强者的形象

克非的近作《头儿》(《四川文学》第4期),为艺术画廊引进了一个很有个性的新型人物——包工头的鲜明形象。很难说这是个正面人物,还是个反面人物。他粗犷、刚毅、敏锐、事业心极强而又贪婪、自私、残忍,还带有几分野性和兽性,但他确实是一个活生生的人,是现实生活中的强者。

东南亚国家金融动荡的原因

1997年7月初以来,东南亚国家的外汇市场出现了剧烈震荡。泰国、菲律宾、马来西亚、印度尼西亚货币相继大幅度贬值,新元汇价也受波及并酿成区域性的货币危机。究其原因,主要是这些国家处于转型期经济的结构性矛盾激化和政府政策失误所致。

我国当前面临的特殊金融风险

目前,中国正处于由计划经济体制向市 场经济体制转轨的过程之中,新旧体制处于相互交错的状态之中。一方面,旧的计划体制依然在社会经济的许多领域发挥着种种作用,干扰甚至阻碍着新的市场经济体制的建立和运行;另一方面,新的市场经济体制脱胎于旧的计划经济体制,还很不完善,尚不能有效地规范和调节自身的运行,有时还不得不求助于旧的计划经济体制。

波兰的养老金制度改革

一、经济转轨的社会保障机制分析 实现从计划经济体制向市场经济体制的转轨,是一项极其艰巨和复杂的系统工程,其关键在于处理好经济稳定和发展与体制转轨的关系,尽可能地避免引起整个经济社会的剧烈震荡和冲突,努力实现从计划经济体制到市场经济体制的平稳过渡与对接。从经济机制运作本身来看,一方面必须有效地抑制总需求,降低通货膨胀,以实现经济的稳定和发展。抑制需求要付出许多代价,在经济上集中地表现在政府财政赤字的迅速增加,因为财政收入税减,

还给精神病患者一片绿洲

“精神病”这是个送不走的“瘟疫”,有史以来一直难以摆脱复发——住院——再复发——再住院的人间悲剧,多少青春被断送,多少梦幻被破碎,它给人类背上深重的“十字架”。这些蓬头垢面,衣不蔽体、疯疯颠颠、神情呆滞的患者,苟延残生,四处流荡。他们挣扎在人生的死亡线上。不堪忍受、绝望地向人类医学界发出强烈的呼救和呐喊…… 回首精神病临床历史,传统、单一的(西药、电疗、胰岛素、休克)等方法,并不能解除更不可能阻止其病情的再次复发。因此,突破传统框框,采用中医中药、中西结合,普及防治精神病知识、早发现、早治疗,是防止和减少再复发的唯一手段,已是医学界一个严肃的“课题和主攻方向。” “我相信——祖国医学的宝库中一定能找到开启精神病大门的钥匙”。这是郑州市管城中医院康复门诊孟昭虎主任的慷慨陈词,这位已过不惑之年的汉子,自幼酷爱医学,十多年的医疗生涯中,一直从事精神病的临床与研究工作,目睹无数患者畸形扭曲的变态心理,那一张张“欲哭无泪,欲罢不忍”。充满期望和哀求的眼神。

5浪近尾声 冲高宜减磅

本周股指高位剧烈震荡,周一因各类大规模机构资金入市的消息刺激大涨创新高,技术上摆脱前盘整区域,周四又因技术上的原因大幅下跌,周五股指大幅回升,一举扫清周四的颓势,股指周K线以中阳线报收,成交量显著放大。上证指数是否能借势逾越1750～1780点这个“雷区”?笔者认为不宜太乐观。

Predicting landslide scenes under potential earthquake scenarios in the Xianshuihe fault zone, Southwest China

