This paper aimed to highlight the effects of conflict in Mongolia on trade policy and openness, by estimating the trade flows with neighbor countries （China and Russia）. Fourteen years＇ （2000-2013） data of Mongol...This paper aimed to highlight the effects of conflict in Mongolia on trade policy and openness, by estimating the trade flows with neighbor countries （China and Russia）. Fourteen years＇ （2000-2013） data of Mongolian imports and exports were collected and gone through principal component analysis （PCA） and empirical analysis for grouping various trades with China and Russia. The empirical analysis identified the determining factors of Mongolian trade flow and openness with China and Russia. Empirical analysis evidenced that Mongolian trade and openness policy raised bilateral trade between China and Russia, leaving a great influence on economic size. Two main questions represented as empirically tested by each sample country. How did Mongolian trade policy and openness influence trade flows between China and Russia and economic growth of Mongolia？ Did Mongolian trade policy and the bilateral trade with China and Russia increase on trade openness？ Finally, the study focused on the forecasts from 2016 to 2018 to examine Mongolian trade flows with China and Russia using ordinary least squares method and autoregressive-moving-average （ARMA） model. China-Mongolia-Russia trade flows will continue to dominate during the forecasted period. As shown by the structure of export and import, goods with China and Russia influenced the mutual trade amount. Moreover, China and Russia traded to continue with Mongolia for goods in long run. Trade policy and openness, the major contributor in Mongolian economy, are significantly playing roles in trade and economy.展开更多
文摘This paper aimed to highlight the effects of conflict in Mongolia on trade policy and openness, by estimating the trade flows with neighbor countries （China and Russia）. Fourteen years＇ （2000-2013） data of Mongolian imports and exports were collected and gone through principal component analysis （PCA） and empirical analysis for grouping various trades with China and Russia. The empirical analysis identified the determining factors of Mongolian trade flow and openness with China and Russia. Empirical analysis evidenced that Mongolian trade and openness policy raised bilateral trade between China and Russia, leaving a great influence on economic size. Two main questions represented as empirically tested by each sample country. How did Mongolian trade policy and openness influence trade flows between China and Russia and economic growth of Mongolia？ Did Mongolian trade policy and the bilateral trade with China and Russia increase on trade openness？ Finally, the study focused on the forecasts from 2016 to 2018 to examine Mongolian trade flows with China and Russia using ordinary least squares method and autoregressive-moving-average （ARMA） model. China-Mongolia-Russia trade flows will continue to dominate during the forecasted period. As shown by the structure of export and import, goods with China and Russia influenced the mutual trade amount. Moreover, China and Russia traded to continue with Mongolia for goods in long run. Trade policy and openness, the major contributor in Mongolian economy, are significantly playing roles in trade and economy.
