热带大洋春季海气耦合模态及其与ENSO的关系

在北半球的春季,热带三大洋的海洋–大气系统年际变化会对同期太平洋厄尔尼诺–南方涛动(El Niño-Southern oscillation,ENSO)产生响应,同时也能通过区域海洋–大气耦合过程影响ENSO的发展。基于国际公开使用的海表温度资料和降水资料,通过联合正交经验分解方法分析,可以发现全球大洋春季存在两种显著的海气耦合模态。第一模态表现为:在热带中东太平洋,海表温度增暖、降水增多;在热带大西洋和热带印度洋,降水呈现经向偶极型分布以及跨赤道的海表温度梯度异常;即伴随ENSO在春季消亡期的空间型态,大西洋出现经向模态,印度洋出现反对称模态。第二模态表现为:太平洋经向海表温度和降水模态,即太平洋经向模态。回归分析结果表明,ENSO盛期的大气环流调整引起了热带大西洋和印度洋降水辐合带异常,并通过海面风场异常激发海盆内部的海洋–大气反馈,引起春季经向模态。进一步研究发现,冬、春季大西洋和印度洋热带辐合带分别位于赤道以北和以南,导致两个海盆经向模态的降水异常相对赤道呈反对称分布。在春季,太平洋经向模态的暖中心延伸到赤道上,引起西风异常,为后续El Niño的发展提供了有利条件。文章揭示了太平洋ENSO与春季热带三大洋经向模态之间的关系,这有助于更好地理解热带气候模态的季节性“足迹”的发展过程。

基于CMIP5资料的热带大洋非均匀增暖及其成因的分析

利用第五次耦合模式比较计划(coupled model intercomparison project phase 5,简称CMIP5)中的月平均资料,基于合成分析、相关分析等现代气象统计方法,对热带太平洋、印度洋和大西洋年平均海温增暖不均匀特征及其成因进行分析。9个海洋模式集合的平均结果表明:在全球增暖背景下,3个热带大洋的海温增暖均表现出不均匀性,且增暖原因存在较大差异。热带太平洋赤道及其以北地区以海洋动力作用为主,赤道以南地区则以大气热力作用为主,而且海水上翻/下沉运动对海温增暖的作用在东、西太平洋之间存在明显差异;热带印度洋大面积海域的海温变化难以通过海气热通量交换来解释,海水上翻/下沉运动与温度平流对海温增暖的作用比较一致(二者同时利于海温增暖);热带大西洋赤道附近地区的海温增暖是表层温度平流和上翻/下沉运动共同作用的结果,赤道以北的大西洋海温变化则以温度平流的作用为主,而赤道以南的大西洋海温的变化主要是海水上翻/下沉作用引起的。

赤道海洋Kelvin波对外强迫风场的响应

采用无界理想海洋线性扰动模型,对赤道海洋Kelvin波在纬向风场异常强迫下的响应即强迫赤道海洋Kelvin波的异常做了解析求解,主要结果如下:该强迫赤道海洋Kelvin波的频率、波长和波速都与外强迫风场的相同,在赤道纬向流振幅最大并随纬度增加衰减,该风场越强,该强迫赤道海洋Kelvin波也越强,两者呈正比关系。当该风场频率和范围确定后,则该强迫赤道海洋Kelvin波被限制在一定平均水深范围内;该风场的频率越高、纬向波长越长、随纬度增加衰减越小,则该水深就越大。在所取参数下,该风场异常与该强迫赤道海洋Kelvin波流场异常的位相基本相同。在西风强迫下有东向流,反之亦然;强迫赤道海洋Kelvin波的流场与位势场则完全同位相,东向流对应于正位势,反之亦然,这也是经典Kelvin波的配置。该强迫赤道海洋Kelvin波与经典Kelvin波的不同在于:前者是频散的强迫波动,并被限制在一定水深中;后者是自由波动。将该强迫Kelvin波的解析解与热带印度洋和太平洋的实况以及诊断进行对比后知,两者总体看来一致,实际热带大洋中该强迫赤道海洋Kelvin波应确实存在。

Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals:a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach

Large-scale annual climate indices were used to forecast annual drought conditions in the Maharlu-Bakhtegan watershed,located in Iran,using a neuro-fuzzy model.The Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) was used as a proxy for drought conditions.Among the 45 climate indices considered,eight identified as most relevant were the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO),Atlantic Meridional Mode(AMM),the Bivariate ENSO Time series(BEST),the East Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature(NINO 3.4),the Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature(NINO 4),the North Tropical Atlantic Index(NTA),the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI),and the Tropical Northern Atlantic Index(TNA).These indices accounted for 81% of the variance in the Principal Components Analysis(PCA) method.The Atlantic surface temperature(SST:Atlantic) had an inverse relationship with SPI,and the AMM index had the highest correlation.Drought forecasts of neuro-fuzzy model demonstrate better prediction at a two-year lag compared to a stepwise regression model.