Earthquake-induced landslides can seriously aggravate the earthquake's destructive consequences and have caused widespread concern in recent decades. The Xianshuihe fault is a large active left-lateral strike-slip fault in the southeast margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Southwest China, where the frequent strong earthquakes have brought abundant geo-hazards. This study focuses mainly on exploring and predicting the landslide scenes induced by the potential earthquakes. Firstly, the sophisticated Newmark model is improved through landslide cases induced by the Ms7.9 Luhuo earthquake in 1973 to adapt the field seismotectonics of the Xianshuihe fault zone. Then, it is used to predict the landslide scenes under one speculated potential earthquake scenario with the similar focal mechanism with the Luhuo earthquake. The preliminary results show that the slope displacement resulted from Newmark model can reflect spatial distribution characteristics ofearthquake-induced landslides. The predicted potential earthquake-induced landslide scenes present an obvious extending trend along the Xianshuihe fault. The landslide hazard is greater in the northeast regions than southwest regions of the Xianshuihe fault, where there are more complex topographic conditions. The study procedure will be a helpful demonstration for exploration and prediction of landslide scenes under potential earthquakes in the regions with high seismic activity.

Influence of site conditions on ground motion at far field loess sites during strong earthquake

Loess is widely distributed in China and the Loess Plateau is one of the major areas where strong earthquakes often take place. The seismic amplification effects were discovered in the Plateau during the Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake and some other strong events. Based on earth tremor observation, borehole exploration and site seismic response analysis, the site effects of topography of Loess Yuan on ground motion were investigated in details. The earth tremor investigation shows that predominant frequencies at the bottom sites of Loess Yuan are greater than those at the top obviously. The sites seismic response analysis shows that the Loess Yuan may amplify peak ground acceleration (PGA) by 1.44 2.0 times. Therefore, site effects of mountains and loess topography on ground motion should be taken account into in seismic design in loess regions.

Damage and Seismic Intensity in the Meizoseismal Region of the M_S8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake,Sichuan,China

This paper presents the damage in the meizoseismal region of the M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake,Sichuan,China,and the seismic intensities determined according to "the Chinese Seismic Intensity Scale",and discusses briefly the types of earthquake-generating faults and some features of seismic damage.

Research on Strong Earthquake Tendency on Active Tectonic Block Boundaries in the Chinese Mainland

Previous studies have shown that the active tectonic block boundaries in the Chinese mainland are the main belts and concentration areas of strong earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland.It is essential to carry out follow-up analysis of strong earthquake risk of active tectonic block boundaries.In this paper,we carry out the analysis on the tendency of strong earthquakes along each active tectonic block boundary from three aspects respectively,including the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the probability method based on the log-normal distribution function,and variation of b value.The estimation of strong earthquake criticality on each active tectonic block boundary is done based on the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the cumulative probability and conditional probability,and the decrease of the b value.Finally,according to the results of analyses on the above three aspects,the potential strong earthquake areas in the forthcoming 5 years in the Chinese mainland are discussed.

Anomalies of Precursory Group and Grouped Strong Earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region

Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of precursory groups (ID) and the values of short-term and impending anomaly in near-source area (NS). Using these methods, we calculate the observational data of deformation, underground fluid and hydrochemical constituents obtained from different seismic stations in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and conclude that the synthetic precursory anomalies of a single strong earthquake with M S6.0 differ greatly from those of the grouped strong earthquakes, for the anomalous information of precursory groups are more abundant. The three methods of extracting the synthetic precursory anomaly and the related numerical results can be applied into the practice of prediction to the grouped strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Inhomogeneous degree (ID) of synthetic precursory anomaly can be identified automatically because it takes the threshold of distributive characteristics of the anomalies of precursory group as its criterion for anomaly.

Study on the Remote Sensing Assessment of Seismic Intensity of the Yushu Earthquake Based on the Synthetic Seismic Damage Index

This paper provides an overview of the ideas and methods of the assessment of seismic intensity based on remote sensing and describes the models used to assess the remote sensing based synthetic seismic damage index and seismic intensity. With the data of damage information extracted from the high-resolution aerial images in the earthquake-stricken areas( Jiegu town,Yushu city,Qinghai) of the 2010 MS7. 1 Yushu earthquake,and the data obtained through post-earthquake field investigation,the seismic damage degree and seismic intensity have been estimated. The analysis of the results shows that the seismic intensity in Yushu city is estimated as IX through the RS assessment method,which is consistent with the result estimated according to the ground surveys. The results are discussed in the last part of the paper and indicate that the RS techniques are expected to be one of the main methods used to estimate the seismic intensity values in the emergency stage.

