A New Method for Predicting the Decadal Component of Global SST

A simple approach that considers both internal decadal variability and the effect of anthropogenic forcing is developed to predict the decadal components of global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for the three decades 2011-2040. The internal decadal component is derived by harmonic wave expansion analyses based on the quasiperiodic evolution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), as obtained from observational SST datasets. Furthermore, the external decadal component induced by anthropogenic forcing is assessed with a second-order fit based on the ensemble of projected SSTs in the experiments with multiple coupled climate models associated with the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) under the Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Reports on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1B. A validation for the years from 2002 to 2010 based on a comparison of the predicted and the observed SST and their spatial correlation, as well as the root mean square error (RMSE), suggests that the approach is reasonable overall. In addition, the predicted results over the 50°S-50°N global band, the Indian Ocean, the western Pacific Ocean, the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and the North and the South Atlantic Ocean are presented.

A New Approach for Classifying Two Types of El Nio Events

In recent decades, the typical E1 Nifio events with the warmest SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific have become less common, and a different of E1 Nifio with the wannest SSTs in the central the east and west by cooler Pacific, which is flanked on SSTs, has become more frequent. The more recent type of E1 Nifio was referred to as central Pacific E1 Nifio, warm pool E1 Nifio, or dateline E1 Nifio, or the E1 Nifio Modoki. Central Pacific E1 Nifio links to a different tropical-to-extratropical teleconnection and exerts different impacts on climate, and several clas- sification approaches have been proposed. In this study, a new classification approach is proposed, which is based on the linear combination （sum or difference） of the two leading Empirical Orthogonal Functions （EOFs） of tropi- cal Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA）, and the typical E1 Nifio index （TENI） and the central E1 Nifio index （CENI） are able to be derived by projecting the observed SSTA onto these combinations. This classification not only reflects the characteristics of non-orthogonality between the two types of events but also yields one period peaking at approximate two to seven years. In particular, this classification can distin- guish the different impacts of the two types of events on rainfall in the following summer in East China. The typi- cal E1 Nifio events tend to induce intensified rainfall in the Yangtze River valley, whereas the central Pacific El Nifio tends to induce intensified rainfall in the Huaihe River valley. Thus, the present approach may be appropriate for studying the impact of different types of E1 Nifio on the East Asian climate.

Evaluation and fusion of SST data from MTSAT and TMI in East China Sea, Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea in 2008

Two typical satellite sea surface temperature (SST) datasets, from the Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI), were evaluated for the East China Sea, Yellow Sea, and Bohai Sea throughout 2008. Most monthly-mean availabilities of MTSAT are higher than those of TMI, whereas the seasonal variation of the latter is less than that of the former. The analysis on the one-year data shows that the annual mean availability of MTSAT (61%) is greater than that of TMI (56%). This is mainly because MTSAT is a geostationary satellite, which achieves longer observation than the sun-synchronous TMI. The daily availability of TMI (28%-75%) is more constant than that of MTSAT (9%-93%). The signal of infrared sensors on MTSAT is easily disturbed on cloudy days. In contrast, the TMI microwave sensor can obtain information through clouds. Based on in-situ SSTs, the SST accuracy of TMI is superior to that of MTSAT. In 2008, the root mean square (RMS) error of TMI and MTSAT were 0.77 K and 0.84 K, respectively. The annual mean biases were 0.14 K (TMI) and -0.31 K (MTSAT). To attain a high availability of SSTs, we propose a fusion method to merge both SSTs. The annual mean availability of fusion SSTs increases 17% compared to MTSAT. In addition, the availabilities of the fusion SSTs become more constant. The annual mean RMS and bias of fusion SSTs (0.78 K and -0.06 K, respectively) are better than those of MTSAT (0.84 K and -0.31 K).

Intercomparison of different physics schemes in the WRF model over the Asian summer monsoon region

Enhancing the ability of the WRF model in simulating a large area covering the West Pacific Ocean, China's Mainland, and the East Indian Ocean is very important to improve prediction of the East Asian monsoon climate. The objective of this study is to identify a reasonable configuration of physical parameterization schemes to simulate the precipitation and temperature in this large area. The Mellor-Yamada-Janjic （MYJ） and Yonsei University （YSU） PBL schemes, the WSM3 and WSM5 microphysics schemes, and the Betts-Miller-Janjic （BMJ） and Tiedtke cumulus schemes are compared through simulation of the regional climate of summer 2008. All cases exhibit a similar spatial distribution of temperature as observed, and the spatial correlation coefficients are all higher than 0.95. The cases combining MY J, WSM3/WSM5, and BMJ have the smallest biases of temperature. The choice of PBL scheme has a significant effect on precipitation in such a large area. The cases with MYJ reproduce a better distribution of rain belts, while YSU strongly overestimates the precipitation intensity. The precipitation simulated using WSM3 is similar to that using WSM5. The BMJ cumulus scheme combined with the MYJ PBL scheme has a smaller bias of precipitation. However, the Tiedtke scheme reproduces the precipitation pattern better, especially over the ITCZ.