Enhanced correlation between ENSO and western North Pacific monsoon during boreal summer around the 1990s

The correlation between summertime Nino3.4 index and western North Pacific(WNP)summer monsoon index has strikingly enhanced since the early 1990 s,with nonsignificant correlation before the early1990 s but significant correlation afterward.This observed interdecadal change around the 1990 s may be associated with more frequent occurrences of central Pacific(CP)El Nino and the interdecadal changes in ENSO-associated SST anomalies.During the post-1990 s period(the pre-1990 s period),highly noticeable tropical Atlantic(Indian)Ocean SST anomalies tend to co-occur with the summertime Nino3.4 SST anomalies.The concurrent tropical Atlantic(Indian)Ocean SST anomalies could constructively reinforce(destructively mitigate)the WNP monsoon circulation anomalies induced by the summertime Nino3.4 SST,thus boosting(muting)the correlation between summertime Nino3.4 SST and WNP monsoon.In addition,the faster decaying pace of preceding-winter El Nino after the 1990 s,which may have been mainly induced by the influences from the spring tropical North Atlantic SST anomalies,could also have contributed to the enhanced correlation between the summertime Nino3.4 index and WNP monsoon.These results suggest that the enhanced influences from the tropical Atlantic SST may have triggered the intensified correlation between summertime ENSO and WNP monsoon since the early 1990 s.

An enhanced influence of sea surface temperature in the tropical northern Atlantic on the following winter ENSO since the early 1980s

Previous studies have revealed a connection between springtime sea surface temperature （SST） in the tropical northern Atlantic （TNA） and the succeeding wintertime El Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO）. The present analysis demonstrates that the linkage between springtime TNA SST and the following ENSO experiences an obvious interdecadal change around the early 1980s, with the connection being weak before but significant after. After the early 1980s, springtime positive TNA SST anomalies induce an anomalous cyclone over the northeastern subtropical Pacific and an anomalous Walker circulation with a descending branch over the tropical central-eastern Pacific. This leads to anomalous cold SST in the northeastern Pacific and an anomalous anticyclone over the western-central tropical Pacific, with anomalous easterlies to the equatorward side. As such, springtime TNA SST anomalies are followed by wintertime ENSO after the early 1980s. In contrast, before the early 1980s, anomalous cold SST in the northeastern Pacific and related anomalous easterlies over the western-central tropical Pacific are weak, corresponding to springtime positive TNA SST anomalies and resulting in a weak linkage between springtimeTNA SST and the succeeding wintertime ENSO. Further investigation implies that the change in the TNA SST-ENSO relationship is probably due to a change in springtime mean precipitation over the tropical Atlantic and South America.

Influences of tropical circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies on extreme heat over Northeast Asia in the midsummer of 2018

A destructive extreme heat attacked Northeast Asia(NEA)in the midsummer of 2018,characterized by the average midsummer Tmax(daily maximum air temperature at 2 m)ranking first during the study period.The current study indicates that the cyclonic anomaly over the western North Pacific(WNP)was an important cause,which presents an anomaly of two standard deviations.The cyclonic anomaly over the WNP was accompanied by anomalous convection,which favored descending and anticyclonic anomalies over NEA through a local meridional cell.The anticyclonic anomaly over NEA corresponds to the northwestward extension of the WNP subtropical high and facilitated the occurrence of extreme heat.The tropical sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)presents a La Ni?a decaying episode,but the SSTA over the tropical Pacific and North Indian Ocean was weak in the summer.In contrast,the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean(SETIO)was obviously cool,which was the coolest after detrending.The SETIO cooling triggered a low-level southeasterly anomaly,which turned into a southwesterly after crossing the equator,due to the Coriolis force.The southwesterly anomaly extended eastwards and favored the cyclonic anomaly over the WNP.Meanwhile,the circulation anomalies over the SETIO and WNP were connected via a local meridional cell,with the ascending branch over the WNP.Moreover,the above mechanism also operates for the climate statistics,verifying the robust in?uence of the SETIO SSTA.Considering the consistency of the SETIO SSTA,it could be a potential predictor for the climate over the WNP and NEA.

