应用河西走廊敦煌、酒泉、张掖、民勤四站2006-2015年5-10月逐日07:00(北京时,下同)和19:00探空资料,分析0℃层高度的变化特征,以及与干湿、降水、灾害天气的关系。结果表明:0℃层高度与日极端气温、0 cm最低地温关系最为密切,日极端气...应用河西走廊敦煌、酒泉、张掖、民勤四站2006-2015年5-10月逐日07:00(北京时,下同)和19:00探空资料,分析0℃层高度的变化特征,以及与干湿、降水、灾害天气的关系。结果表明:0℃层高度与日极端气温、0 cm最低地温关系最为密切,日极端气温地温越高,0℃层高度越高,在19:00相关性最好,系数大于0.95;温度露点差(T-Td)值与日降水量、日最低气温和0 cm最低地温成反相关,而与气温日较差成正相关,最大相关系数大于0.7。河西0℃层高度在3300~5000 m,气压在680~560 h Pa,T-Td在10~17℃,早上低而湿,夜间相反。干湿天气对比中,干天气时0℃层高度高且早晚变化明显,19:00较高;而湿天气时T-Td早晚变化明显,07:00较小。有降水时,0℃层高度在3000~4800 m,气压在750~570 h Pa,T-Td<8℃,07:00 T-Td<6℃;昼夜变化中夜间降水07:00高度低,而白天降水19:00高度低。不同降水量级中,T-Td从小到大为大雨、中雨和小雨,相应最大值分别为2℃、5℃和9℃。雷暴0℃层高度在3600~4900 m,气压在660~560 h Pa,T-Td≤7℃。风沙天气0℃层气压在700~540 h Pa,沙尘暴0℃层高度7-9月07:00明显较高,7-8月达5000 m以上;沙尘暴天气出现时早上干而夜间湿,19:00 T-Td<5℃,因而汛期沙暴多发生在午后且伴有降水。≥35℃高温天气0℃层高度在4600~5300 m,气压在570~530 h Pa,T-Td≥13℃。展开更多
High temperature and drought occurred in Yunnan province during the late spring and early summer in 2005, which was the most severe event in this region since 1950’s. Based on the observational data and relevant diag...High temperature and drought occurred in Yunnan province during the late spring and early summer in 2005, which was the most severe event in this region since 1950’s. Based on the observational data and relevant diagnoses, this extreme weather event was studied and discussed. The results show that the occurrence of this event could be due to the following observational facts that happened in 2005. (1) The seasonal adjustment of middle-high-leveled atmospheric circulation was delayed. (2) The cold air activity center was deviated north. (3) The onset of summer monsoon over South China Sea was delayed. (4) The tropical convection activity was much weaker than usual. (5) The subtropical high over the western Pacific was located southwestwards and relatively strong.展开更多
The Chedaren ravine belongs to high-prone areas of debris flow in Jilin Province, which threaten the local people＇ s life and security seriously. The authors used the residual correction theory to amend the GM （ 1,...The Chedaren ravine belongs to high-prone areas of debris flow in Jilin Province, which threaten the local people＇ s life and security seriously. The authors used the residual correction theory to amend the GM （ 1, 1 ） model and forecast annual precipitation in disaster year of the Chedaren ravine ; it provides scientific foundation for early warning of debris flow disaster in the rainy season based on weather forecast. The prediction resuits show that annual precipitation is 724.7 mm in 2009 ; the region will probably occur large-scale debris flow during the rainy season.展开更多
According to the results of The Second Comprehensive Scientific Expedition on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,the balance of solid and liquid water on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is disturbed,and a large amount of solid water...According to the results of The Second Comprehensive Scientific Expedition on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,the balance of solid and liquid water on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is disturbed,and a large amount of solid water,such as glaciers and perpetual snow,is transformed into liquid water,which aggravates the risk of flood disasters in the Plateau.Based on the historical flood disaster records of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the flood disasters in the Plateau,and estimated the critical rainfall for the flood disasters combined with precipitation data from the meteorological stations in each basin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The results show that most of the flood disaster events in the Plateau are caused by precipitation,and the average annual occurrence of flood disasters is more than 30 cases and their frequency is on the rise.The high frequency areas of flood disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are mainly in the Hehuang Valley and the Hengduan Mountains area;the secondary high frequency areas are located in the valley area of South Tibet and the peripheral area of the Hehuang valley.Finally,we found that the highest critical rainfall value of flood disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is in the southern area of the plateau,followed by the eastern and southeastern parts of the plateau,and the lowest values are in the central,western and northern parts of the Plateau.展开更多
