[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the dynamic changes of vegetation cover and its prediction method. [Method] The NDVl was used as data source to perform the spatial overlay analysis on the vegetation covera...[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the dynamic changes of vegetation cover and its prediction method. [Method] The NDVl was used as data source to perform the spatial overlay analysis on the vegetation coverage changes of the study area in different time period under the GIS platform, with the aim to reveal the spatial distribution rules of the vegetation cover in Eastern Jilin Province during the recent 10 years. The Markov Model and Grey System G （1, 1） theory model were used to predict the vegetation cover change trend in Eastern Jilin Province. [Result] The vegetation cover increased a little, but staying stable in general. The regions with great changes were mainly around the lake and river. The prediction results of Markov Model and Grey System G （1, 1） theory model were consistent with the observed measurement. [Conclusion] This study provided referential basis for the effective protection of the vegetation coverage in mountainous forest, and important reference value for the scientific decision-making on the forest construction planning in Jilin Province as well as in China and sustainable development of social economy.展开更多
Flood is one kind of unexpected and the most common natural disasters, which is affected by many factors and has complex mechanism. At home and abroad, there is still no mature theory and method used for the long-term...Flood is one kind of unexpected and the most common natural disasters, which is affected by many factors and has complex mechanism. At home and abroad, there is still no mature theory and method used for the long-term forecast of natural precipitation at present. In the present paper the disadvantages of grey GM (1, 1) and Markov chain are ana- lyzed, and Grey-Markov forecast theory about flood is put forward and then the modifying model is developed by making prediction of Chaohu Lake basin. Hydrological law was conducted based on the theoretical forecasts by grey system GM (1, 1) forecast model with improved Markov chain. The above method contained Stat-analysis, embodying scientific approach, precise forecast and its reliable results.展开更多
Because the signals of global positioning system （GPS） satellites are susceptible to obstructions in urban environment with many high buildings around, the number of GPS useful satellites is usually less than six. I...Because the signals of global positioning system （GPS） satellites are susceptible to obstructions in urban environment with many high buildings around, the number of GPS useful satellites is usually less than six. In this case, the receiver autonomous integrity monitoring （RAIM） method earmot exclude faulty satellite. In order to improve the performance of RAIM method and obtain the reliable positioning results with five satellites, the series of receiver clock bias （RCB） is regarded as one useful satellite and used to aid RAIM method. From the point of nonlinear series, a grey-Markov model for predicting the RCB series based on grey theory and Markov chain is presented. And then the model is used for aiding RAIM method in order to exclude faulty satellite. Experimental results demonstrate that the prediction model is fit for predicting the RCB series, and with the clock-based RAIM method the faulty satellite can be correctly excluded and the positioning precision of GPS receiver can be improved for the case where there are only five useful satellites.展开更多
To eliminate the grey bias and improve ant-jamming performance of the standard grey-Markov forecasting model,a forecasting model based on wavelet packet decomposition and fuzzy grey Markov(FG-Markov)is proposed consid...To eliminate the grey bias and improve ant-jamming performance of the standard grey-Markov forecasting model,a forecasting model based on wavelet packet decomposition and fuzzy grey Markov(FG-Markov)is proposed considering the characteristics of randomness and nonlinearility of freight volume forecasting.Firstly,based on the data analysis ability of wavelet packet to non-stationary random signal,wavelet packet decomposition is used to improve the analysis ability of data signal by decomposing historical freight volume data into wavelet packet component.On this basis,FG-Markov chain is proposed to obtain the transfer probability matrix of wavelet packet coefficients by introducing fuzzy grey variables,and forecast the freight volume by reconstructing wavelet packet coefficients.Finally,an example of Lanzhou railroad hub is carried out in order to testify the validity and applicability of this forecasting model.Compared with neural network model and other forecasting models,the proposed forecasting model can improve the forecasting accuracy under the same conditions.The forecasting accuracy of wavelet packet decomposition and FG-Markov is not only greater than that of any other single forecasting models,but also superior to that of other traditional combinational forecasting models,which can meet the actual requirements of freight volume forecasting.展开更多