Increased summer electric power demand in Beijing driven by preceding spring tropical North Atlantic warming

By using electric power data,observational station temperature data in Beijing,CN05.1 temperature data,ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data,and ERSST.v3 b sea surface temperature(SST) data,it is found that summer(JulyAugust) electric power demand in Beijing is remarkably positively correlated with the previous spring(MarchApril) tropical North Atlantic(TNA) SST anomaly(SSTA).The possible physical mechanism of the TNA SSTA affecting summer electric power in Beijing is also revealed.When a positive SSTA occurs in the TNA during spring,anomalous easterlies prevail over the tropical central Pacific,which can persist to the following summer.Trade winds are thus enhanced over the northern Pacific,which favors a strengthening of upwelling cold water in the tropical central-eastern Pacific.As a result,a negative SSTA appears in the central-eastern Pacific in summer,which means a La Nina event is triggered by the previous TNA SSTA through the Bjerknes feedback.During the La Nina event,an anomalous anticyclonic circulation occupies the northwestern Pacific.The southerly anomalies at the western edge of this anomalous anticyclone strengthen the transportation of warm and humid airflow from the low latitudes to North China,where Beijing is located,causing higher summer temperatures and increased electricity usage for air conditioning,and vice versa.The results of this study might provide a new scientific basis and dues for the seasonal prediction of summer electric power demand in Beijing.

Rainfall Variability Patterns in West Africa： Case of Cote d＇lvoire and Ghana

This study is focused first on the rainfall variability in C6te d＇Ivoire and in Ghana; second, on the determination of the climatic zones of these areas. Monthly rainfall heights recorded in 43 weather stations from 1964 to 2000 is carried out. This study suggests a sudivision in three climatic zones which are： the littoral zone that borders the tropical Atlantic, the center zone that is located in the central region of both countries, and the northern zone whose seasonal cycle is close to that of the Sahel of West Africa. The study of the interannual variability of the rainfall shows some patterns which are differently influenced by sea surface temperature. Such work could be useful for agricultural activities and to better quantify the role of the vegetation dynamics.

Sensitivity Difference in the Extratropical Atmosphere to Two Types of El Nio Events

A comparison of sensitivity in extratropical circulation in the Northern Hemisphere （NH） and Southern Hemisphere （SH） is conducted through observational analyses and diagnostic linear model experiments for two types of El Ni（n）o events,the traditional El Ni（n）o with the strongest warmth in the eastern tropical Pacific （EP El Ni（n）o） and the El Ni（n）o Modoki with the strongest warmth in the central tropical Pacific （CP El Ni（n）o）.It is shown that CP El Ni（n）o favors the occurrence of a negative-phase Northern Annular Mode （NAM）,while EP El Ni（n）o favors that of the Pacific-North American （PNA） pattern.In SH,both EP and CP El Ni（n）o induce a negative phase Southern Annular Mode （SAM）.However,the former has a greater amplitude,which is consistent with the stronger sea surface temperature （SST） warmth.The difference in the two types of El Ni（n）o events in NH may originate from the dependence of heating-induced extratropical response on the location of initial heating,which may be associated with activity of the stationary wave.In SH,the lack of sensitivity to the location of heating can be associated with weaker activity of the stationary wave therein.

Weakening of the biennial relationship between Central American and equatorial South American rainfall in recent decades

There is a rainfall variability biennial relationship between Central America （CA） and equatorial South America （ESA） over the tropical western hemisphere, which is known to have arisen due to the combined effects of ENSO and tropical North Atlantic （TNA） SST. Here, the authors report that this biennial rainfall relationship between CA and ESA has weakened remarkably since 2000, with weakening in both in-phase and out-of-phase rainfall transitions. The observed decadal changes in the biennial relationship between CA and ESA rainfall can be attributed to changes in the effects of ENSO and TNA SST since 2000, which may be associated with more frequent occurrences of the central Pacific or＇Modoki＇ type El Ni^o. The weakening of the association with ENSO for CA rainfall since 2000 might have given rise to the weakening of the in-phase rain transition from CA rainfall to the following ESA rainfall. The weakened linkage between boreal-winter ESA rainfall and the subsequent boreal-summer TNA SST since 2000 may have resulted in the weakening of the out- of-phase rainfall transition from boreal-winter ESA rainfall to the subsequent boreal-summer CA rainfall.