Analysis and Study on the Change of the Observed Geo-electric Field Data at Lhasa Geomagnetic Station before and after the Nepal MS8.1 Earthquake

In this paper,the main purpose is to analyze and research the characteristics of the geoelectric field observed data with a long time span and large amplitude abnormal change,at the Lhasa geomagnetic station( hereafter referred to as "Lhasa station "),before and after the Nepal M_S8. 1 strong earthquake,which occurred on April 25,2015. Based on the observation conditions,the observation system,and the observed data of Lhasa station preliminary discussed,the main characteristics of the abnormal change and evolution process are analyzed and studied,using the following two methods; the "synthesis energy accumulation"and the "power as MSA spectrum"analysis,from the two aspects of the"Time Domain"and"Frequency Domain. "The results show that the abnormal change of the geo-electric field observation of Lhasa station experienced a development stage following the process of "trend change- disturbance change- earthquake period-recovery period",and an evolution process of "low frequency change- high frequency change- smooth change- high frequency change ",before and after the Nepal M_S8. 1strong earthquake. Comprehensive analysis shows that the variation characteristics and evolution process of the geo-electric field at Lhasa station are basically consistent with the results of the relevant mechanism and phenomenon research. So far,this is valuable information with certain objectivity,which is typical and representative to reflect the whole process of the gestation, occurrence and complete development of such strongearthquakes.

The Relationship Between Strong Earthquake Activity of M_S≥7.0 on the Chinese Mainland and the West Kunlun-A'nyêmaqên Secondary Arcuate Tectonic Zone

The active and quiet phenomenon of moderate strong earthquakes one year before the earthquakes with M S≥7.0, the spatial distribution characteristics of the solid tide modulating and triggering earthquakes and the strong earthquake mechanisms on the Chinese continent have been studied. The secondary arcuate tectonic zone composed of the west Kunlun-Anyêmaqên faults is believed to be a very important boundary to characterize strong earthquake activity of M S≥7.0 on the Chinese continent, that is, a boundary between the seismically active region and the quiet region of moderately strong earthquakes one year before earthquakes with M S≥7.0, and a boundary of the spatial distributions between the solid tide modulating strong earthquakes (M S≥7.0) and the non-modulating ones. It might be related with the characteristics of spatial distribution of focal mechanism solutions of strong earthquakes on the Chinese Continent.

An Innovative Seismic Protection System for Conventional RC Buildings

As capacity design philosophy suggests, the best way to achieve a safe seismic response of multistory buildings, under strong earthquakes, is to uniformly spread the inelastic deformation demands throughout the building structure. Unfortunately, this type of mechanism is difficult to be reached due to the abundant presence ofinfill wall panels on buildings, which under strong earthquakes show severe cracks and strength degradations, thus complicating the seismic response of buildings. In order to avoid these brittle mechanisms of failure, studies were made toward development of new seismic protection system which would completely protect the infill walls from any cracks and strength degradation manifestations and simultaneously improve the seismic response of the entire structure. Utilization of the ＂IDRIZI＂ seismic protection system, would greatly contribute to many important aspects, like the increase of structural seismic performance, drastic reduction of damages under strong earthquake events and avoiding any unpredictable local failure mechanisms on buildings.

