汛期气候预测难在哪里

本文提出中国汛期气候预测的不稳定性 ,是由于重视了热带洋面加热而忽视了高纬地区对大气冷却的结果。文中通过三个方面的事实论证了这一观点。

鸦片的包装

鸦片战争前,中国烟毒泛滥。英国不法商人对华走私的鸦片,产自印度。印度酷热多雨。载有鸦片的商船经印度洋,过马六甲海峡,入南海,在热带洋面上得航行数十天,为保存、运输好鸦片,鸦片制造商精心包装鸦片,“把鸦片装入为便于偷运而特制的箱子”。产于印度东部孟加拉地区的鸦片名为“公斑土”(按;有些史书写成“公班土”),装放的“箱子是用芒果木制成的,分两层,每层有二十格,每箱共四十格。浓缩烟浆制成实体圆球之后,包以罂粟花瓣(按:鸦片的原料为罂粟果汁)和劣质烟浆制成的硬壳,垫以干罂粟叶,然后放入格内,每箱放满四十个烟球。

科普天地

蔬菜是人类日常生活中必不可缺的副食品,是人体所需营养物质的重要来源,同时,蔬菜也有其明显的药用保健作用。 下面简要介绍一些常用蔬菜的保健作用: 一、韭菜:性味甘、辛、温、具有健胃提神、止汗固涩的作用;它所含有的挥发性精油及硫化物更具有降低血脂的作用。 二、菜豆:性味甘、平,有温中下气、益肾补元的功效,主治虚寒呃逆、呕吐、腹胀、肾虚、腰痛、痰喘。

在大洋风浪区中航行

提起中国的南海、非洲的好望角和法国的比斯开湾,海员们都不陌生,特别是这里的风浪会给各国的船员留下深刻的印象。南海险遇台风南海地处太平洋、印度洋、亚洲大陆和澳大利亚大陆之间的航海要冲,是我国通向东南亚及西方的水上必由之路,同时也是举世闻名的台风肆虐区。台风是发生在热带洋面的极猛烈的热带气旋。

话说龙卷风

台风与龙卷风说起风灾,人们就会想到台风和龙卷风。在热带、副热带洋面上生成的低压涡旋统称为热带气旋,根据其中心附近的最大平均风力的大小可分成四级,台风是其中最强烈的一级,风力≥12级,即风速≥32.7米/秒。台风影响范围大,造成灾情严重。台风的规律性较强,较易预报,能够及时防范。台风的直径一般为400～800公里,台风眼为30～50公里。龙卷风又称龙卷,前者为俗称,多用于传播媒体的新闻报道,后者为学名,多见于气象学术文章。龙卷风是另一种极猛烈的低压涡旋,与台风相比。

Sea surface height variations in the Mindanao Dome region in response to the northern tropical Pacific winds

Sea surface height (SSH) variability in the Mindanao Dome (MD) region is found to be one of the strong variations in the northern Pacific. It is only weaker than that in the Kuroshio Extension area, and is comparable to that in the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent region. Based on a 1.5-layer reduced gravity model, we analyzed SSH variations in this region and their responses to northern tropical Pacific winds. The average SSH anomaly in the region varies mainly on a seasonal scale, with significant periods of 0.5 and 1 year, ENSO time scale2-7years, and time scale in excess of 8 years. Annual and long-term variabilities are comparably stronger. These variations are essentially a response to the northern tropical Pacific winds. On seasonal and ENSO time scales, they are mainly caused by wind anomalies east of the region, which generate westward-propagating, long Rossby waves. On time scales longer than 8 years, they are mostly induced by local Ekman pumping. Long-term SSH variations in the MD region and their responses to local winds are examined and discussed for the first time .

Features of Ocean Surface Winds Observed by the QuikSCAT Satellite Before Tropical Cyclogenesis over the South China Sea

Ocean surface winds observed by the Quick Scatterometer(QuikSCAT) satellite prior to the geneses of 36 tropical cy-clones(TCs) in the South China Sea(SCS) are investigated in this paper. The results show that there are areas with negative mean horizontal divergence around the TC genesis locations three days prior to TC formation. The divergence term [-(f+ζ)(u/x+v/y) ] in the vorticity equation is calculated based upon the QuikSCAT ocean surface wind data. The calculated mean divergence term is about 10.3 times the mean relative vorticity increase rate around the TC genesis position one day prior to TC genesis,which shows the important contributions of the divergence term to the vorticity increase prior to TC formation. It is suggested that criteria related with the divergence and divergence term be applied in early detections of tropical cyclogenesis using the QuikSCAT satellite data.