Effect of Sea Spray on the Numerical Simulation of Super Typhoon ‘Ewiniar’

To study the potential effect of sea spray on the evolution of typhoons,two kinds of sea spray flux parameterization schemes developed by Andreas (2005) and Andreas and Wang (2006) and Fairall et al. (1994) respectively are incorporated into the regional atmospheric Mesoscale Model version 3.6 (MM5V3) of Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) and the coupled atmosphere-sea spray modeling system is applied to simulate a Western Pacific super ty-phoon Ewiniar in 2006. The simulation results demonstrate that sea spray can lead to a significant increase in heat fluxes at the air-sea interface and the simulated typhoon’s intensity. Compared with the results without sea spray,the minimum sea level pressure reduces about 8hPa after taking account of sea spray by Fairall et al.’s parameterization (1994) and about 5hPa by Andreas’ (2005) and Andreas and Wang’s (2006) parameterization at the end of the model integration,while the maximum 10m wind speed increases about 17% and 15% on average,respectively,through the entire simulation time period. Taking sea spray into account also causes significant changes in Tropical Cyclone (TC) structure due to an enhancement of water vapor and heat transferred from the sea sur-face to the air; therefore,the center structure of the typhoon becomes more clearly defined and the wind speed around the typhoon eye is stronger in numerical experiments. The simulations show that different sea spray flux parameterizations make different modi-fications to the TC structure.

Galvanic Corrosion Behaviour of Aluminium 3004 and Copper in Tropical Marine Atmosphere

The galvanic corrosion behaviour of aluminium 3004 and copper with different area ratios were studied in the tropical marine atmosphere at Tuticorin harbour over a period of 426 days. The area ratios OfAAI： Acu, studied were l：l, 1：2, l：4, 1：8, 2：1, 4：1 ＆ 8：1. The galvanic corrosion behaviour of metals was studied in terms of relative increase in the corrosion rate of aluminium due to galvanic coupling with copper, relative decrease in the corrosion rate of copper due to galvanic coupling with aluminium, and the susceptibility of aluminium to pitting owing to galvanic coupling with copper, The galvanic potential and galvanic current of the system were monitored. Pits of different dimensions ranging from mild etchings to perforations were experienced on the borders and the surfaces of the interface of aluminium in contact with copper. The weathering parameters and the environmental pollutants which have a major role in influencing the galvanic corrosion of metals were also monitored. The corrosion products resulting from galvanic corrosion were analysed using XRD and the pitting on aluminium resulting from galvanic corrosion has been highlighted in terms of pit depth, size and density of pit, using a high resolution microscope.

Perturbed Solving Method for Interdecadal Sea-air Oscillator Model

A coupled system of the interdecadal sea-air oscillator model is studied. The E1 Nifio-southem oscillation （ENSO） atmospheric physics oscillation is an abnormal phenomenon involved in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. The oscillator model is involved with the variations of both the eastern and western Pacific anomaly pat- terns. This paper proposes an ENSO atmospheric physics model using a method of the perturbation theory. The aim is to create an asymptotic solving method for the ENSO model. Employing the perturbed method, the asymptotic solution of corresponding problem is obtained, and the asymptotic behaviour of the solution is studied. Thus we can obtain the prognoses of the sea surface temperature anomaly and related physical quantities.

Characteristics of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Their Influences on the Onset of South China Sea Summer Monsoon

The characteristics of sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） in the tropical oceans and their influences on the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） have been studied.The anomaly of SST in tropical Pacific Ocean exerts persistence impact for one to three months on atmospheric circulations.If the warm pool becomes anomalously warmer during an earlier period from February to April,the SCSSM breaks out earlier,and vice versa.Singular value decomposition （SVD） and composite analysis have shown that,in La Ni（n）a pattern,the convection over Western Pacific will occur earlier and be stronger than normal,which favors the convergence at a lower layer over Western Pacific,as well as the strengthening of upwelling branch of Walker circulation,leading to an earlier burst of westerly in the southern South China Sea.Moreover,the convection in Sumatra appears earlier than normal and favors the westerly evolution in eastern Indian Ocean,resulting in the splitting of the subtropical high belt and an early onset of SCSSM.However,the atmospheric circulation anomaly is reversed in El Ni（n）o pattern.

