利用福建省近岸海域1959—2018年的赤潮历史记录数据资料,在地理信息系统(Geographical Information System,GIS)平台下采用核密度估计函数(kernel density estimation)对赤潮历史记录数据中的赤潮发生频次、赤潮发生持续时间、赤潮面...利用福建省近岸海域1959—2018年的赤潮历史记录数据资料,在地理信息系统(Geographical Information System,GIS)平台下采用核密度估计函数(kernel density estimation)对赤潮历史记录数据中的赤潮发生频次、赤潮发生持续时间、赤潮面积和赤潮藻类毒性等参数进行了空间评估分析并根据赤潮灾害危险度区划方法得到未来5 a福建省近岸海域赤潮灾害危险性空间分布情况,同时创新性地提出赤潮危险性区划结果的验证方法。危险性区划结果表明未来5 a福建省近岸海域处于极高危险性区的海域主要有霞浦县近岸海域、连江县近岸海域、平潭县近岸东部海域及厦门市同安湾近岸海域。处于高危险性区的海域主要有福鼎市-霞浦县近岸海域、罗源县-连江县近岸海域、平潭县周边近岸海域东部海域、福清市南部-莆田东北部近岸海域、石狮市周边近岸海域及厦门市近岸海域,其余海域处于中危险性区和低危险性区。验证结果表明构建的区划方法和区划结果具有较好的合理性和可信性,区划结果将为福建省近岸海域赤潮灾害应急处置、纳污海域污染总量控制制定有效的管理措施提供科学依据,从而达到防灾减灾的目的,而且对指导海洋水产养殖、滨海旅游业规划等具有重要的科学意义。展开更多
Let {Tn } be a renewal process in R＋ representing the successive arrival times of some natural events. We studied this process by using a record process approach under the assumption that the interarrival times T,, =...Let {Tn } be a renewal process in R＋ representing the successive arrival times of some natural events. We studied this process by using a record process approach under the assumption that the interarrival times T,, = Tn, - Ta-1, n = 1, 2...are exponentially i.i.d （independent and identically distributed）. The goal is to test that the first observed events are sporadic events. For testing the hypothesis ＂sporadic＂ we used the non-parametric test based on the probability distribution of the statistic of the number of records N, among{Xx }k-1= where Xk = （ΔTk）-1. We showed that it is independent of the cumulative distribution of the observations and that it is exactly calculated for each n. We illustrated this statistic on a simulated trajectory and we compared it with descriptive smoothing methods. We studied an application to a data set as storms in France and US.展开更多
文摘利用福建省近岸海域1959—2018年的赤潮历史记录数据资料,在地理信息系统(Geographical Information System,GIS)平台下采用核密度估计函数(kernel density estimation)对赤潮历史记录数据中的赤潮发生频次、赤潮发生持续时间、赤潮面积和赤潮藻类毒性等参数进行了空间评估分析并根据赤潮灾害危险度区划方法得到未来5 a福建省近岸海域赤潮灾害危险性空间分布情况,同时创新性地提出赤潮危险性区划结果的验证方法。危险性区划结果表明未来5 a福建省近岸海域处于极高危险性区的海域主要有霞浦县近岸海域、连江县近岸海域、平潭县近岸东部海域及厦门市同安湾近岸海域。处于高危险性区的海域主要有福鼎市-霞浦县近岸海域、罗源县-连江县近岸海域、平潭县周边近岸海域东部海域、福清市南部-莆田东北部近岸海域、石狮市周边近岸海域及厦门市近岸海域,其余海域处于中危险性区和低危险性区。验证结果表明构建的区划方法和区划结果具有较好的合理性和可信性,区划结果将为福建省近岸海域赤潮灾害应急处置、纳污海域污染总量控制制定有效的管理措施提供科学依据,从而达到防灾减灾的目的,而且对指导海洋水产养殖、滨海旅游业规划等具有重要的科学意义。
文摘Let {Tn } be a renewal process in R＋ representing the successive arrival times of some natural events. We studied this process by using a record process approach under the assumption that the interarrival times T,, = Tn, - Ta-1, n = 1, 2...are exponentially i.i.d （independent and identically distributed）. The goal is to test that the first observed events are sporadic events. For testing the hypothesis ＂sporadic＂ we used the non-parametric test based on the probability distribution of the statistic of the number of records N, among{Xx }k-1= where Xk = （ΔTk）-1. We showed that it is independent of the cumulative distribution of the observations and that it is exactly calculated for each n. We illustrated this statistic on a simulated trajectory and we compared it with descriptive smoothing methods. We studied an application to a data set as storms in France and US.