On the Lateral Behavior of the Backfill of a Skew Abutment

It is generally accepted that the interaction between a bridge and its abutment＇s backfill soil is highly nonlinear, especially under a strong earthquake loading that contains a velocity pulse. For bridges with skew abutments, the superstructure-abutment interaction can dominate the overall bridge performance. This study puts forth a new approach for predicting the lateral capacity of a skew abutment using verified high-fidelity three-dimensional continuum finite element （FE） models. The core idea is that the lateral capacity of a straight abutment is bounded from above and below by that of the abutment of a skew bridge that has the same deck-width, and that of another skew bridge （with the same angle） that has the same backwall length as the original/straight bridge, respectively. This postulation is then used in reverse to estimate the lateral capacity of a skew abutment, given the capacity of a straight but otherwise identical one with an arbitrary length. In prior research, the latter information had already been obtained in closed-form expressions that use physical parameters, such as backfill cohesion, internal friction angle and density, backwall height, and backwall-backfill friction angle. The approach presented here is constrained by the assumption that bridge deck will not rotate during loading. While this assumption is generally violated in a strong earthquake--because a skew bridge will tend to rotate, especially if its in-plane torsional rigidity is low, the model presented does serve as an anchor for parameterizing more advanced （e.g., macro-element plasticity） models that allow rotation, and also as fully parametric lateral response models for torsionally stiff （ile., multi-span, multi-bent） skew bridges.

Research on ETABS Steel Tower atop Building Structural System

Equipping steel tower atop building structural system at the top of high-rise buildings is applied increasingly. However, the earthquake disasters indicate that under seismic effect, the tower on the roof reacts strongly to the earthquake, and the gazebo is damaged greatly under the condition that major structure has no earthquake damage. Based on analyzing the characteristics and application methods of ETABS software, for engineering projects, the paper uses ETABS software and simplified calculation method to calculate and make comparison analysis on steel tower atop building structure. The analysis results indicate that the method established in the paper has higher accuracy, which can meet the engineering requirements.

Parameter Fitting of Seismic Intensity Attenuation Model in Xinjiang

By using the existing historical earthquake investigation data in Xinjiang,this paper obtained the envelope curves of isoseismal maps of 103 destructive earthquakes occurring from 1716 to 2010 after digitization of the data. The author summarized the seismic intensity attenuation laws in the Xinjiang region with the multiple regression fitting method. The intensity attenuation function of the elliptical model was provided and the fitting results in different periods and areas were compared. Finally, the intensity attenuation relationship in the Xinjiang region was obtained by the method of constraining the start and end of the attenuation curves.

Consistent Distribution of Stress before Strong Earthquake from Focal Mechanisms

At some stage of a strong earthquake preparation, the focal mechanisms of small earthquakes have roughly the same direction with the tectonic stress field. According to this feature, we define the angle between P, B and T axis of focal mechanisms and the three stress axes of tectonic stress field as the consistency parameter a in studying the dynamic changes of stress fields in earthquake preparation areas. We mainly analyze the changes of the consistency parameter a of the Mw8. 3 Knril island arc earthquake and the Mw8. 4 Peru earthquake. Our study shows that before the strong earthquakes, the earthquake area saw a low consistency, and the focal mechanisms of a series of small earthquakes had small differences in the directions with the tectonic stress field, which means the foreshocks were under the control of the stress field. On the other hand, a higher consistency means the focal mechanisms of their aftershocks are scattered and have big differences in the directions with the tectonic field, which indicate that the control of background stress field starts weakening.

Safety analysis of building foundations over old goaf under additional stress from building load and seismic actions

Additional displacement of the building foundations over old goaf are prone to happen under the addi- tional loads induced by new buildings, weakening-rock mass by mining and seismic actions, which will cause serious damage to the buildings. In order to analyze the safety of the building foundations safety over the old goaf. the structure characteristics of the strata over the old goaf was investigated and the instability conditions of overhanging rocks upon old goaf were also analyzed in this paper. The results indicate that the stability of overhanging rocks is remarkably decreased by the interactions of mining fractures, earthquake force and building load, in addition, the settlement of the foundations over old goal is increased by the instability of overhanging rocks. According to the location of a new power plant in Yima Mine and its ambient conditions, we defined the influence scope of old goal via resistivity tomography. Based on the seismic parameters of the construction site, a numerical FLAC3d model of the building foundation under the seismic actions and building load was developed. The numerical results are obtained as follows： the foundation of the main power house meets the requirement of 6° seismic fortification intensity： however, under 7° seismic fortification intensity, the maximum differential settlement of foundation between the neighboring pillars is close to the maximum allowable value, while the seismic fortification intensity reaches 8°, but the safety requirements will not be satisfied.