Compared with traditional real-time forecasting,this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model(GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area.The GMM combines the Grey System and Marko...Compared with traditional real-time forecasting,this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model(GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area.The GMM combines the Grey System and Markov theory into a higher precision model.The GMM takes advantage of the Grey System to predict the trend values and uses the Markov theory to forecast fluctuation values,and thus gives forecast results involving two aspects of information.The procedure for forecasting annul maximum water levels with the GMM contains five main steps:1) establish the GM(1,1) model based on the data series;2) estimate the trend values;3) establish a Markov Model based on relative error series;4) modify the relative errors caused in step 2,and then obtain the relative errors of the second order estimation;5) compare the results with measured data and estimate the accuracy.The historical water level records(from 1960 to 1992) at Yuqiao Hydrological Station in the estuary area of the Haihe River near Tianjin,China are utilized to calibrate and verify the proposed model according to the above steps.Every 25 years' data are regarded as a hydro-sequence.Eight groups of simulated results show reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the measured data.The GMM is also applied to the 10 other hydrological stations in the same estuary.The forecast results for all of the hydrological stations are good or acceptable.The feasibility and effectiveness of this new forecasting model have been proved in this paper.展开更多
Grey theory is a multidisciplinary and generic theory to cope with systems of poor or deficient information. We proposed in this paper an improved grey method (GM) to overcome the disadvantages of the general GM(1,1)....Grey theory is a multidisciplinary and generic theory to cope with systems of poor or deficient information. We proposed in this paper an improved grey method (GM) to overcome the disadvantages of the general GM(1,1). In the improved GM(1,1), a new background value formula is deduced and Markov-chain sign estimation is imbedded into the residual modification model. We tested the efficiency and accuracy of our model by applying it to the power demand forecasting in Taiwan. Experimental results demonstrate the new method has obviously a higher prediction accuracy than the general model.展开更多
The portrayal of obscenity in television series is not a new issue in our society. It is a reasonable fact to be understood, that the exposure to such explicit content of obscenity is acceptable in Western culture but...The portrayal of obscenity in television series is not a new issue in our society. It is a reasonable fact to be understood, that the exposure to such explicit content of obscenity is acceptable in Western culture but somehow or rather, the acceptance of obscenity among the Asian society is still taboo and this has geared parents to pay greater attention to what type of media content should be watched by their children. The researcher believes the audience could also educate themselves by watching such television series since Malaysia is lacking in sexual education. This research consists of qualitative content analysis. The researcher had included the obscene visuals and dialogues in order to justify the existence of such sexual portrayal on the Grey＇s Anatomy TV series. A theory was selected for this study--the application on selected variables from a previous research done by the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation （Sex on TV4, 2005）. The researchers had found that such TV content could be a medium to promote safe sex messages since Malaysia lacks in sex education. The implication on theory was to distinguish the obscenity portrayal in TV series in shaping the audiences＇ acceptance.展开更多
Based on the situation that the statistic of the missile facilities＇ stability was small, and the conventional big example preview method was no longer of use. So, this article used the gray GM （1, 1） model to prev...Based on the situation that the statistic of the missile facilities＇ stability was small, and the conventional big example preview method was no longer of use. So, this article used the gray GM （1, 1） model to preview a facility＇ s stability .The gray GM （1, 1） model doesn＇ t need a large number of example statistics, and it is also accurate, so this model solved the problem in the analyze and preview of the stability of the missile＇ s electronic facility system, and it has possibility to imply to engineering use.展开更多
基金Supported by the Project of China Geological Survey(1212010911084)~~
文摘[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the dynamic changes of vegetation cover and its prediction method. [Method] The NDVl was used as data source to perform the spatial overlay analysis on the vegetation coverage changes of the study area in different time period under the GIS platform, with the aim to reveal the spatial distribution rules of the vegetation cover in Eastern Jilin Province during the recent 10 years. The Markov Model and Grey System G （1, 1） theory model were used to predict the vegetation cover change trend in Eastern Jilin Province. [Result] The vegetation cover increased a little, but staying stable in general. The regions with great changes were mainly around the lake and river. The prediction results of Markov Model and Grey System G （1, 1） theory model were consistent with the observed measurement. [Conclusion] This study provided referential basis for the effective protection of the vegetation coverage in mountainous forest, and important reference value for the scientific decision-making on the forest construction planning in Jilin Province as well as in China and sustainable development of social economy.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40571162)the Natural Science Foun-dation of Anhui Province (No. 050450401)
文摘Flood is one kind of unexpected and the most common natural disasters, which is affected by many factors and has complex mechanism. At home and abroad, there is still no mature theory and method used for the long-term forecast of natural precipitation at present. In the present paper the disadvantages of grey GM (1, 1) and Markov chain are ana- lyzed, and Grey-Markov forecast theory about flood is put forward and then the modifying model is developed by making prediction of Chaohu Lake basin. Hydrological law was conducted based on the theoretical forecasts by grey system GM (1, 1) forecast model with improved Markov chain. The above method contained Stat-analysis, embodying scientific approach, precise forecast and its reliable results.
