The Lancang–Mekong River basin(LMRB) is under increasing threat from global warming. In this paper, the projection of future climate in the LMRB is explored by focusing on the temperature change and extreme temperatu...The Lancang–Mekong River basin(LMRB) is under increasing threat from global warming. In this paper, the projection of future climate in the LMRB is explored by focusing on the temperature change and extreme temperature events. First, the authors evaluate the bias of temperature simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Then, correction is made for the simulation by comparing with observation based on the non-parametric quantile mapping using robust empirical quantiles(RQUANT) method. Furthermore, using the corrected model results, the future climate projections of temperature and extreme temperature events in this basin during 2016–35, 2046–65, and 2080–99 are analyzed. The study shows that RQUANT can effectively reduce the bias of simulation results. After correction, the simulation can capture the spatial features and trends of mean temperature over the LMRB, as well as the extreme temperature events. Besides, it can reproduce the spatial and temporal distributions of the major modes. In the future, the temperature will keep increasing, and the warming in the southern basin will be more intense in the wet season than the dry season. The number of extreme high-temperature days exhibits an increasing trend, while the number of extreme low-temperature days shows a decreasing trend. Based on empirical orthogonal function analysis, the dominant feature of temperature over this basin shows a consistent change. The second mode shows a seesaw pattern.展开更多
Changes in the sediment load of a river can have important impacts on river channel evolution,nutrient fluxes,aquatic ecology and delta erosion and sedimentation,and the possibility of changes in the sediment load of ...Changes in the sediment load of a river can have important impacts on river channel evolution,nutrient fluxes,aquatic ecology and delta erosion and sedimentation,and the possibility of changes in the sediment load of the Lancang-Mekong River has attracted increasing concern in recent years.Existing studies present conflicting findings regarding the nature and magnitude of recent changes in the sediment load of the Lancang-Meking River and the authors have attempted to assemble the most reliable data on annual sediment loads for the period 1965-2003,to assess recent trends in the sediment load of the river.The changes in annual sediment load at 7 stations on the river are analyzed.Important sediment contributing areas are found in the reaches between Gajiu and Yunjinghong,Chiang Saen and Luang Prabang and downstream of Nong Khai.The sediment load increased at Gajiu,Yunjinghong and Chiang Saen over the period 1985-1992 because of serious soil erosion caused by the expansion of cultivation,the replacement of natural forest by plantations and land disturbance associated with hydropower dam construction.A marked reduction in sediment load occurred at Gajiu after the impoundment of the Manwan Hydropower dam on the Lancang River,but this reduction was not evident downstream at Yunjinghong and the stations further downstream.Significant increases in sediment load appeared at Mukdahan and Khong Chiam.These contrasting patterns of change reflect the influence of sediment contributions from the intervening catchment areas and channel systems as well as storage and remobilization of sediment from the channel system and the impact of hydraulic works such as irrigation systems.The long term mean annual sediment load of the Mekong River at its mouth is estimated to be ca.145×106ta-1,which is lower than previously reported values and it seems likely that this will be reduced in the foreseeable future.展开更多
基金This work was supported by the External Cooperation Program of Bureau of International Co-operation,Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number GJHZ1729]the Key Program of the Natural Science Foundation of Yunnan Province of China[grant number 2016FA041].
文摘The Lancang–Mekong River basin(LMRB) is under increasing threat from global warming. In this paper, the projection of future climate in the LMRB is explored by focusing on the temperature change and extreme temperature events. First, the authors evaluate the bias of temperature simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Then, correction is made for the simulation by comparing with observation based on the non-parametric quantile mapping using robust empirical quantiles(RQUANT) method. Furthermore, using the corrected model results, the future climate projections of temperature and extreme temperature events in this basin during 2016–35, 2046–65, and 2080–99 are analyzed. The study shows that RQUANT can effectively reduce the bias of simulation results. After correction, the simulation can capture the spatial features and trends of mean temperature over the LMRB, as well as the extreme temperature events. Besides, it can reproduce the spatial and temporal distributions of the major modes. In the future, the temperature will keep increasing, and the warming in the southern basin will be more intense in the wet season than the dry season. The number of extreme high-temperature days exhibits an increasing trend, while the number of extreme low-temperature days shows a decreasing trend. Based on empirical orthogonal function analysis, the dominant feature of temperature over this basin shows a consistent change. The second mode shows a seesaw pattern.
基金supported by the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (Grant No. Shaji-1230)the 12th Five-Year National Science and Technology Support Program of China (Grant No.2012BAB02B01)the University of Exeter and the University of New Brunswick (Canada Research Chairs Program)
文摘Changes in the sediment load of a river can have important impacts on river channel evolution,nutrient fluxes,aquatic ecology and delta erosion and sedimentation,and the possibility of changes in the sediment load of the Lancang-Mekong River has attracted increasing concern in recent years.Existing studies present conflicting findings regarding the nature and magnitude of recent changes in the sediment load of the Lancang-Meking River and the authors have attempted to assemble the most reliable data on annual sediment loads for the period 1965-2003,to assess recent trends in the sediment load of the river.The changes in annual sediment load at 7 stations on the river are analyzed.Important sediment contributing areas are found in the reaches between Gajiu and Yunjinghong,Chiang Saen and Luang Prabang and downstream of Nong Khai.The sediment load increased at Gajiu,Yunjinghong and Chiang Saen over the period 1985-1992 because of serious soil erosion caused by the expansion of cultivation,the replacement of natural forest by plantations and land disturbance associated with hydropower dam construction.A marked reduction in sediment load occurred at Gajiu after the impoundment of the Manwan Hydropower dam on the Lancang River,but this reduction was not evident downstream at Yunjinghong and the stations further downstream.Significant increases in sediment load appeared at Mukdahan and Khong Chiam.These contrasting patterns of change reflect the influence of sediment contributions from the intervening catchment areas and channel systems as well as storage and remobilization of sediment from the channel system and the impact of hydraulic works such as irrigation systems.The long term mean annual sediment load of the Mekong River at its mouth is estimated to be ca.145×106ta-1,which is lower than previously reported values and it seems likely that this will be reduced in the foreseeable future.
