An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited i...An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.展开更多
The hybrid slip model used to generate a finite fault model for near-field ground motion estimation and seismic hazard assessment was improved to express the uncertainty of the source form of a future earthquake.In th...The hybrid slip model used to generate a finite fault model for near-field ground motion estimation and seismic hazard assessment was improved to express the uncertainty of the source form of a future earthquake.In this process, source parameters were treated as normal random variables, and the Fortran code of hybrid slip model was modified by adding a random number generator so that the code could generate many finite fault models with different dimensions and slip distributions for a given magnitude.Furth...展开更多
Recovering waste heat from industrial processes is bene ficial in order to reduce the primary energy demands and heat pumps can be used to this purpose.Absorption heat pumps are energy-saving and environment-friendly ...Recovering waste heat from industrial processes is bene ficial in order to reduce the primary energy demands and heat pumps can be used to this purpose.Absorption heat pumps are energy-saving and environment-friendly because use working fluids that do not cause ozone depletion and can reduce the global warming emissions.The hybrid heat pump processes combine the conventional vapor-compression and the absorption heat pump cycles.Studies about the simulations and modeling of hybrid heat pumps are few in literature.In this research a mathematical model for single effect absorption and hybrid heat pump is carried out with Chem Cad? 6.0.1.LiBr–H_2O is used as working fluid while electrolytic NRTL and electrolytes latent heat are used as thermodynamic model due to the better results.Binary parameters of activity coef ficients are regressed from experimental vapor pressure data while default constants are used for the solubility expressions.A design of heat pumps is developed and a new modeling of generator is analyzed.The coef ficient of performance of absorption heat pump and hybrid heat pump is equal to 0.7 and 0.83 respectively.For absorption heat pump a sensitivity analysis is carried out to evaluate the effect of temperature and pressure generator,the concentration of Li–Br solution on coef ficient of performance,cooling capacity and working fluid temperature.For hybrid heat pump,the different coef ficients of performance,the primary energy ratio,the generator heat,and the compressor power are analyzed for different values of compressor proportion.Results show that comparing the two systems the hybrid pump allows to save more primary energy,costs and carbon dioxide emissions with respect to absorption heat pump with the increasing of compressor proportion parameter.Future researches should focus on the construction of this heat pumps integrated in chemical processes as a biogas plant or trigeneration systems.展开更多
The undulator is the key component in the compact THz radiation source based on FEL.By matching the adjustable period magnetic field of the undulator with the optical resonance cavity,the passing electron beam will ge...The undulator is the key component in the compact THz radiation source based on FEL.By matching the adjustable period magnetic field of the undulator with the optical resonance cavity,the passing electron beam will generate coherent radiation with gain,and the radiation power required by THz source can be achieved finally. Compared with the pure permanent magnet type,the hybrid type undulator can decrease the field errors caused by non-homogeneous magnetization of magnetic blocks,and provide higher magnetic field.The conceptual design of a hybrid undulator used for THz radiation source is introduced.We use the FEM code OPERA/TOSCA to simulate 3D magnetic field of the undulator.After optimizing the end structure of the hybrid undulator,the first field integrals is controlled within 0.01Gs.m,and the deviation of the electron beam is less than 0.02mm.展开更多
基金Project(51606225) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2016JJ2144) supported by Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(502221703) supported by Graduate Independent Explorative Innovation Foundation of Central South University,China
文摘An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50778058 and No. 90715038)National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China (No. 2006BAC13B02)Major State Basic Research Development Program of China ("973" Program, No. 2008CB425802)
文摘The hybrid slip model used to generate a finite fault model for near-field ground motion estimation and seismic hazard assessment was improved to express the uncertainty of the source form of a future earthquake.In this process, source parameters were treated as normal random variables, and the Fortran code of hybrid slip model was modified by adding a random number generator so that the code could generate many finite fault models with different dimensions and slip distributions for a given magnitude.Furth...
文摘Recovering waste heat from industrial processes is bene ficial in order to reduce the primary energy demands and heat pumps can be used to this purpose.Absorption heat pumps are energy-saving and environment-friendly because use working fluids that do not cause ozone depletion and can reduce the global warming emissions.The hybrid heat pump processes combine the conventional vapor-compression and the absorption heat pump cycles.Studies about the simulations and modeling of hybrid heat pumps are few in literature.In this research a mathematical model for single effect absorption and hybrid heat pump is carried out with Chem Cad? 6.0.1.LiBr–H_2O is used as working fluid while electrolytic NRTL and electrolytes latent heat are used as thermodynamic model due to the better results.Binary parameters of activity coef ficients are regressed from experimental vapor pressure data while default constants are used for the solubility expressions.A design of heat pumps is developed and a new modeling of generator is analyzed.The coef ficient of performance of absorption heat pump and hybrid heat pump is equal to 0.7 and 0.83 respectively.For absorption heat pump a sensitivity analysis is carried out to evaluate the effect of temperature and pressure generator,the concentration of Li–Br solution on coef ficient of performance,cooling capacity and working fluid temperature.For hybrid heat pump,the different coef ficients of performance,the primary energy ratio,the generator heat,and the compressor power are analyzed for different values of compressor proportion.Results show that comparing the two systems the hybrid pump allows to save more primary energy,costs and carbon dioxide emissions with respect to absorption heat pump with the increasing of compressor proportion parameter.Future researches should focus on the construction of this heat pumps integrated in chemical processes as a biogas plant or trigeneration systems.
文摘The undulator is the key component in the compact THz radiation source based on FEL.By matching the adjustable period magnetic field of the undulator with the optical resonance cavity,the passing electron beam will generate coherent radiation with gain,and the radiation power required by THz source can be achieved finally. Compared with the pure permanent magnet type,the hybrid type undulator can decrease the field errors caused by non-homogeneous magnetization of magnetic blocks,and provide higher magnetic field.The conceptual design of a hybrid undulator used for THz radiation source is introduced.We use the FEM code OPERA/TOSCA to simulate 3D magnetic field of the undulator.After optimizing the end structure of the hybrid undulator,the first field integrals is controlled within 0.01Gs.m,and the deviation of the electron beam is less than 0.02mm.
