This paper is aimed to explain the huge famine from 1959 to 1961. The literature on this topic paid much attention to the “trigger” mechanism rather than the persistency of the famine. Obviously we should explore wh...This paper is aimed to explain the huge famine from 1959 to 1961. The literature on this topic paid much attention to the “trigger” mechanism rather than the persistency of the famine. Obviously we should explore why the famine lasted so long and I try to provide an answer by observing the grain distribution system and the behavior of provincial governments. I find that the provincial governments in those heavy stricken areas behaved confusingly. On one hand, they re sold large amount of grain to relieve the famine inside the provinces; on the other hand, they transferred grains outside to “help” other provinces. What made the situation worse was that the grain resale could be hardly delivered to the victims in time. The lagged relief was due to the planning grain distribution system which reacted slowly to the famine and actually collapsed during the famine period.展开更多
Analyzing time series characteristics of red tide is the basis of disaster prevention and mitigation,which is very important to red tide prediction.There are trend comp onents and periodic components in annual time se...Analyzing time series characteristics of red tide is the basis of disaster prevention and mitigation,which is very important to red tide prediction.There are trend comp onents and periodic components in annual time series of occurrence freque ncy and area of red tides,so Gray-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model(GPECM)is used to extract these components.The fitting degree of occurrence frequency and area can reach 95.20% and 95.24%,respectively.The performance of GPECM is better than Gray Model,Fourier Series Extension Model,and Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing Model in model stability.Consequently,it is used to forecast the occurrence frequency and area in 2020 and 2021,and results show that the annual frequency of red tides in 2020 and 2021 can rise to 39 and 41,respectively,and that the annual occurrence area of red tides can rise to 3168 km^(2),which is about 59% more than last year.In 2021,it can fall to 1901 km^(2).展开更多
文摘This paper is aimed to explain the huge famine from 1959 to 1961. The literature on this topic paid much attention to the “trigger” mechanism rather than the persistency of the famine. Obviously we should explore why the famine lasted so long and I try to provide an answer by observing the grain distribution system and the behavior of provincial governments. I find that the provincial governments in those heavy stricken areas behaved confusingly. On one hand, they re sold large amount of grain to relieve the famine inside the provinces; on the other hand, they transferred grains outside to “help” other provinces. What made the situation worse was that the grain resale could be hardly delivered to the victims in time. The lagged relief was due to the planning grain distribution system which reacted slowly to the famine and actually collapsed during the famine period.
文摘Analyzing time series characteristics of red tide is the basis of disaster prevention and mitigation,which is very important to red tide prediction.There are trend comp onents and periodic components in annual time series of occurrence freque ncy and area of red tides,so Gray-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model(GPECM)is used to extract these components.The fitting degree of occurrence frequency and area can reach 95.20% and 95.24%,respectively.The performance of GPECM is better than Gray Model,Fourier Series Extension Model,and Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing Model in model stability.Consequently,it is used to forecast the occurrence frequency and area in 2020 and 2021,and results show that the annual frequency of red tides in 2020 and 2021 can rise to 39 and 41,respectively,and that the annual occurrence area of red tides can rise to 3168 km^(2),which is about 59% more than last year.In 2021,it can fall to 1901 km^(2).
