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中国南海油气资源跨期开发最优路径与机制 被引量:1
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作者 刘静暖 杜威 《工业技术经济》 北大核心 2022年第6期153-160,共8页
受新冠肺炎疫情等多重因素影响,国际油气市场剧烈震荡,价格陡然升高,给我国油气进口带来巨大成本压力。跨期勘探开发南海油气资源,增加油气供给,是保障能源安全的重要途径。本文运用柯布-道格拉斯函数,建立1995~2019南海油气产能模型;... 受新冠肺炎疫情等多重因素影响,国际油气市场剧烈震荡,价格陡然升高,给我国油气进口带来巨大成本压力。跨期勘探开发南海油气资源,增加油气供给,是保障能源安全的重要途径。本文运用柯布-道格拉斯函数,建立1995~2019南海油气产能模型;将边界产能与实际产能对比分析发现,油气产能效率总体较高、每8年一个波动周期;随着时间推移,产能效率递减,说明北部近海油气已过峰值,未来增产的出路主要在南部远海深海;选择以满足南海经济圈(琼粤桂)油气需求为目标,构建了2020~2049油气开发跨期优化模型,带入7个一级指标,设计了5个约束机制。本文研究旨在促进南部海域油气开发零的突破,增加产能,弥补缺口,实现南海经济圈油气供求平衡。 展开更多
关键词 中国南 油气开发 深海远海 跨期模型 保障机制 柯布-道格拉斯模型
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Modeling Study of Seasonal Variation of the Pelagic-Benthic Ecosystem Characteristics of the Bohai Sea 被引量:2
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作者 ZHANG Xinling WU Zengmao +3 位作者 LI Jie YU Guangyao ZHANG Zhinan GAO Shanhong 《Journal of Ocean University of China》 SCIE CAS 2006年第1期21-28,共8页
Based on experiment data of the Sino-German comprehensive investigations in the Bohai Sea in 1998 and 1999, a simple coupled pelagic-benthic ecosystem multi-box model is used to simulate the ecosystem seasonal variati... Based on experiment data of the Sino-German comprehensive investigations in the Bohai Sea in 1998 and 1999, a simple coupled pelagic-benthic ecosystem multi-box model is used to simulate the ecosystem seasonal variation. The pelagic sub-model consists of seven state variables: phytoplankton, zooplankton, TIN, TIP, DOC, POC and dissolved oxygen (DO). The benthic sub-model includes macro-benthos, meiobenthos, bacteria, detritus, TIN and TIP in the sediment. Besides the effects of solar radiation, water temperature and the nutrient from sea bottom exudation, land-based inputs are considered. The impact of the advection terms between the boxes is also considered. Meanwhile, the effects of the micro- bial-loop are introduced with a simple parameterization. The seasonal variations and the horizontal distributions of the ecosystem state variables of the Bohai Sea are simulated. Compared with the observations, the results of the multi-box model are reasonable. The modeled results show that about 13% of the photosynthesis primary production goes to the main food loop, 20% transfers to the benthic domain, 44% is consumed by the respiration of phytoplankton, and the rest goes to DOC. Model results also show the importance of the microbial food loop in the ecosystem of the Bohai Sea, and its contribution to the annual zooplankton production can be 60%-64%. 展开更多
关键词 multi-box ecosystem model Bohai Sea pelagic-benthic coupling ecosystem seasonal variation simulation microbial food web impact
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