Assessing the Quality of Regional Ocean Reanalysis Data from ENSO Signals

The quality of regional ocean reanalysis data for ＂the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean （AIPO）＂ has been assessed from the perspective of ENSO-related ocean signals. The results derived from the AIPO reanalysis, including SST, sea surface height （SSH）, and subsurface ocean temperature and currents, are compared with those of Hadley Center Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature （HadlSST） data set and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） reanalysis data. Both the spatial pattern and the characteristics of evolution of the ENSO-related ocean temperature anomalies are well reproduced by the AIPO reanalysis data. The physical processes proposed to explain the life cycle of ENSO, including the delayed oscillator mechanism, recharge-discharge mechanism, and the zonal advection feedback, are reasonably represented in this dataset. However, the westward Rossby wave signal in 1992 is not obvious in the AIPO data, and the magnitude of the heat content anomalies is different from that of the SODA data. The reason for the discrepancies may lie in the different mod- els and methods for data assimilation and differences in wind stress forcing. The results demonstrate the high reliability of the AIPO reanalysis data in describing ENSO signals, implying its potential application value in ENSO- related studies.

Long-term temperature variation of the Southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass from 1976 to 2006

This paper discusses the long-term temperature variation of the Southern Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass(SYSCWM)and examines those factors that infl uence the SYSCWM,based on hydrographic datasets of the China National Standard Section and the Korea Oceanographic Data Center.Surface air temperature,meridional wind speed,and sea surface temperature data are used to describe the seasonal changes.Mean temperature of the two centers of the SYSCWM had diff erent long-term trends.The temperature of the center in the west of the SYSCWM was rising whereas that of the center in the east was falling.Mean temperature of the western center was related to warm water intrusion of the Yellow Sea Warm Current,the winter meridional wind,and the winter air temperature.Summer process played a primary role in the cooling trend of temperature in the eastern center.A decreasing trend of salinity in the eastern half of the SYSCWM showed that warm water intrusion from the south might weaken,as could the SYSCWM circulation.Weakened circulation provided less horizontal heat input to the eastern half of the SYSCWM.Less lateral heat input may have led to the decreasing trend in temperature of the eastern center of the SYSCWM.Further,warmer sea surface temperatures and less heat input in the deep layers intensifi ed the thermocline of the eastern SYSCWM.A stronger thermocline had less heat fl ux input from upper layers to this half of the SYSCWM.Stronger thermocline and weakened heat input can be seen as two main causes of the cooling temperature trend of the eastern center of the SYSCWM.

Numerical investigation of wake-collapse internal waves generated by a submerged moving body

The state-of-the-art OpenFOAM technology is used to develop a numerical model that can be devoted to numerically investigating wake-collapse internal waves generated by a submerged moving body.The model incorporates body geometry,propeller forcing,and stratification magnitude of seawater.The generation mechanism and wave properties are discussed based on model results.It was found that the generation of the wave and its properties depend greatly on the body speed.Only when that speed exceeds some critical value,between 1.5 and 4.5 m/s,can the moving body generate wake-collapse internal waves,and with increases of this speed,the time of generation advances and wave amplitude increases.The generated wake-collapse internal waves are confirmed to have characteristics of the second baroclinic mode.As the body speed increases,wave amplitude and length increase and its waveform tends to take on a regular sinusoidal shape.For three linearly temperature-stratified profiles examined,the weaker the stratification,the stronger the wake-collapse internal wave.

Coral Bleaching in Arrecifes de Cozumel National Park after Tropical Storm Rina in October 2011

Extensive bleaching of Montastrea annularis spp. group and several other scleractinian taxa occurred on the reefs within the Arrecifes de Cozumel National Park of Cozumel, Mexico, after the passage of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Rina. We conducted six drift dives at five different dive sites （-13 h of scuba diving） and photographed a variety of reefs scenes at depths of 10-28 m. Bleaching was noted at depths of 10-40 m in a variety of scleractinian species, including M. annularis species group, especially M. faveolata and Siderastrea siderea. Considering that local dive guides had not observed bleaching prior to the storm and the sea surface temperature did not exceed the local bleaching threshold, it is probable that the extensive rainfall associated with Hurricane/Tropical Storm Rina lowered salinity sufficiently via subsurface freshwater springs to cause bleaching in susceptible species. This suggests the need to monitor not only subsurface sea temperature but also subsurface salinity in localities where freshwater springs occur adjacent to or within coral reefs.

