This study compared basic warming patterns among three typical warm periods — the midHolocene（MH）, Medieval Warm Period（MWP）, and the twentieth century warming（20CW） — and carried out a comprehensive heat budg...This study compared basic warming patterns among three typical warm periods — the midHolocene（MH）, Medieval Warm Period（MWP）, and the twentieth century warming（20CW） — and carried out a comprehensive heat budget analysis using four experiments simulated by the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System model, Spectral Version 2（FGOALS-s2）. The model simulates similar spatial warming patterns in all three warm periods, e.g. stronger warming appears in the high latitudes. However, changes in surface air temperature（SAT） over the tropical regions are different： a significant warming occurs in the 20 CW and MWP but a significant cooling in the MH. The heat budget analysis suggested that SAT changes are mainly induced by the heat flux. In the MH, the insolation and positive snow and ice feedback are responsible for the warming in the Southern Ocean but the wind anomalies and decreased downward longwave radiation（DLR） induce the cooling in the tropics. In the 20 CW, the decreased shortwave radiation and increased sea surface temperature dependency of evaporation dampen the warming in the tropics. In the MWP, the shortwave radiation induces the Southern Ocean warming, but the DLR and wind anomalies warm the SAT in the tropics. The simulated ocean temperature and ocean heat content anomalies are different in the upper ocean（above 1500 m）, which are mainly induced by the wind stress changes, but similar in the deep ocean in all three warm periods.展开更多
To detect the impacts of urban surface expansion on surface air temperature at 2-m（SAT） in Shanghai, China, nested numerical integrations based on satellite-derived urban data between the 1980 s and 2010 s were perf...To detect the impacts of urban surface expansion on surface air temperature at 2-m（SAT） in Shanghai, China, nested numerical integrations based on satellite-derived urban data between the 1980 s and 2010 s were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model. Urban surface expansion induced an annual-averaged warming of 0.31 °C from 1980 to 2016 across the whole of Shanghai, showing the greatest intensity between 2010 and 2016. The values were 0.36, 0.78, and 0.75 °C over grids that were classified as urban in both time periods（U2 U）, landuse grids that changed from non-urban to urban（N2 U）, and urban areas（including U2 U and N2 U）, respectively, and revealed weak warming over the inner-ring areas because the urban surfaces had been there since the 1980 s, whereas warming areas were coincident with the outward expansion of the urban surface. Meanwhile, marked seasonal variations could be detected, which were greater in spring and summer but less in autumn and winter. The approximately homogenously distributed SAT maximum（weaker） and heterogeneously SAT minimum（stronger） contributed to the decreased diurnal temperature range. Regional warming induced by urban surface expansion was approximately 0.12 °C per decade, which accounted for 19% of the overall warming across the whole of Shanghai. The values were 0.11 °C per decade and 0.39 °C per decade over U2 U and N2 U, which accounted for approximately 17% and 42% of the overall warming, respectively, and resulted in approximately 41% of the overall warming over urban areas.展开更多
Here the authors critically review the IPCC＇s claim that global warming is ＂very likely＂ caused by human activity： such a description underestimates the likelihood of the warming being due to this mechanism. Next ...Here the authors critically review the IPCC＇s claim that global warming is ＂very likely＂ caused by human activity： such a description underestimates the likelihood of the warming being due to this mechanism. Next examined are known alternative ＂natural＂ mechanisms which could give rise to the warming if, despite many claims, the man-made explanation was false because of compensation effects （greenhouse gases versus aerosol effects）. Also, a number of difficulties, as yet unresolved, in the human-induced warming explanation are considered.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41406045 and 41376002]National Basic Research Program of China[grant number 2013CB956204]‘Strategic Priority Research Program on Climate Change:Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues’ of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number XDA05110302]
文摘This study compared basic warming patterns among three typical warm periods — the midHolocene（MH）, Medieval Warm Period（MWP）, and the twentieth century warming（20CW） — and carried out a comprehensive heat budget analysis using four experiments simulated by the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System model, Spectral Version 2（FGOALS-s2）. The model simulates similar spatial warming patterns in all three warm periods, e.g. stronger warming appears in the high latitudes. However, changes in surface air temperature（SAT） over the tropical regions are different： a significant warming occurs in the 20 CW and MWP but a significant cooling in the MH. The heat budget analysis suggested that SAT changes are mainly induced by the heat flux. In the MH, the insolation and positive snow and ice feedback are responsible for the warming in the Southern Ocean but the wind anomalies and decreased downward longwave radiation（DLR） induce the cooling in the tropics. In the 20 CW, the decreased shortwave radiation and increased sea surface temperature dependency of evaporation dampen the warming in the tropics. In the MWP, the shortwave radiation induces the Southern Ocean warming, but the DLR and wind anomalies warm the SAT in the tropics. The simulated ocean temperature and ocean heat content anomalies are different in the upper ocean（above 1500 m）, which are mainly induced by the wind stress changes, but similar in the deep ocean in all three warm periods.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41775087]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41675149]+2 种基金National Key R&D Program of China[grant number 2016YFA0600403]the Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Program[grant number XDA05090206]the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climatic Change
文摘To detect the impacts of urban surface expansion on surface air temperature at 2-m（SAT） in Shanghai, China, nested numerical integrations based on satellite-derived urban data between the 1980 s and 2010 s were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model. Urban surface expansion induced an annual-averaged warming of 0.31 °C from 1980 to 2016 across the whole of Shanghai, showing the greatest intensity between 2010 and 2016. The values were 0.36, 0.78, and 0.75 °C over grids that were classified as urban in both time periods（U2 U）, landuse grids that changed from non-urban to urban（N2 U）, and urban areas（including U2 U and N2 U）, respectively, and revealed weak warming over the inner-ring areas because the urban surfaces had been there since the 1980 s, whereas warming areas were coincident with the outward expansion of the urban surface. Meanwhile, marked seasonal variations could be detected, which were greater in spring and summer but less in autumn and winter. The approximately homogenously distributed SAT maximum（weaker） and heterogeneously SAT minimum（stronger） contributed to the decreased diurnal temperature range. Regional warming induced by urban surface expansion was approximately 0.12 °C per decade, which accounted for 19% of the overall warming across the whole of Shanghai. The values were 0.11 °C per decade and 0.39 °C per decade over U2 U and N2 U, which accounted for approximately 17% and 42% of the overall warming, respectively, and resulted in approximately 41% of the overall warming over urban areas.
文摘Here the authors critically review the IPCC＇s claim that global warming is ＂very likely＂ caused by human activity： such a description underestimates the likelihood of the warming being due to this mechanism. Next examined are known alternative ＂natural＂ mechanisms which could give rise to the warming if, despite many claims, the man-made explanation was false because of compensation effects （greenhouse gases versus aerosol effects）. Also, a number of difficulties, as yet unresolved, in the human-induced warming explanation are considered.
