PM_(2.5) forecasting technology can provide a scientific and effective way to assist environmental governance and protect public health.To forecast PM_(2.5),an enhanced hybrid ensemble deep learning model is proposed ...PM_(2.5) forecasting technology can provide a scientific and effective way to assist environmental governance and protect public health.To forecast PM_(2.5),an enhanced hybrid ensemble deep learning model is proposed in this research.The whole framework of the proposed model can be generalized as follows:the original PM_(2.5) series is decomposed into 8 sub-series with different frequency characteristics by variational mode decomposition(VMD);the long short-term memory(LSTM)network,echo state network(ESN),and temporal convolutional network(TCN)are applied for parallel forecasting for 8 different frequency PM_(2.5) sub-series;the gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT)is applied to assemble and reconstruct the forecasting results of LSTM,ESN and TCN.By comparing the forecasting data of the models over 3 PM_(2.5) series collected from Shenyang,Changsha and Shenzhen,the conclusions can be drawn that GBDT is a more effective method to integrate the forecasting result than traditional heuristic algorithms;MAE values of the proposed model on 3 PM_(2.5) series are 1.587,1.718 and 1.327μg/m3,respectively and the proposed model achieves more accurate results for all experiments than sixteen alternative forecasting models which contain three state-of-the-art models.展开更多
基金Project(52072412)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2019CX005)supported by the Innovation Driven Project of the Central South University,China。
文摘PM_(2.5) forecasting technology can provide a scientific and effective way to assist environmental governance and protect public health.To forecast PM_(2.5),an enhanced hybrid ensemble deep learning model is proposed in this research.The whole framework of the proposed model can be generalized as follows:the original PM_(2.5) series is decomposed into 8 sub-series with different frequency characteristics by variational mode decomposition(VMD);the long short-term memory(LSTM)network,echo state network(ESN),and temporal convolutional network(TCN)are applied for parallel forecasting for 8 different frequency PM_(2.5) sub-series;the gradient boosting decision tree(GBDT)is applied to assemble and reconstruct the forecasting results of LSTM,ESN and TCN.By comparing the forecasting data of the models over 3 PM_(2.5) series collected from Shenyang,Changsha and Shenzhen,the conclusions can be drawn that GBDT is a more effective method to integrate the forecasting result than traditional heuristic algorithms;MAE values of the proposed model on 3 PM_(2.5) series are 1.587,1.718 and 1.327μg/m3,respectively and the proposed model achieves more accurate results for all experiments than sixteen alternative forecasting models which contain three state-of-the-art models.
