for further study of risk management and qualitative and quantitative assessment.Next,the relationship between Formal Safety Assessment(FSA) and Risk Management was researched.This revealed that the FSA method,which the international maritime organization(IMO) is actively spreading,comes from Risk Management theory.Finally,conclusion were made about how to apply this risk management method to concrete fields efficiently and conveniently,as well as areas where further research is required.

Application of Risk Probability Evaluation Method to Offshore Platform Construction

Offshore project risk concerns many influence factors with complex relationship, and traditional methods cannot be used for the evaluation on risk probability. To deal with this problem, a new method was developed by the combination of improved technique for order preference by similarity ideal solution method, analytical hierarchy process method and the network response surface method. The risk probability was calculated by adopting network response surface analysis based on the state variable of a known event and its degree of membership.This quantification method was applied to an offshore platform project, Bonan oil and gas field project in Bohai Bay in June 2004.There were 7 sub-projects and each includes 4 risk factors.The values of 28 risk factors, ranging from 10^-6 to 10^-4, were achieved. This precision conforms to the international principle of as low as reasonably practically.The evaluation indicates that the values of comprehensive level of construction group and ability of technical personnel on the spot are relatively high among all risk factors, so these two factors should be paid more attention to in offshore platform construction.

Risk Assessment of Nitrogen Discharge from a Coastal Watershed

Probabilistic risk assessment （PRA） uses probability theory to quantify the probability of occurrence of an event. In this study, PRA was conducted for the discharge of excess nitrogen （N） from an agricultural （Jiulong River） watershed in Southeast China. Using fault tree analysis, a type of PRA, the probability of occurrence of excess N discharge into the river during a runoff event was evaluated both qualitatively and quantitatively. Land use maps, soil maps, fertilizer use records, and expert opinions were used to determine probabilities of individual events within the fault tree and to calculate the overall probability of excess N discharge during a runoff event. Qualitative analysis showed that the risk of excess N discharge was mainly related to crop and livestock practices in the watershed. Proper management of tillage, fertilizer, and manure was necessary to control N releases. Quantitative assessment results indicated that alternative practices including reduction of fertilization, installation of vegetative strip buffer around the pig farms, and installation of more riparian buffers along the Jiulong River could reduce the likelihood of N discharge through runoff.

Report of Pontoniinae Shrimps (Crustacea: Decapoda) Collected by Joint Chinese-German Marine Biology Expeditions to Hainan Island, South China Sea. Ⅲ. Periclimenes

The present paper reports 12 species of genus Periclimenes, subfamily Pontoniinae, collected from Hainan Island, South China Sea, by the Joint Chinese-German Marine Biology Expeditions, in which, Periclimenes consobrinus and P. tenuipes are new records from Chinese waters, and Periclimenes amymone, P. holthuisi, P. soror, and P. toloensis are recorded for the first time from Hainan Island.

ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR THE BASE OF MARINE SPORTS IN THE 26TH SUMMER UNIVERSIADE IN SHENZHEN IN 2011

Based on the real-time wind direction and speed data from an automatic meteorological monitoring network in Shenzhen, the wind characteristics of Jue Diao Sha maritime area are analyzed. As indicated in the results, the wind speed of this area is higher than that over the land, the average wind speed is above 3 m/s and the probability for the maximum wind speed to drop below 20 m/s is above 90%. Moreover, the probability for the hourly swing angle of wind direction to become less than 50o is above 80%, suggesting that the wind conditions in the Jue Diao Sha area could meet the requirements of the sporting events. According to the numerical simulation, this area is the best selected site among three candidates. Furthermore, the characteristics of daily land and sea breezes are such that it is suggested the game will be best carried out from 1000 to 1700 Beijing Standard Time.

Compulsory Liability Insurance for Marine Drilling Platforms Pollution under Chinese Law

Compulsory liability insurance has widely existed in the field of marine insurance. However, marine drilling platforms have always been excluded from this system in China. In view of the special legal nature of oil pollution compulsory liability insurance for marine drilling platforms, this paper analyzes a number of issues related to oil pollution compulsory liability insurance, elaborates on the necessity for China to implement the system and makes some suggestions about the implementation of that.

Distribution of Dissolved Inorganic Phosphate in Nansha Islands Sea Area, Southern South China Sea

Based on the survey data from the program Multidisciplinary Expedition to Nansha Islands Sea Area, the distribution of dissolved inorganic phosphate ( PO43--P ) in the sea water of Nansha Islands Sea Area is comprehensively analyzed in this paper. The results show that PO43--P concentration in the sea water of southeastern Nansha Islands Sea Area is commonly higher than that in the other sea areas; the vertical distribution of PO43--P concentration varies inconspicuously in different seasons; the concentration of PO43--P increases with water depth and changes most greatly in the layer of 50 ～ 100 m. The diurnal variation of PO43--P concentration differs in different seasons and at different observation stations. The distribution and variation of PO43--P concentration result from the physical and biological processes together.

Input characteristics and risk analysis of ballast water from offshore entry ships in China

Large quantities of ballast water discharge from ocean going ships in sea ports of China is one of the important factorswhich cause the spread of aquatic nonindigenous harmful species isolated geographically by waters,the deteriorating environment of the near-shore water area and the frequent outbreaks of red tides.In this paper,the total amount of the ballast water input estimation model for entry ships in Chinese ports was established.The information of foreign trade shipping and the import and export goods released publicly by the State Department of Transportation and the State General Administration of Customs were investigated.And then,the input features and its ecological environment risk of ballast water in China's offshore entry ships from2007to2012were analyzed based on the established total input amounts of ballast water from entry ships to Chinese sea ports together with the ballast water input ratio of the five major port-groups in China.The results show that:the total ballast water input amounts from entry ships of the five major port-groups in China are extremely imbalanced.The most developed Yangtze River Delta in economy has the biggest total ballast water input amounts,103.61million tons in2012.The second is the Circum-Bohai Sea Region(73.66million tons)and the third is the Pearl River Delta(67.24million tons).The total ballast water input amounts of the northwest and the southwest coastal areas are less,only16.57and5.71million tons respectively.The large quantity of entry ships’ballast water discharge has been an enormous threat to ecological environment of our country's sea areas,especially to economically developed regions.

