[Objective] The research aimed to study the yield prediction model of processing tomato based on the grey system theory.[Method] The variation trend of processing tomato yield was studied by using the grey system theo...[Objective] The research aimed to study the yield prediction model of processing tomato based on the grey system theory.[Method] The variation trend of processing tomato yield was studied by using the grey system theory,and GM（1,1）grey model of processing tomato yield prediction was established.The processing tomato yield in Xinjiang during 2001-2009 was as the example to carry out the instance analysis.[Result] The model had the high forecast accuracy and strong generalization ability,and was reliable for the prediction of recent processing tomato yield.[Conclusion] The research provided the reference for the macro-control of tomato industry,the processing and storage of tomato in Xinjiang.展开更多
Ship motion,with six degrees of freedom,is a complex stochastic process.Sea wind and waves are the primary influencing factors.Prediction of ship motion is significant for ship navigation.To eliminate errors,a path pr...Ship motion,with six degrees of freedom,is a complex stochastic process.Sea wind and waves are the primary influencing factors.Prediction of ship motion is significant for ship navigation.To eliminate errors,a path prediction model incorporating ship pitching was developed using the Gray topological method,after analyzing ship pitching motions.With the help of simple introduction to Gray system theory,we selected a group of threshold values.Based on an analysis of ship pitch angle sequences over 40 second intervals,a Grey metabolism GM(1,1) model was established according to the time-series which every threshold corresponded to.Forecasting future ship motion with the GM(1,1) model allowed drawing of the forecast curve with effective forecasting points.The precision of the test results show that the model is accurate,and the forecast results are reliable.展开更多
The generally used methods of forecasting coal requirement quantity include the analogy method, the outside push method and the cause effect analysis method. However, the precision of forecasting results using these m...The generally used methods of forecasting coal requirement quantity include the analogy method, the outside push method and the cause effect analysis method. However, the precision of forecasting results using these methods is lower. This paper uses the grey system theory, and sets up grey forecasting model GM (1, 3) to coal requirement quantity. The forecasting result for the Chinese coal requirement quantity coincides with the actual values, and this shows that the model is reliable. Finally, this model are used to forecast Chinese coal requirement quantity in the future ten years.展开更多
The advancement of grey system theory provides an effective analytic tool for power system load fore-cast. All kinds of presently available grey forecast models can be well used to deal with the short-term load fore-c...The advancement of grey system theory provides an effective analytic tool for power system load fore-cast. All kinds of presently available grey forecast models can be well used to deal with the short-term load fore-cast. However, they make big errors for medium or long-term load forecasts, and the load that does not satisfythe approximate exponential increasing law in particular. A novel grey forecast model that is capable of distin-guishing the increasing law of load is adopted to forecast electric power consumption (EPC) of Shanghai. Theresults show that this model can be used to greatly improve the forecast precision of EPC for a secondary industryor the whole society.展开更多
In order to minimize the harm caused by the instability of a planing craft, a motion prediction model is essential. This paper analyzed the feasibility of using an MGM（1,N） model in grey system theory to predict pla...In order to minimize the harm caused by the instability of a planing craft, a motion prediction model is essential. This paper analyzed the feasibility of using an MGM（1,N） model in grey system theory to predict planing craft motion and carried out the numerical simulation experiment. According to the characteristics of planing craft motion, a recurrence formula was proposed of the parameter matrix of an MGMfl,N） model. Using this formula, data can be updated in real-time without increasing computational complexity significantly. The results of numerical simulation show that using an MGM（1,N） model to predict planing motion is feasible and useful for prediction. So the method proposed in this study can reflect the planing craft motion mechanism successfully, and has rational and effective functions of forecasting and analyzing trends.展开更多
In order to prevent and control the water inflow of mines, this paper built a new initial GM（1, 1） model to torecast the maximum water inflow according to the principle of new information. The effect of the new init...In order to prevent and control the water inflow of mines, this paper built a new initial GM（1, 1） model to torecast the maximum water inflow according to the principle of new information. The effect of the new initial GM（1, 1） model is not ideal by the concrete example. Then according to the principle of making the sum of the squares of the difference between the calculated sequences and the original sequences, an optimized GM（1, I） model was established. The result shows that this method is a new prediction method which can predict the maximum water inflow accurately. It not only conforms to the guide- line of prevention primarily, but also provides reference standards to managers on making prevention measures.展开更多
基金Supported by National Natural Science Fund Item(61064005)~~
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to study the yield prediction model of processing tomato based on the grey system theory.[Method] The variation trend of processing tomato yield was studied by using the grey system theory,and GM（1,1）grey model of processing tomato yield prediction was established.The processing tomato yield in Xinjiang during 2001-2009 was as the example to carry out the instance analysis.[Result] The model had the high forecast accuracy and strong generalization ability,and was reliable for the prediction of recent processing tomato yield.[Conclusion] The research provided the reference for the macro-control of tomato industry,the processing and storage of tomato in Xinjiang.
