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灰色预测理论在火灾损失预测中的应用 被引量:14
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作者 徐志胜 白国强 冯凯 《湘潭矿业学院学报》 2004年第1期24-26,共3页
简述了灰色理论中灾变预测的特点和其建模过程,并将其应用于湖南省火灾损失预测之中,并利用关联度分析检验了所建火灾损失预测模型的精度,经检验模型的分辨率比较高,同时预测值和原始值的曲线图也反映了这一点,因此模型的预测结果比较可... 简述了灰色理论中灾变预测的特点和其建模过程,并将其应用于湖南省火灾损失预测之中,并利用关联度分析检验了所建火灾损失预测模型的精度,经检验模型的分辨率比较高,同时预测值和原始值的曲线图也反映了这一点,因此模型的预测结果比较可靠,对于消防部门火灾预防有一定帮助.图1,表2,参8. 展开更多
关键词 火灾损失预测 灰色理论 灾变预测 预测模型 灰色关联度分析
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Economic Appraisal of Damages Caused by Forest Fires Adopting a New Prevention and Suppression System: The Case of Rhodes Island, Greece
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作者 A.S. Christodoulou N. Theodoridis K. Papastergiou 《Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering》 2011年第4期475-482,共8页
Rhodes is one of the most forested islands of Greece, in the Prefecture of Dodecanese, in southeast of Aegean Sea. The island in recent times has been struck by big and devastating fires. After 1993, the local Forest ... Rhodes is one of the most forested islands of Greece, in the Prefecture of Dodecanese, in southeast of Aegean Sea. The island in recent times has been struck by big and devastating fires. After 1993, the local Forest Service and the local political authority have adopted a new prevention and suppression system relied on the fast fire detection and suppression at its initial stages. By the present research, comparing the results of 1993-2006 (a time span when the above method was applied) with the results of the immediately precedent equal time of 1978-1992, was made certain that the firefighting system applied after 1993 had very good results irrespective from the primary agency in charge of extinguishing the forest fires. Among others, it was made clear that, during the period that this method was applied, a much less area was burnt per year than the period before the application in spite of the fact that in the same period (1993-2006) there has been a significant increase of forest fires. It is also estimated that the economic damage occurred in the first period (1978-1992) on average was 12.4 times per year higher compared to the second period (1993-2006). 展开更多
关键词 Forest fires fire detection economic impacts Rhodes island-Greece.
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