Report on Pontoniinae shrimps (Crustacea: Decapoda) collected by Joint Chinese-German Marine Biology Expeditions to Hainan Island, South China Sea Ⅱ. Harpiliopsis, Ischnopontonia, Jocaste, Palaemonella, Periclimenaeus, Periclimenella

The present paper reports 9 species of pontoniine shrimps collected from Hainan Island, South China Sea, by the Joint Chinese-German Marine Biology Expeditions, in which,Periclimenaeus arabicus(Calman, 1939) andPericlimenaeus hecate(Nobili, 1904) are recorded for the first time from Hainan Island.

Hazardous Events on the Black Sea Rivers, Their dynamics and Regulation

The historical, informational and literary sources regarding flooding have been studied. Based on the statistical processing of multiyear stationary observation data the river maximal discharge parameters are specified. According tendency of their dynamics the flooding strengthening has been revealed on rivers nourished by glaciers, on the contrary in other rivers they reduced, in some regions evaporation has been increased and desertifieation has been detected. For mitigation negative impacts of those processes the recommendations of prevention measures are drafted.

Study on the Seismic Fortification Criteria of Offshore Platforms in the Bohai Sea

This paper analyzes the seismicity and seismic risk distribution in the Bohai Sea. Based on the seismic design parameters of 46 platforms in the Bohai Sea, a statistic analysis is made on the ratios of the peak accelerations for different probability levels. In accordance with the two-stage design method, a scheme of two design seismic levels is proposed, and two fortification goals are established respectively for strength level earthquakes and ductility level earthquakes. Through analogy and comparison to the Chinese seismic code for buildings, it is proposed that the probability level for the strength and ductility level earthquakes takes return periods of 200a and 1000～2500a respectively, and we further expounded on its rationality. Finally, the fortification parameters in the sub-regions of Bohai Sea area are given in the light of seismic risk zonation and ground motion division. This article is a summary of experiences from many years of offshore platform seismic fortification work, and an exploratory study on the seismic fortification standards of offshore platforms in China, which may provide some references for the establishment of the standard.

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE ASSESSMENT OF METHODS FOR DISASTER-INDUCING RISKS BY TCs USING SAMPLE EVENTS OF TCs THAT AFFECTED SHANGHAI

Hazard factors, hazard-bearling objects, disaster-developing environment, and disaster-preventing capability play key roles in the formation of Tropical Cyclone （TC） disasters. Of all of these, the most important is the intensity of hazard factors （risk sources）. In this study, this intensity is uniformly defined by the probability of hazard factors; then a relationship is established between disaster risk intensity and hazard factors. The exceedance probability of various hazard factors, including frequency and timing, scope of wind and rain, and maximum wind and rain of impacting TC cases, are calculated using data from TCs that impacted Shanghai fi＇om 1959-2006. The relationship between disaster situation and risk probability of hazard factors is analyzed, and the indices and model of TC disaster assessment are established based on the results. The process maximum wind speed and maximum daily precipitation are very important in TC-related disaster formation in Shanghai. The results of disaster indices coordinate with the results of the assessment model, and both can show the extent of probability of a TC disaster. Tests using TC data in 2007 and 2008 show that disasters caused by TC Krosa （0716） would be more serious than those by TC Wipha （0713）, and that TC Fung Wong （0808） would have a weak impact. Real-life situations validate these results.

Development and Application of Oil-Spill Risk Assessment Model for Offshore Pipeline

To the potential oil-spill risk caused by offshore pipeline more attention has been paid after the Dalian oil spill incident from oil-pipeline explosion. Since then an issue about how to prevent and control the sudden oil-spill from the offshore pipeline has been raised. In this paper, we proposed an optimized model to analyze the main causes(probability) of spill and the consequence with the fuzzy comprehensive assessment model. Considering the complicated assessment process for oil-spill, the assessment factor system involving the spill probability and consequence was established based on the operative manual and statistic leakage/damage data of offshore pipeline in order to estimate the integrated spill risk score automatically. The evaluated factors of spill probability could be grouped into five aspects: corrosion, fatigue, national damage, third party, and operational fault; the consequence evaluated factors of spill included hazard of oil and impact-controlling capability. With some modifications based on experts' opinions, each of the evaluated factors in our work was developed with a relative weight and evaluation criterion. A test example for an offshore pipeline in the Bohai waters was described to show how the model can be used for an actual case in more detail. By using the oil-spill risk assessment model, it is easy to determine the risk level associated with the ongoing activity and management level and hence to take the risk mitigation action immediately.

Analysis of the necessity of Shanghai＇s long-term care insurance

The aging population of Shanghai is China one of the most serious city, is also one of the cities of the aging problem is prominent. As a result, the city＇s endowment pressure also with aging and aging aggravate gradually increased, especially the old man nursing problems become the main problem in society. Study abroad to establish a long term care insurance comprehensive factors, considering the feasibility of the long-term care insurance in Shanghai, alleviate the pressure of the pension, the construction of a harmonious society.