文摘Ship motion,with six degrees of freedom,is a complex stochastic process.Sea wind and waves are the primary influencing factors.Prediction of ship motion is significant for ship navigation.To eliminate errors,a path prediction model incorporating ship pitching was developed using the Gray topological method,after analyzing ship pitching motions.With the help of simple introduction to Gray system theory,we selected a group of threshold values.Based on an analysis of ship pitch angle sequences over 40 second intervals,a Grey metabolism GM(1,1) model was established according to the time-series which every threshold corresponded to.Forecasting future ship motion with the GM(1,1) model allowed drawing of the forecast curve with effective forecasting points.The precision of the test results show that the model is accurate,and the forecast results are reliable.
文摘The generally used methods of forecasting coal requirement quantity include the analogy method, the outside push method and the cause effect analysis method. However, the precision of forecasting results using these methods is lower. This paper uses the grey system theory, and sets up grey forecasting model GM (1, 3) to coal requirement quantity. The forecasting result for the Chinese coal requirement quantity coincides with the actual values, and this shows that the model is reliable. Finally, this model are used to forecast Chinese coal requirement quantity in the future ten years.
文摘The advancement of grey system theory provides an effective analytic tool for power system load fore-cast. All kinds of presently available grey forecast models can be well used to deal with the short-term load fore-cast. However, they make big errors for medium or long-term load forecasts, and the load that does not satisfythe approximate exponential increasing law in particular. A novel grey forecast model that is capable of distin-guishing the increasing law of load is adopted to forecast electric power consumption (EPC) of Shanghai. Theresults show that this model can be used to greatly improve the forecast precision of EPC for a secondary industryor the whole society.
基金Supported by the Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle, Harbin Engineering Universitythe Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (HEUCFL20101113)
文摘In order to minimize the harm caused by the instability of a planing craft, a motion prediction model is essential. This paper analyzed the feasibility of using an MGM（1,N） model in grey system theory to predict planing craft motion and carried out the numerical simulation experiment. According to the characteristics of planing craft motion, a recurrence formula was proposed of the parameter matrix of an MGMfl,N） model. Using this formula, data can be updated in real-time without increasing computational complexity significantly. The results of numerical simulation show that using an MGM（1,N） model to predict planing motion is feasible and useful for prediction. So the method proposed in this study can reflect the planing craft motion mechanism successfully, and has rational and effective functions of forecasting and analyzing trends.
文摘In order to prevent and control the water inflow of mines, this paper built a new initial GM（1, 1） model to torecast the maximum water inflow according to the principle of new information. The effect of the new initial GM（1, 1） model is not ideal by the concrete example. Then according to the principle of making the sum of the squares of the difference between the calculated sequences and the original sequences, an optimized GM（1, I） model was established. The result shows that this method is a new prediction method which can predict the maximum water inflow accurately. It not only conforms to the guide- line of prevention primarily, but also provides reference standards to managers on making prevention measures.