Weakened interannual variability of the contrast in rainfall between the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic since 2000

Recent studies suggest that the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation has weakened since 2000. In this study, the authors report that the interannual variability of the contrast in rainfall between the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic has also weakened remarkably since 2000, attributable to the weakened interannual variability in the zonal sea surface temperature gradient between the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic and in the associated equatorial low-level zonal wind across South America linking the two ocean basins. Diagnosis of a column-integrated moisture budget indicates that the weakening in the interannual variability of the contrast in rainfall is primarily attributable to the changes in moisture convergence associated with vertical motion. The results highlight the clear weakened interannual variability in the coupled equatorial Pacific-Atlantic climate system since 2000, including the Pacific El Nino, Atlantic Nino, equatorial zonal wind across South America, and rainfall over the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic.

Sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic during El Nino decaying years

Based on reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016,this study focuses on the sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly of the tropical North Atlantic(TNA)in El Nino decaying years.The TNA SST exhibits a clear warm trend during this period.The composite result for 10 El Nino events shows that the TNA SST anomaly reaches its maximum in spring after the peak of an El Nino event and persists until summer.In general,the anomaly is associated with three factors-namely,El Nino,the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),and a long-term trend,leading to an increase in local SST up to 0.4℃,0.3℃,and 0.35℃,respectively.A comparison between 1983 and 2005 indicates that the TNA SST in spring is affected by El Niño,as well as the local SST in the preceding winter,which may involve a long-term trend signal.In addition,the lead-lag correlation shows that the NAO leads the TNA SST by 2-3 months.By comparing two years with an opposite phase of the NAO in winter(i.e.,1992 and 2010),the authors further demonstrate that the NAO is another important factor in regulating the TNA SST anomaly.A negative phase of the NAO in winter will reinforce the El Nino forcing substantially,and vise versa.In other words,the TNA SST anomaly in the decaying years is more evident if the NAO is negative with El Nino.Therefore,the combined effects of El Nino and the NAO must be considered in order to fully understand the TNA SST variability along with a long-term trend.

A Potential High-Score Scheme for the Prediction of Atlantic Storm Activity

A new empirical approach for the seasonal prediction of annual Atlantic tropical storm number (ATSN) was developed using precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height data from the preceding January February and April May.The 2.5°×2.5° resolution reanalysis data from both the US National Center for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) were applied.The model was cross-validated using data from 1979 2002.The ATSN predictions from the two reanalysis models were correlated with the observations with the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) of 0.79 (NCEP/NCAR) and 0.78 (ECMWF) and the multi-year mean absolute prediction errors (MAE) of 1.85 and 1.76,respectively.When the predictions of the two models were averaged,the ACC increased to 0.90 and the MAE decreased to 1.18,an exceptionally high score.Therefore,this new empirical approach has the potential to improve the operational prediction of the annual tropical Atlantic storm frequency.

Physical Mechanism of the Impacts of the Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on the Decadal Change of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation

In this study,physical mechanism of the impacts of the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST)on decadal change of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation(SNAO)was explored using an atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM)developed at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics(ICTP).The simulation results indicate that the decadal warming of the SST over the tropical Atlantic after the late 1970s could have significantly enhanced the convection over the region.This enhanced convection would have strengthened the local meridional circulation over the Eastern Atlantic-North Africa-Western Europe region,exciting a meridional teleconnection.This teleconnection might have brought the signal of the tropical Atlantic SST to the Extratropics,consequently activating the variability of the eastern part of the SNAO southern center,which led to an eastward shift of the SNAO southern center around the late 1970s.Such physical processes are highly consistent with the previous observations.

Southern Ocean SST Variability and Its Relationship with ENSO on Inter-Decadal Time Scales

Empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis reveals a co-variability of Sea surface temperatures （SSTs） in the Southern Hemisphere （0°-60°S）. In the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans, there is a subtropical dipole pattern slanted in the southwest-northeast direction. In the South Pacific Ocean, a meridional tripole structure emerges, whose middle pole co-varies with the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans and is used in this study to track subtropical Pacific variability. The South Indian and Atlantic Ocean dipoles and the subtropical Pacific variability are phase-locked in austral summer. On the inter-decadal time scales, the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans weaken in amplitude after 1979/1980. No such weakening is found in the subtropical South Pacific Ocean. Interestingly, despite the reduced amplitude, the correlation of the Indian Ocean and Atlantic dipoles with E1 Nino and Southern Oscillation （ENSO） are enhanced after 1979/1980. The same increase in correlation is found for subtropical South Pacific variability after 1979/1980. These inter-decadal modulations imply that the Southern Hemisphere participates in part of the climate shift in the late 1970s. The correlation between Southern Hemisphere SST and ENSO reduces after 2000.