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能源领域碳系统结构优化和碳排放预测方法与实例验证 被引量:1
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作者 罗必雄 张毅 +2 位作者 张力 张武军 程远林 《煤炭学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第7期2657-2667,共11页
“碳达峰”和“碳中和”是事关全人类的一场社会性变革,如何准确的预测和降低碳排放是这场变革胜利的关键。为准确预测能源领域的碳排放量,采用多目标优化算法,以预测过程中的电力装机结构和能源消费结构成本最小化、结构更加清洁化以... “碳达峰”和“碳中和”是事关全人类的一场社会性变革,如何准确的预测和降低碳排放是这场变革胜利的关键。为准确预测能源领域的碳排放量,采用多目标优化算法,以预测过程中的电力装机结构和能源消费结构成本最小化、结构更加清洁化以及碳排放量最小化为目标,基于电力平衡、电量平衡和调峰平衡等能源安全考虑,采用一种混合测算模型对碳排放量预测过程中电力装机结构和能源消费结构进行优化,从而根据优化后的能源消费结构得到基于电力装机成本和能源消费结构成本最优的最小碳排放值。整个预测过程主要分成3个部分,首先根据LMDI分解方法解析能源领域碳排放影响因素,可得GDP对碳排放的正向驱动效应明显,能源消费强度和产业结构对碳排放的负向驱动效应明显;其次,对碳系统结构进行初步优化、基于初步优化后的结果预测初始碳排放值;最后,基于过程的合理性和准确性,给出了一种模型评估方法,采用关键指标验证方法来对预测过程中的电能占终端能源消费占比、非化石能源消费占比和碳强度累计下降率等约束性指标进行反馈验证,经关键指标验证和多重反馈调整,最终得到满足多目标函数约束和各约束性指标的碳排放值。采用中部某省的实际数据对优化和预测过程的可行性和可靠性进行了验证,结果表明,仅在达峰场景下,该省能满足达峰目标以及通过3个关键指标验证。 展开更多
关键词 能源领域 碳排放预测 混合测算模型 结构优化 模型评估
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Energy-absorption forecast of thin-walled structure by GA-BP hybrid algorithm 被引量:7
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作者 谢素超 周辉 +1 位作者 赵俊杰 章易程 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2013年第4期1122-1128,共7页
In order to analyze the influence rule of experimental parameters on the energy-absorption characteristics and effectively forecast energy-absorption characteristic of thin-walled structure, the forecast model of GA-B... In order to analyze the influence rule of experimental parameters on the energy-absorption characteristics and effectively forecast energy-absorption characteristic of thin-walled structure, the forecast model of GA-BP hybrid algorithm was presented by uniting respective applicability of back-propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) and genetic algorithm (GA). The detailed process was as follows. Firstly, the GA trained the best weights and thresholds as the initial values of BP-ANN to initialize the neural network. Then, the BP-ANN after initialization was trained until the errors converged to the required precision. Finally, the network model, which met the requirements after being examined by the test samples, was applied to energy-absorption forecast of thin-walled cylindrical structure impacting. After example analysis, the GA-BP network model was trained until getting the desired network error only by 46 steps, while the single BP-ANN model achieved the same network error by 992 steps, which obviously shows that the GA-BP hybrid algorithm has faster convergence rate. The average relative forecast error (ARE) of the SEA predictive results obtained by GA-BP hybrid algorithm is 1.543%, while the ARE of the SEA predictive results obtained by BP-ANN is 2.950%, which clearly indicates that the forecast precision of the GA-BP hybrid algorithm is higher than that of the BP-ANN. 展开更多
关键词 thin-walled structure GA-BP hybrid algorithm IMPACT energy-absorption characteristic FORECAST
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A robust system for real-time pedestrian detection and tracking 被引量:2
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作者 李琦 邵春福 赵熠 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第4期1643-1653,共11页
A real-time pedestrian detection and tracking system using a single video camera was developed to monitor pedestrians. This system contained six modules: video flow capture, pre-processing, movement detection, shadow ... A real-time pedestrian detection and tracking system using a single video camera was developed to monitor pedestrians. This system contained six modules: video flow capture, pre-processing, movement detection, shadow removal, tracking, and object classification. The Gaussian mixture model was utilized to extract the moving object from an image sequence segmented by the mean-shift technique in the pre-processing module. Shadow removal was used to alleviate the negative impact of the shadow to the detected objects. A model-free method was adopted to identify pedestrians. The maximum and minimum integration methods were developed to integrate multiple cues into the mean-shift algorithm and the initial tracking iteration with the competent integrated probability distribution map for object tracking. A simple but effective algorithm was proposed to handle full occlusion cases. The system was tested using real traffic videos from different sites. The results of the test confirm that the system is reliable and has an overall accuracy of over 85%. 展开更多
关键词 image processing technique pedestrian detection tracking video camera
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