Tephra fallout is an important type of hazard caused by explosive volcanic eruption, and numerical simulation has become a fast and effective approach to assess the dispersion and deposition of tephra fallout. Accordi...Tephra fallout is an important type of hazard caused by explosive volcanic eruption, and numerical simulation has become a fast and effective approach to assess the dispersion and deposition of tephra fallout. According to the improved 2D diffusion model of Suzuki （ 1983）, we edited a tephra diffusion program that can run in the Windows system. Based on previous data, we simulated the diffusion scope of the Jinlongdingzi volcanic eruption, which is the latest eruption in the Longgang volcanic cluster. The simulated results are in good agreement with the results from measurement in situ, indicating that the model is reliable and the parameters used in the model are suitable. By using wind profiles of ten years, 7, 021 simulations under different wind profiles were carried out, and then probabilistic hazard maps of tephra fallout were constructed for tephra thickness thresholds, lcm and 0.5cm. This study can provide an important scientific basis for volcanic hazard analysis, risk mitigation plans and countermeasures in the Longgang volcanic area.展开更多
基金unded by the National Natural Science Foundation Project(40972209)the Special Projects for China Earthquake Research(201208005)
文摘Tephra fallout is an important type of hazard caused by explosive volcanic eruption, and numerical simulation has become a fast and effective approach to assess the dispersion and deposition of tephra fallout. According to the improved 2D diffusion model of Suzuki （ 1983）, we edited a tephra diffusion program that can run in the Windows system. Based on previous data, we simulated the diffusion scope of the Jinlongdingzi volcanic eruption, which is the latest eruption in the Longgang volcanic cluster. The simulated results are in good agreement with the results from measurement in situ, indicating that the model is reliable and the parameters used in the model are suitable. By using wind profiles of ten years, 7, 021 simulations under different wind profiles were carried out, and then probabilistic hazard maps of tephra fallout were constructed for tephra thickness thresholds, lcm and 0.5cm. This study can provide an important scientific basis for volcanic hazard analysis, risk mitigation plans and countermeasures in the Longgang volcanic area.
