海南岛气候特征分析

为了更全面系统地了解海南岛的气候特征,更好地服务于经济和社会,利用海南岛18个市县气象站1951—2020年的逐日和逐月气象观测资料,从气候态、极端态和灾害态对海南气候进行了分析,结果显示:海南各地年平均气温均高于23℃,中部山区低东南沿海高,月际变化呈近似对称的单峰型分布,6—7月达最高;年雨量900 mm以上,东西差异大,五指山脉东部和东南迎风侧降水高值中心可达2000 mm以上,月际变化呈阶梯状、非对称单峰型分布,高峰月在9月;年日照时数在1700 h以上,沿海高于北部内陆和中部山区,月际变化呈双峰型分布,主峰在7月、次峰在5月、低谷在2月,显示出明显的雨、热、光同季特征。海南岛北部极端最高气温高于南部,两者均在38℃以上,高值中心可达41.1℃;中部山区极端最低气温低于四周,最低值达−1.4℃;各地最多年雨量在1500 mm以上,最少年雨量少于1500 mm;最长连续雨日在26 d以上,多出现9—10月,最长连续无雨日接近或超过30 d;各地最大日雨量超过300 mm,最大过程雨量在600 mm以上。海南岛高温集中在5—7月,全岛平均高温日约20 d,呈北多南少分布;五指山以北地区低温阴雨较为常见,年均低温阴雨过程1~2次,低温阴雨日数约10 d,五指山以南相对罕见;暴雨日数东多西少,全岛平均年暴雨日约8 d,月际分布呈非对称单峰型,5—10月平缓增多,10—11月断崖式下降;暴雨灾害以单站暴雨为主,半岛范围暴雨是小概率事件,全岛性暴雨非常罕见,均出现在2000年后;气象干旱常见,西部和南部沿海冬春连旱频繁,在秋季台风降雨少时,其他地区也易见冬春连旱。

A Long Lasting and Extensive Drought Event over China in 1876-1878

Between 1876 and 1878 a large-scale drought occurred in China. This is a major meteorological disaster and an extreme climate event despite the cold climate at the end of the Little Ice Age. In this paper the dynamic evolution of the occurrence and development of the drought is reproduced on the basis of historical literature records. These were used to calculate the yearly numbers of drought-hit counties and to determine the spatial distribution in addition with concomitant famine, locust plague and pestilence epidemic for each of the three years. The persistent drought disaster spread over 13 provinces with its center in Shaanxi, Henan and Shanxi provinces, where the continuous non-soaking rain period exceeded 340 days. Conclusively, it is more severe than the worst drought （1928-1930） in the 20th century. This drought disaster of 1876-1878 took place in the descending phase of the 11th sunspot activity period and the start of the 12th period. It also happened during a spell of frequent E1 Nino events and corresponds with an extremely strong E1 Nino.

Removal of noises from electromagnetic radiation of coal or rock with EEMD-adaptive morphological filter

The electromagnetic radiation （EMR） signal collected by monitoring system during coal or rock dynamic disaster may be interferred easily by electromagnetic noises in mines. The noises have a direct influence on the recognition and analysis of the EMR signal features during the disaster. With the aim of removing these noises, an ensemble empirical mode decomposition （EEMD） adaptive morphological filter was proposed. From the result of the simulation and the experiment, it is shown that the method can restrain the random noise and white Gaussian noise mixed with EMR signal effectively. The filter is highly useful for improving the robustness of the coal or rock dynamic disaster monitoring system.

Research on inversion high mining pressure distribution and technology of preventing dynamic disasters by MS monitoring in longwall face

Under two rock strata combination conditions, over 10,000 microseismic events were received with microseismic location monitoring technology which possessed by the author＇s studying team, used in fully mechanized coal face of Huafeng Mine of Xinwen Coal Mining Group Co., Shandong Province. On the basis of the achievement of the location results, the conclusions were drawn as follows： On the basis of the achievement of 3D strata fracturing situation and the section plane of microseimic events in different areas, the relationship between spatial structure of overlying strata and mining pressure field was found, and we might describe distribution range of dynamic pressure of advance pressure and lateral stress around long face, and range of structure ad-tivation. Quantitative guidance to prevent dynamic disasters was provided. The practice in coal mine got a effective results. According to the FLAG3D soft numerical simulation of diameter drilling hole （the diameter is 300 mm） to relieve pressure in specified geological condition in Huafeng Mine, the right distance of two dirlls is 2.5 m and the right depth is 12 m. The research pro-vided basic guiding and practical experiences for the underground microseismic monitoring and disaster prevention in side slopes or tunnels engineering.