Coral Reef Recovery Status in South Andaman Islands after the Bleaching Event 2010

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are one of the Union Territories of India, located in the eastern part of the Bay of Bengal. In 2010 summer, the increment in sea surface water temperature （up to 34℃） resulted in the bleaching of about 74% to 77% of corals in the South Andaman. During this event, coral species such as Acropora cerealis, A. humilis, Montipora sp., Favia paIlida, Diploastrea sp., Goniopora sp. Fungia concinna, Gardineroseries sp., Porites sp., Favites abdita and Lobophyllia robusta were severely affected. This study is to assess the recovery status of the reef ecosystem by estimating the percentage of Live Coral cover, Bleached coral cover, Dead coral with algae, Rubble, Sandy fiat, Algal assemblage and other associated organisms, The sedimentation rate （mg cm^-2 d^-1） and coral coverage （%） were assessed during this study period. The average sedimentation rate was ranged between 0.27 and 0.89 mg cm^-2 d^1. The observed post bleaching recovery of coral cover was 21.1% at Port Blair Bay and 13.29% at Havelock Island. The mortality rate of coral cover due to this bleaching was estimated as 2.05% at Port Blair Bay and 9.82% at Havelock Island. Once the sea water temperature resumed back to the normal condition, most of the corals were found recovered.

Effects of Elevated Air Temperatures on Soil Thermal and Hydrologic Processes in the Active Layer in an Alpine Meadow Ecosystem of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

In this study,effects of elevated air temperatures on thermal and hydrologic process of the shallow soil in the active layer were investigated. Open-top chambers(OTCs)were utilized to increase air temperatures 1-2℃ in OTC-1 and 3-5℃ in OTC-2 in the alpine meadow ecosystem on the Qinghai- Tibetan Plateau.Results show that the annual air temperatures under OTC-1 and OTC-2 were 1.21℃ and 3.62℃ higher than the Control,respectively.The entirely-frozen period of shallow soil in the active layer was shortened and the fully thawed period was prolonged with temperature increase.The maximum penetration depth and duration of the negative isotherm during the entirely-frozen period decreased, and soil freezing was retarded in the local scope of the soil profile when temperature increased.Meanwhile, the positive isotherm during the fully-thawed period increased,and the soil thawing was accelerated.Soil moisture under different manipulations decreased with the temperature increase at the same depth. During the early freezing period and the early fully- thawed period,the maximum soil moisture under the Control manipulation was at 0.2 m deep,whereas under OTC-1 and OTC-2 manipulations,the maximum soil moisture were at 0.4-0.5 m deep. These results indicate that elevated temperatures led to a decrease of the moisture in the surface soil.The coupled relationship between soil temperature and moisture was significantly affected by the temperature increase.During the freezing and thawing processes, the soil temperature and moisture under different manipulations fit the regression model given by the equationθV=a/{1+exp[b(TS+c)]}+d.

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature on COSMO Forecasts of a Medicane over the Western Mediterranean Sea

The paper describes and analyzes the sensitivity of an operational atmospheric model to different SST （sea surface temperature） estimates. The model＇s sensitivity has been analyzed in a Medicane （Mediterranean hurricane） test case. Numerical simulations have been performed using the COSMO （consortium for small-scale modeling） atmospheric model, in the COSMO-ME configuration. The model results show that the model is capable of capturing the position, timing and intensity of the cyclone. Sensitivity experiments have been carried out using different SSTs surface boundary conditions for the COSMO forecasts. Four different experiments have been carried out： the first two using SST fields obtained from the OSTIA （operational sea surface temperature and sea ice analysis） system, while the other two using the SST analyses and forecasts from MFS （Mediterranean Forecasting System, Tonani et al., 2015; Pinardi and Coppini, 2010）. The different boundary conditions determine differences in the trajectory, pressure minimum and wind intensity of the simulated Medicane. The sensitivity experiments showed that a colder than real SST field determines a weakening of the minimum pressure at the vortex center. MFS SST analyses and forecasts allow the COSMO model to simulate more realistic minimum pressure values, trajectories and wind speeds. It was found that MFS SST forecast, as surface boundary conditions for COSMO-ME runs, determines a significant improvement, compared to ASCAT observations, in terms of wind intensity forecast as well as cyclone dimension and location.

