Invariably, it is the poorest of the poor who are mostly affected by perverse disasters, policies and laws. A major concern in disaster research is to explore the relationship between shock experiences and victims＇ p...Invariably, it is the poorest of the poor who are mostly affected by perverse disasters, policies and laws. A major concern in disaster research is to explore the relationship between shock experiences and victims＇ perceptions of risk, as well as their possible effect on victims＇ behavior for resilience and adaptation. We explore this relationship on victimized households of the 1986 Lake Nyos disaster, employing a quasi-experimental design. Matching was done with non-affected households. Both groups affected and non-affected households were of adequate size, and subject to the same questionnaire. Selection of （470） test and matching households was purposely limited to nine of the ten towns accommodating both survivors and non survivors of the examined disaster. A list constructed with traditional rulers in each village allowed for random sampling of non victims for comparative analysis. We then compare households affected by the disaster with those who were not. The results reveal differentiated perceptions of risk and management behavior contingent on whether households experienced the shock or not. However, solidarity and reciprocity remained extremely high and not significantly different amongst both household types, suggesting resilience of endogenous, informal risk response mechanisms to natural shocks. The article concludes that analyzing risk perceptions can help explain why some individuals, households or communities may be resilient to shocks and others not. We argue for a combination of subjective perceptions and objective shock analysis, especially if the analyst hopes to influence policy.展开更多
文摘Invariably, it is the poorest of the poor who are mostly affected by perverse disasters, policies and laws. A major concern in disaster research is to explore the relationship between shock experiences and victims＇ perceptions of risk, as well as their possible effect on victims＇ behavior for resilience and adaptation. We explore this relationship on victimized households of the 1986 Lake Nyos disaster, employing a quasi-experimental design. Matching was done with non-affected households. Both groups affected and non-affected households were of adequate size, and subject to the same questionnaire. Selection of （470） test and matching households was purposely limited to nine of the ten towns accommodating both survivors and non survivors of the examined disaster. A list constructed with traditional rulers in each village allowed for random sampling of non victims for comparative analysis. We then compare households affected by the disaster with those who were not. The results reveal differentiated perceptions of risk and management behavior contingent on whether households experienced the shock or not. However, solidarity and reciprocity remained extremely high and not significantly different amongst both household types, suggesting resilience of endogenous, informal risk response mechanisms to natural shocks. The article concludes that analyzing risk perceptions can help explain why some individuals, households or communities may be resilient to shocks and others not. We argue for a combination of subjective perceptions and objective shock analysis, especially if the analyst hopes to influence policy.