基金Project(20090580013) supported by the Aeronautic Science Foundation of ChinaProject(ZYGX2010J119) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China
文摘Because the signals of global positioning system （GPS） satellites are susceptible to obstructions in urban environment with many high buildings around, the number of GPS useful satellites is usually less than six. In this case, the receiver autonomous integrity monitoring （RAIM） method earmot exclude faulty satellite. In order to improve the performance of RAIM method and obtain the reliable positioning results with five satellites, the series of receiver clock bias （RCB） is regarded as one useful satellite and used to aid RAIM method. From the point of nonlinear series, a grey-Markov model for predicting the RCB series based on grey theory and Markov chain is presented. And then the model is used for aiding RAIM method in order to exclude faulty satellite. Experimental results demonstrate that the prediction model is fit for predicting the RCB series, and with the clock-based RAIM method the faulty satellite can be correctly excluded and the positioning precision of GPS receiver can be improved for the case where there are only five useful satellites.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71961016)Planning Fund for the Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education(Nos.15XJAZH002,18YJAZH148)Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(No.18JR3RA125)。
文摘To eliminate the grey bias and improve ant-jamming performance of the standard grey-Markov forecasting model,a forecasting model based on wavelet packet decomposition and fuzzy grey Markov(FG-Markov)is proposed considering the characteristics of randomness and nonlinearility of freight volume forecasting.Firstly,based on the data analysis ability of wavelet packet to non-stationary random signal,wavelet packet decomposition is used to improve the analysis ability of data signal by decomposing historical freight volume data into wavelet packet component.On this basis,FG-Markov chain is proposed to obtain the transfer probability matrix of wavelet packet coefficients by introducing fuzzy grey variables,and forecast the freight volume by reconstructing wavelet packet coefficients.Finally,an example of Lanzhou railroad hub is carried out in order to testify the validity and applicability of this forecasting model.Compared with neural network model and other forecasting models,the proposed forecasting model can improve the forecasting accuracy under the same conditions.The forecasting accuracy of wavelet packet decomposition and FG-Markov is not only greater than that of any other single forecasting models,but also superior to that of other traditional combinational forecasting models,which can meet the actual requirements of freight volume forecasting.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (50879085)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University(NCET-07-0778)the Key Technology Research Project of Dynamic Environmental Flume for Ocean Monitoring Facilities (201005027-4)
文摘Compared with traditional real-time forecasting,this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model(GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area.The GMM combines the Grey System and Markov theory into a higher precision model.The GMM takes advantage of the Grey System to predict the trend values and uses the Markov theory to forecast fluctuation values,and thus gives forecast results involving two aspects of information.The procedure for forecasting annul maximum water levels with the GMM contains five main steps:1) establish the GM(1,1) model based on the data series;2) estimate the trend values;3) establish a Markov Model based on relative error series;4) modify the relative errors caused in step 2,and then obtain the relative errors of the second order estimation;5) compare the results with measured data and estimate the accuracy.The historical water level records(from 1960 to 1992) at Yuqiao Hydrological Station in the estuary area of the Haihe River near Tianjin,China are utilized to calibrate and verify the proposed model according to the above steps.Every 25 years' data are regarded as a hydro-sequence.Eight groups of simulated results show reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the measured data.The GMM is also applied to the 10 other hydrological stations in the same estuary.The forecast results for all of the hydrological stations are good or acceptable.The feasibility and effectiveness of this new forecasting model have been proved in this paper.
文摘Grey theory is a multidisciplinary and generic theory to cope with systems of poor or deficient information. We proposed in this paper an improved grey method (GM) to overcome the disadvantages of the general GM(1,1). In the improved GM(1,1), a new background value formula is deduced and Markov-chain sign estimation is imbedded into the residual modification model. We tested the efficiency and accuracy of our model by applying it to the power demand forecasting in Taiwan. Experimental results demonstrate the new method has obviously a higher prediction accuracy than the general model.
文摘The portrayal of obscenity in television series is not a new issue in our society. It is a reasonable fact to be understood, that the exposure to such explicit content of obscenity is acceptable in Western culture but somehow or rather, the acceptance of obscenity among the Asian society is still taboo and this has geared parents to pay greater attention to what type of media content should be watched by their children. The researcher believes the audience could also educate themselves by watching such television series since Malaysia is lacking in sexual education. This research consists of qualitative content analysis. The researcher had included the obscene visuals and dialogues in order to justify the existence of such sexual portrayal on the Grey＇s Anatomy TV series. A theory was selected for this study--the application on selected variables from a previous research done by the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation （Sex on TV4, 2005）. The researchers had found that such TV content could be a medium to promote safe sex messages since Malaysia lacks in sex education. The implication on theory was to distinguish the obscenity portrayal in TV series in shaping the audiences＇ acceptance.
文摘Based on the situation that the statistic of the missile facilities＇ stability was small, and the conventional big example preview method was no longer of use. So, this article used the gray GM （1, 1） model to preview a facility＇ s stability .The gray GM （1, 1） model doesn＇ t need a large number of example statistics, and it is also accurate, so this model solved the problem in the analyze and preview of the stability of the missile＇ s electronic facility system, and it has possibility to imply to engineering use.