Effects of CeO_2 Coating on Oxidation Behavior of TP304H Steel in High-Temperature Water Vapor

Oxidation behaviors of TP304H steel with electrophoresis deposited CeO2 coating in water vapor were studied at 610℃～770℃ for 65 h. The results showed that CeO2 coating reduced effectively the oxidation rate of TP304H. Analysis with SEM and EDS showed the structure of oxide scale turned from multi-layer to mono-layer and oxide scale with high Cr content formed on the surface of CeO2 coating while inner oxidation disappeared. Based on test results and CeO2characters that Ce ion can vary between Ce4+ and Ce3+ under oxygen-rich and oxygen-poor environment, it is concluded that CeO2 coating acts as a barrier to prevent oxygen inner diffusion and the partial oxygen pressure of CeO2 coating-substrate interface is limited. Cr first diffuses outward across CeO2 coating and forms oxide scale on the surface, which delays formation of Fe oxide.

Ice-Shielding Models for Self-Preservation of Gas Hydrates

The self-preservation of methane hydrate is a key process in its engineering applications because the hydrate can survive for a significant period under atmospheric pressure and moderate temperature. Some experiments have predicted that the shielding ice formed on the hydrate surface after initial dissociation of the hydrate plays an important role in the self-preservation effect. We propose ice-shielding models of gas hydrates to investigate the dissociation rates quantitatively, including the self-preservation process, at temperatures below the ice-melting point and at atmospheric pressure. Three general models are constructed for two temperature ranges The rate-determining process for the lower temperature range is hydrate dissociation, and those for the higher range are gas diffusion through ice or hydrate layers, which depend on the thickness of the shielding-ice layer. Our models suggest that the extent of self-preservation depends on temperature, original hydrate size, and guest substances, which can explain the experimental results.

Application of waterborne acrylic emulsions in coated controlled release fertilizer using reacted layer technology

Waterborne acrylic emulsions modified with organic siloxanes and aziridine crosslinker were synthesized and applied as coating of controlled release fertilizer. The free films were characterized and the nutrient release profiles of the coated fertilizers were determined. The results show that methyl silicone oil and methylsilanolate sodium could not improve water resistance performance and glass transition temperature Tgof coatings, while the firmness is enhanced. Aziridine crosslinker improves the water resistance performance, firmness and Tg. Incorporation of methyl silicone oil and aziridine crosslinker gives an excellent aqueous acrylic emulsion for coated controlled release fertilizer, with the 30-day cumulative nutrient release reduced to 16% and an estimated nutrient release duration over 190 days. Therefore, this waterborne coating is promising to meet the requirements for controlled release of nutrient and environmental protection.

A Preliminary Study on Mechanisms of Well Water Temperature Responses Based on the Modes of Stress Loading

Based on the studies of the predecessors, and contrasting the modes of stress loading with water level and water temperature response characteristics of a well-aquifer system, this paper draws a preliminary conclusion on the mechanisms of water temperature responses in a well caused by three modes of stress loading, i.e. gas escape, heat dispersion and cold water penetration mechanisms for elastic seismic wave stress loading; the fracture seepage mechanism for seismic wave stress loading and the hydrodynamic mechanism for earth tide stress loading and stress-dissipative heat mechanism for long period slow stress loading in the earthquake preparation stage. This paper illustrates the typical observation examples for each mode of stress loading and makes a preliminary study on their mechanisms.

抽水蓄能电站水库水温简化模型与应用

抽水蓄能电站由于其特殊的运行方式,水库水温分布规律与常规电站水库不同.目前有关研究不多,而建立合适的抽水蓄能电站水库水温分布模型,对于确定大坝温度边界条件具有重要意义.采用类比库途径,根据类比库水温实测资料和呼和浩特抽水蓄能电站的特点,对朱伯芳法经验公式进行改进,提出可用于预测严寒地区抽水蓄能电站水库水温分布的简化模型.用简化模型对呼和浩特抽水蓄能电站下水库水温分布进行预测,并将结果作为温度边界条件,计算大坝稳定温度场.结果表明在水气交替范围内,大坝表面温度均匀分布,大坝全断面稳定温度均在10℃以下,符合严寒地区大坝稳定温度场分布规律.

