1 引言 国际科学理事会与世界气象组织和其它一些国际组织共同发起组织的大型科学计划——“全球能量与水循环试验(Global Energy and Water cycle EXperiment简称:GEWEX)”是本世纪末世界气候研究计划中的一个主要计划,是为研究气候异...1 引言 国际科学理事会与世界气象组织和其它一些国际组织共同发起组织的大型科学计划——“全球能量与水循环试验(Global Energy and Water cycle EXperiment简称:GEWEX)”是本世纪末世界气候研究计划中的一个主要计划,是为研究气候异常,进行长期预报和防灾减灾,保证粮食生产为目的而设立的世界性研究计划。该项始于1989年,预计到2005年完成的计划,在全球范围内共确定了德国波罗的海、美国密西西比河、亚洲、非洲和南美亚马逊河5大试验区,亚洲季风试验(GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment简称:GAME)计划是其中之一。展开更多
Rainfall and air temperature data from six meteorological stations above the Bengbu Sluice and hydrological and water resources evaluation data from the Bengbu Hydrological Station in the Huai River Basin from 1961 to...Rainfall and air temperature data from six meteorological stations above the Bengbu Sluice and hydrological and water resources evaluation data from the Bengbu Hydrological Station in the Huai River Basin from 1961 to 2008 are used to analyze the impact of changes in climatic factors on the amount of water resources in the Basin. There was a general trend of rise in its average annual air temperature, with the highest increase of 0.289℃/10a recorded at Bengbu in Anhui Province. Rising rainfall was mainly observed in the western part of the study area, while rainfall actually declined in the eastern part, i.e. the middle reaches of the Huai River. The Average rainfall in the study area was in a vaguely declining trend. In other words, the rainfall in the Basin is still much affected by natural fluctuations. On the whole, there was a trend of gradual decrease in the quantity of the Basin＇s water resources for the period under study. Water resources quantity is found to fall with decreasing rainfall and rising air temperature. Regression analysis is used to establish a mathematical model between water resources quantity and climatic factors （i.e. air temperature and rainfall） in order to explore the impact of climate change on water resources in the Basin. Moreover, various scenarios are set to quantitatively analyze the response of water resources to climate change. Sensitivity analysis shows that changes in rainfall have a much bigger impact on its water resources quantity than changes in its air temperature.展开更多
文摘1 引言 国际科学理事会与世界气象组织和其它一些国际组织共同发起组织的大型科学计划——“全球能量与水循环试验(Global Energy and Water cycle EXperiment简称:GEWEX)”是本世纪末世界气候研究计划中的一个主要计划,是为研究气候异常,进行长期预报和防灾减灾,保证粮食生产为目的而设立的世界性研究计划。该项始于1989年,预计到2005年完成的计划,在全球范围内共确定了德国波罗的海、美国密西西比河、亚洲、非洲和南美亚马逊河5大试验区,亚洲季风试验(GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment简称:GAME)计划是其中之一。
基金supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (Project Nos. 51079132 and 50679075)the Special Research Fund Project of the Chinese Ministry of Water Resources (Grant No. 200801001)+1 种基金the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (Grant No. 20094101110002)the National Key Scientific and Technological Project on Water Pollution Control and Treatment of China (Project No. 2009ZX07210-006)
文摘Rainfall and air temperature data from six meteorological stations above the Bengbu Sluice and hydrological and water resources evaluation data from the Bengbu Hydrological Station in the Huai River Basin from 1961 to 2008 are used to analyze the impact of changes in climatic factors on the amount of water resources in the Basin. There was a general trend of rise in its average annual air temperature, with the highest increase of 0.289℃/10a recorded at Bengbu in Anhui Province. Rising rainfall was mainly observed in the western part of the study area, while rainfall actually declined in the eastern part, i.e. the middle reaches of the Huai River. The Average rainfall in the study area was in a vaguely declining trend. In other words, the rainfall in the Basin is still much affected by natural fluctuations. On the whole, there was a trend of gradual decrease in the quantity of the Basin＇s water resources for the period under study. Water resources quantity is found to fall with decreasing rainfall and rising air temperature. Regression analysis is used to establish a mathematical model between water resources quantity and climatic factors （i.e. air temperature and rainfall） in order to explore the impact of climate change on water resources in the Basin. Moreover, various scenarios are set to quantitatively analyze the response of water resources to climate change. Sensitivity analysis shows that changes in rainfall have a much bigger impact on its water resources quantity than changes in its air temperature.