文摘应用河西走廊敦煌、酒泉、张掖、民勤四站2006-2015年5-10月逐日07:00(北京时,下同)和19:00探空资料,分析0℃层高度的变化特征,以及与干湿、降水、灾害天气的关系。结果表明:0℃层高度与日极端气温、0 cm最低地温关系最为密切,日极端气温地温越高,0℃层高度越高,在19:00相关性最好,系数大于0.95;温度露点差(T-Td)值与日降水量、日最低气温和0 cm最低地温成反相关,而与气温日较差成正相关,最大相关系数大于0.7。河西0℃层高度在3300~5000 m,气压在680~560 h Pa,T-Td在10~17℃,早上低而湿,夜间相反。干湿天气对比中,干天气时0℃层高度高且早晚变化明显,19:00较高;而湿天气时T-Td早晚变化明显,07:00较小。有降水时,0℃层高度在3000~4800 m,气压在750~570 h Pa,T-Td<8℃,07:00 T-Td<6℃;昼夜变化中夜间降水07:00高度低,而白天降水19:00高度低。不同降水量级中,T-Td从小到大为大雨、中雨和小雨,相应最大值分别为2℃、5℃和9℃。雷暴0℃层高度在3600~4900 m,气压在660~560 h Pa,T-Td≤7℃。风沙天气0℃层气压在700~540 h Pa,沙尘暴0℃层高度7-9月07:00明显较高,7-8月达5000 m以上;沙尘暴天气出现时早上干而夜间湿,19:00 T-Td<5℃,因而汛期沙暴多发生在午后且伴有降水。≥35℃高温天气0℃层高度在4600~5300 m,气压在570~530 h Pa,T-Td≥13℃。
基金The New Meteorological Technology Promotion Project of China MeteorologicalAdministration (CMATG2006M45)a project of the Chengdu Plateau Meteorology Institute, ChinaMeteorological Administration (LPM2006015)
文摘High temperature and drought occurred in Yunnan province during the late spring and early summer in 2005, which was the most severe event in this region since 1950’s. Based on the observational data and relevant diagnoses, this extreme weather event was studied and discussed. The results show that the occurrence of this event could be due to the following observational facts that happened in 2005. (1) The seasonal adjustment of middle-high-leveled atmospheric circulation was delayed. (2) The cold air activity center was deviated north. (3) The onset of summer monsoon over South China Sea was delayed. (4) The tropical convection activity was much weaker than usual. (5) The subtropical high over the western Pacific was located southwestwards and relatively strong.
文摘The Chedaren ravine belongs to high-prone areas of debris flow in Jilin Province, which threaten the local people＇ s life and security seriously. The authors used the residual correction theory to amend the GM （ 1, 1 ） model and forecast annual precipitation in disaster year of the Chedaren ravine ; it provides scientific foundation for early warning of debris flow disaster in the rainy season based on weather forecast. The prediction resuits show that annual precipitation is 724.7 mm in 2009 ; the region will probably occur large-scale debris flow during the rainy season.
基金The Key Research and Development Projects of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2019YFA0606900)The Second Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(2019QZKK0906)。
文摘According to the results of The Second Comprehensive Scientific Expedition on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,the balance of solid and liquid water on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is disturbed,and a large amount of solid water,such as glaciers and perpetual snow,is transformed into liquid water,which aggravates the risk of flood disasters in the Plateau.Based on the historical flood disaster records of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the flood disasters in the Plateau,and estimated the critical rainfall for the flood disasters combined with precipitation data from the meteorological stations in each basin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The results show that most of the flood disaster events in the Plateau are caused by precipitation,and the average annual occurrence of flood disasters is more than 30 cases and their frequency is on the rise.The high frequency areas of flood disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are mainly in the Hehuang Valley and the Hengduan Mountains area;the secondary high frequency areas are located in the valley area of South Tibet and the peripheral area of the Hehuang valley.Finally,we found that the highest critical rainfall value of flood disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is in the southern area of the plateau,followed by the eastern and southeastern parts of the plateau,and the lowest values are in the central,western and northern parts of the Plateau.