鲫鱼与水温

鲫鱼是淡水变温性鱼,栖息水域底层,体温随水域温度不同而变化。水温的高低,是直接影响鱼体新陈代谢强弱的重要因素。鲫鱼的活动、栖息、摄食、成长、繁殖诸方面,都与水温休戚相关。弄清这一问题,对选窝下钩具有实在意义。

Achieving superior low temperature and high strain rate superplasticity in submerged friction stir welded Ti-6Al-4V alloy

The superplastic forming of Ti alloy welds has great application prospects in producing integrated components. However, the nugget zone（NZ） of the Ti alloy welds,produced by fusion welding or conventional friction stir welding（FSW）, consists of lamellar micro structure, which exhibits either low superplasticity or high superplastic temperautre and low strain rate. As a result, the NZ plays a leading role in hindering the superplastic forming of the whole welds.In this study, submerged friction stir welding（SFSW） was conducted in Ti-6Al-4 V alloy for the first time, and a defectfree weld with the NZ consisting of a strip microstructure was obtained. The NZ exhibited a low-temperature superplasticity at 600℃, which was the lowest superplastic temperature ever reported in the Ti alloy welds. Besides, at 800℃, the NZ showed high strain rate（3×10^（-2） s^（-1）） superplasticity and a largest elongation of 615% at 1×10^（-3） s^（-1）. Compared to conventional FSW joints, the NZ of SFSW joint exhibited a much lower flow stress and a decrease in optimal superplastic temperature by 100℃. This is mainly attributed to the easy globularization of the strip microstructure, enhancing the ability of grain/phase boundary sliding.

Sea surface temperature evolution in the western South China Sea since MIS 12 as evidenced by planktonic foraminiferal assemblages and Globigerinoides ruber Mg/Ca ratio

Based on the detailed planktonic foraminifera faunal count and Globigerinoides ruber Mg/Ca ratio analysis of Core MD05-2901,we reconstructed the longest Mg/Ca sea surface temperature(SST) sequence of the upwelling area off Vietnam in the western South China Sea(SCS).Ocean environment,especially the SST variation,over the last 450 ka is discussed in this study.SST variation has typical glacial/interglacial alternations from 23.03°C to 29.93°C with a glacial/interglacial difference of 4.8°C on average.SST during the interglacial periods fluctuates significantly,up to 5.6°C,which is larger than the average glacial/interglacial difference.SST variation during the glacial periods is much smaller.Spectrum analysis shows that SST change dominates on the typical Milankovitch cycles,such as 112,40.7 and 23.6 ka.Evident leading of SST variation against the δ 18 O can be observed during the Terminations 1,4,and 5,which is confirmed by their cross-spectrum analysis on these cycles.MD05-2901 is the first core in the South China Sea that has multi-SST records,such as SST Mg/Ca,k' 37 U-SST and planktonic foraminiferal fauna-based SST.SSTs from different methods can be correlated with each other in glacial/interglacial time scale,whereas SST Mg/Ca records abrupt climate change events more clearly.SST Mg/Ca at MD05-2901 since MIS 5 is 0.6°C lower than that of the southern SCS on average,but equivalent to or even 2°C lower than that of the northern SCS during some interglacial period.The SST character of MD05-2901 reflects less influence of latitude,but an important role of the regional upwelling driven by the eastern Asian summer monsoon,and suggests a stronger upwelling during the interglacial periods in the western SCS.

Decadal change of East Asian summer tropospheric temperature meridional gradient around the early 1990s

During 1979–2004, the East Asian summer precipitation has experienced another significant decadal shift around the early 1990 s. Based on three radiosonde temperature datasets and four reanalysis datasets, this paper examines the decadal change of the East Asian summer tropospheric temperature around the early 1990 s. The results show that the meridional gradient of layer mean upper tropospheric temperature for 200–500 h Pa(here after UTT, UTT is upper tropospheric temperature) also underwent an obvious decadal decrease around 1992. The tropospheric temperature south to 35°N becomes decadal cooling, centered along the Yangtze River Valley, while the tropospheric temperature north to 35°N shows a decadal warming, centered in Northwest China-Mongolia. JRA-25 reanalysis is better than the other reanalysis datasets in revealing this decadal change. This decadal shift of East Asian summer UTT may be ascribed to the decadal change of the ENSO period from low-frequency oscillation(4–6 yr) to quasi-biennial oscillation since 1992. It behaves as an increase of ENSO developing events and a reduction of ENSO decaying events. It leads to stronger forcing of ENSO developing summer and weaker forcing of ENSO decaying summer, leading to the dominant role of monopole cooling mode of East Asian UTT after 1992, in contrast to the dominant role of dipole mode of East Asia UTT before 1992. The summer UTT difference between 1993–2004 and 1979–1992 shows a "South cooling-North Warming" pattern, and thereby contributes to the interdecadal decrease of East Asian summer UTT meridional gradient around 1992.