Some Potential Solutions to Global Environment Problems ＆ Energy Crisis： Based on Design

Nowadays human society enters the 21st century, with the rapid economic and technological development, people＇s material and spiritual requirements has got great satisfaction. However, natural environmental damage brought by us is also accelerating. Natural disasters happen frequently, including ecological degradation and deterioration, energy resources crisis, greenhouse effect, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes etc. The global crisis has once again waken-up call to mankind. How to properly solve these crises had become a common and urgent responsibility of mankind. This paper will mainly discuss and seek some new potential methods in solving energy crisis and environmental problems from the perspective of automotive and architecture design. As an architect, how to avoid light pollution and reduce heat absorption of roof, increasing heat reflectance of roof are becoming their main and urgent responsibilities. On the other hand, reducing greenhouse effect, researching and developing new low-carbon, low-emission fuel sources are also becoming automotive designers＇ obligations. Living in harmony with nature ＆ earth is becoming the common human themes of the 21 st century.

Dynamic assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazard

The assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards is a significant issue in the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China due to the rapid development of land in the past two decades. In this study, a probabilistic analysis method that combines TRIGRS and the point-estimate method for evaluating the hazards of shallow landslides have been proposed under the condition of rainfall over a large area. TRIGRS provides the transient infiltration model to analyze the pore water pressure during a rainfall. The point-estimate method is used to analyze the uncertainty of the soil parameters, which is performed in the geographic information system(GIS). In this paper, we use this method to evaluate the hazards of shallow landslides in Badong County,Three Gorges Reservoir, under two different types of rainfall intensity, and the results are compared with the field investigation. The results showed that the distribution of the hazard map is consistent with the observed landslides. To some extent, the distributionof the hazard map reflects the spatial and temporal distribution of the shallow landslide caused by rainfall.

Desertification and Blown Sand Disaster in China

Approximately 331 million ha, one-third of China＇s total land, is prone to desertification processes, leading to natural disasters and economic losses. In this study, the situation, tendency, their influences and their risk governance of desertification and blown sand disaster in China were examined using satellite images, field photographs, field data and a literature review. The desiccated areas in Lop Nor and the lower Heihe River fluvial plain covered about 50,000 km2 and 40,000 km2, respectively. In Ejina, about 100 species of vegetation became extinct. The rate of wind erosion in China was between 1,000 tons/km2/year and 2,000 tons/km2/year. There were 12 sand deserts and sandy lands, occupying a total of 710,000 km2. Salinized soils occurred across 99.1 million ha. The two main sand and dust storm-prone areas in China were the Tarim Basin and its surroundings, and the Alxa Plateau and its surroundings. From 1981 to 2007, the annual average frequency of sand and dust storms varied from 1 d to 37 d with a general increase from southeast to northwest. Since 1978, China has implemented a number of ecological construction projects that have reduced desertification from 1999 to 2004 and from 2005 to 2009, and the number of dust and sand storm days from 9.3 d between 1954 and 1959 to 4.4 d between 2000 and 2007. The results could improve understanding of desertification and blown sand disasters in China and provide valuable experiences for global desertification control.

Dynamic characteristics and hazard assessment of debris flow in Shangyao valley

Shangyao valley is located in Jin'an village of Songpan in Sichuan. Many material sources are accumulated in valleys. The debris flow will be triggered by a rain storm with short-duration and strong intensity, which may threaten people's lives and property in downstream. Based on the investigation,the formation conditions of debris flow and its dynamic characteristics are analyzed and its hazard assessment is investigated. Research shows that there is the potential cause of debris flow in Shangyao valley,which is of the middle risk class.

Integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system based on a non-linear information dynamics model

This paper describes a non-linear information dynamics model for integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system from an evolution perspective. According to the occurrence and evolution of natural disaster system with complicated and nonlinear characteristics, a non-linear information dynamics mode is introduced based on the maximum flux principle during modeling process to study the integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system. Based on the non-equilibrium statistical mechanics method, a stochastic evolution equation of this system is established. The integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system can be achieved by giving reasonable weights of each evaluation index to stabilize the system. The new model reveals the formation pattern of risk grade and the dynamics law of evolution. Meanwhile, a method is developed to solve the dynamics evolution equations of complex system through the self-organization feature map algorithm. The proposed method has been used in complex disaster integrated risk assessment for 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China mainland. The results have indicated that the model is objective and effective.