近海北上热带气旋特征及对华东沿海地区影响分析

使用常规观测、FY2C卫星云图、CIMSS气象卫星云图分析、2000—2012年台风路径、NCEP再分析等资料,统计了2000年以来近海北上的热带气旋(下面统称为NTC)对华东沿海地区的风雨影响,分析了NTC的路径、强度、结构等特征,以及与华东沿海地区的风雨的关系。结果表明NTC对华东沿海地区是否有较严重风雨影响,取决于其北上路径与沿海地区距离的远近、NTC的强度和范围大小。当NTC中心距离陆地<300 km,在124.5°E以西北上对华东沿海地区有较严重风雨影响,如果NTC强度在台风等级以上时会对上海产生较严重风雨影响。在125°E以东北上的NTC,强度在台风等级以下时对华东沿海地区影响较小。NTC在东海近海北上时,强台风、超强台风的强度是逐渐减弱的;较弱的台风或强热带风暴及热带风暴强度将维持或略有加强。NTC在东海近海北上时,当离沿海地区距离<300 km时,结构易变得非对称。强度强和范围大的NTC结构也易变得非对称。NTC结构变得非对称后其强度将进一步减弱。随着NTC北上海温逐渐降低,在NTC西部靠近陆地其水汽条件比东部差,NTC结构会变得不对称,NTC北上到较高纬度风的垂直切变一般会变大,NTC脱离赤道辐合带后其水汽输送条件变差等等都会使较强的NTC北上后减弱。另外,NTC与所处的高低空环境相互作用也会影响其强度变化。

海上油气田受热带气旋的影响分析及应对策略

近40年热带气旋对海上油气田造成影响的数量占其正式命名数量的一半,受影响最大的为南海东部油气田,时间主要集中在每年7-10月,其中强度为台风的热带气旋数量最多,占比25%。通过年际统计得出近10年超强台风对海上油气田造成影响数量有所提升,给海上油气田的热带气旋应对工作造成了很大压力,通过管理制度完善和技术能力提升两方面发力,逐步形成了一套行之有效的热带气旋应对策略。

CHARACTERISTICS OF INTENSITY CHANGE IN TROPICAL CYCLONES AFFECTING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FROM 1977 TO 2007

The best track data of tropical cyclones (TCs) provided by Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo for the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2007 are employed to study the spatiotemporal variations (for a period of 12 hours) and the rapid (slow) intensification (RI/SI) of TCs with different intensity. The main results are as follows. (1) Over this period, the tropical storms (TSs) and severe tropical storms (STSs) mostly intensify or are steady while the typhoons (TYs) mostly weaken. The stronger a TC is initially, the more observation of its intensification and the less its variability will be; the more observation of its weakening is, the larger its variability will be. (2) The TC intensifies the fastest at 0000 UTC while weakening the fastest at 1200 UTC. (3) In the intensifying state, TSs, STSs, and TYs are mainly active in the northeastern, central-eastern, and central SCS respectively. The weakening cases mainly distribute over waters east off Hainan Island and Vietnam and west off the Philippines. Some cases of TSs and STSs weaken over the central SCS. (4) The RI cases form farther south in contrast to the SI cases. The RI cases are observed in regions where there are weaker vertical shear and easterly components at 200 hPa. The RI cases also have stronger mid-and lower-level warm-core structure and smaller radii of 15.4 m/s winds. The SI cases have slightly higher SST.

STATISTICAL CLASSIFICATION AND CHARACTERISTICS ANALYSIS OF BINARY TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN

Using the 1949-2007 western North Pacific tropical cyclones (TCs) best-track data archived at the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration for the western North Pacific from 1949 to 2007,both the characteristics of binary and multiple TCs and samples of interactions among TCs and multi-TCs are identified and statistically analyzed.According to the various features of individual TC tracks and interacting tracks,seven distinct types are proposed to describe the binary system of TCs and their interaction samples.The mean trajectories of the west and east component of binary TCs in each type are obtained using a new cluster analysis technique.These types are then analyzed in terms of landfall process,occurrence seasonality,coexistent lifetime,especially the large-scale patterns of atmospheric circulation.Finally,typical steering flows and conceptual models of the binary TCs at different phases are established based on six-hourly flow maps of the binary system and the averages are determined of the mean steering flow of ten representative binary TCs.Then,typical steering flows and conceptual models at the beginning,middle and final phase in each type are established to describe the large-scale circulation patterns of the binary system interaction types.

STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON TROPICAL CYCLONES LANDFALL IN CHINA

With the data from the Tropical Cyclone Yearbooks between 1970 and 2001, statistical analyses were performed to study the climatic features of landfall TCs （noted as TCs hereafter） in China with particular attention tbcused on landfall frequency, locations, sustaining, decaying, transition, intensification and dissipation etc. The results indicate that the sustaining periods of TC over land are quite different for different landfall spots, and increased from Guangxi to Zhejiang. The most obvious decreasing of TC intensity occurs mainly within 12 hours after landfall. The stronger a TC is, the more it decays, The areas over which TCs are dissipated can be in Heilongjiang, the northernmost, and Yunnan, the westernmost. Besides, Guangxi is an area with high dissipating rate and subject to TC dissipation as compared with the other coastal regions.

EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENTAL FIELD ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AFTER LANDFALL FROM EAST CHINA SEA

The past few years have seen work on the maintenance and decaying mechanisms of tropical cyclones （TCs） over land. Statistic study has been on the landfall frequency and location of TCs and their maintenance, decaying, transition, intensification and dissipation for the past 32 years and that （1） the deeper water accumulates on land, the more favorable it would be for the maintenance of low pressures and vast lakes, and the surface of large rivers and large- sized reservoirs can slow down the decaying of TC lows, （2） the descending and intrusion of cold air from mid- and upper- tropospheric and warm advection from lower troposphere are responsible for TCs transition; and （3） after landfall, TCs tend to accelerate towards areas of intense convection to the northwest, etc. Being mainly numerical simulation and diagnostic analyses for cases covering much detail and depth, most of the studies cannot tell anything in common about how TCs maintain and decay over land. There has been little work on the difference of land track of TCs, which travel with the underlying surface changing from sea to land. The energy supply from the tropical ocean is severely reduced or completely cut off on the one hand, rough land surface is both a blocking and frictional force for TCs to dissipate their energy on the other. In fact, landfall TCs can either maintain for only a few hours and cover a distance of less than 100 km or stay active tbr more than 100 hours and go as farther away as a few thousand km inland. Why do they differ so much？ Why do TCs follow routes that differ dramatically when they land at or near the same sites with identical or similar underlying surface？ It is obvious that the environmental field is one of the essential factors for TCs after landfall. The aim of this paper is to discuss the effect of the environmental field on TCs track over land and to know whicch, synoptic systems or factors play key roles in it so as to provide basis for the forecasting of land track of TCs after landfall.

STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALLS AND PASSING THROUGH LAKES IN CHINA

By using the data of 1949 – 2001 (53 years) of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Yearbooks, statistical analyses are performed to study the climatic features of TCs making landfall and then passing through lakes (hereafter referred to as "L-TCs") in China. Results show that L-TCs can sustain a long time over land and the intensity is very strong during the course of landfall. Lakes can noticeably slow down the reduction of TC intensity, with the minimum pressure mostly maintained or decreased and the maximum velocity increased. The middle reach of the Yangtze River has the biggest TC dissipating rate as compared with the other areas where the TC is active.

THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION I:USING A PRIMITIVE EQUATION BAROTROPIC MODEL

Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) motion was studied using a primitive equation barotropic model by perturbing initial position and structure for 1979 1993 TC. The results show that TC initial position perturbation affects its track, but the ensemble mean is close to control forecast. Experiments was also performed by perturbing TC initial parameters which were used to generate TC initial field, and more improvement can be obtained by taking ensemble mean of selective member than selecting members randomly. The skill of 60 % 70 % of all cases is improved in selective ensemble mean. When the ambient steering current is weak, more improvement can be obtained over the control forecast.