A Method for Improving Simulation of PNA Teleconnection Interannual Variation in a Climate Model

The climate modeling community has been challenged to develop a method for improving the simulation of the Pacific-North America （PNA） teleconnection pattern in climate models. The accuracy of PNA teleconnection simulation is significantly improved by considering mesoscale convection contributions to sea surface fluxes. The variation in the PNA over the past 22 years was simulated by the Grid Atmospheric Model of lAP LASG version 1.0 （GAMIL1.0）, which was guided by observational SST from January 1979 to December 2000. Results show that heating in the tropical central-eastern Pacific is simulated more realistically, and sea surface latent heat flux and precipitation anomalies are more similar to the reanalysis data when mesoscale enhancement is considered during the parameterization scheme of sea surface turbulent fluxes in GAMIL1.0. Realistic heating in the tropical central-eastern Pacific in turn significantly improves the simulation of interannual variation and spatial patterns of PNA.

Rainfall Variability Patterns in West Africa： Case of Cote d＇lvoire and Ghana

This study is focused first on the rainfall variability in C6te d＇Ivoire and in Ghana; second, on the determination of the climatic zones of these areas. Monthly rainfall heights recorded in 43 weather stations from 1964 to 2000 is carried out. This study suggests a sudivision in three climatic zones which are： the littoral zone that borders the tropical Atlantic, the center zone that is located in the central region of both countries, and the northern zone whose seasonal cycle is close to that of the Sahel of West Africa. The study of the interannual variability of the rainfall shows some patterns which are differently influenced by sea surface temperature. Such work could be useful for agricultural activities and to better quantify the role of the vegetation dynamics.

Distribution of the tropical Pacific surface zonal wind anomaly and its relation with two types of El Nio

E1 Nino events with an eastern Pacific pattern （EP） and central Pacific pattern （CP） were first separated using rotated empirical orthogonal functions （REOF）. Lead/lag regression and rotated singular value decomposition （RSVD） analyses were then carried out to study the relation between the surface zonal wind （SZW） anomalies and sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies in the tropical Pacific. A possible physical process for the CP E1 Nifio was proposed. For the EP E1 Nino, strong westerly anomalies that spread eastward continuously produce an anomalous ocean zonal convergence zone （ZCZ） centered on about 165°W. This SZW anomaly pattern favors poleward and eastward Sverdrup transport at the equator. For the CP E1Nino, westerly anomalies and the ZCZ are mainly confined to the western Pacific, and easterly anomalies blow in the eastern Pacific. This SZW anomaly pattern restrains poleward and eastward Sverdrup transport at the equator; however, there is an eastward Sverdrup transport at about 5°N, which favors the wanning of the north-eastern tropical Pacific. It is found that the slowness of eastward propagation of subsurface warm water （partly from the downwelling caused by Ekman convergence and the ZCZ） is due to the slowdown of the undercurrent in the central basin, and vertical advection in the central Pacific may be important in the formation and disappearance of the CP E1 Nifio.

Movements of the Western Pacific Warm Pool Centroid and Their Relationship to Sea Surface Temperature Changes in Nino Regions

By using monthly historical sea surface temperature (SST) data for the yearsfrom 1950 to 2000, the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) climatology and anomalies are studied inthis paper. The analysis of WPWP centroid (WPWPC) movement anomalies and the Nino-3 region SSTanomalies(SSTA) seems to reveal a close, linear relation between the zonal WPWPC and Nino-3 regionSSTA, which suggests that a 9° anomaly of the zonal displacement from the climatological positionof the WPWPC corresponds to about a 1℃ anomaly in the Nino-3 region area-mean SST. This studyconnects the WPWPC zonal displacement with the Nino-3 SSTA, and it may be helpful in betterunderstanding the fact that the WPWP eastward extension is conducive to the Nino-3 region SSTincrease during an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event.

MEAN SQUARE DEVIATION ANALYSIS OF INTERANNUAL SST VARIABILITY IN TROPICAL PACIFIC AND INDIAN OCEAN

Using the SST data series in tropical ocean (20N ~ 20S, 50E ~ 80W) during 1951 ~ 1997 to calculate its monthly mean square deviation, the work obtains results showing that interannual SST variability of the Pacific is more significant than that of the Indian Ocean, especially near the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (165W～90W, 6N～6S), where it ranges from 2C to 4C. The interannual SST variability is obvious in November and December but small in March and April. The interannual variability of 搘arm pool?SST is not so obvious as that of the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, interannual SST variability of the Indian Ocean ranges from 1C to 2C or so, being smaller than that of the Pacific. In the Indian Ocean, interannual SST variability of the Southern Hemisphere is more obvious than that of the Northern Hemisphere. According to above characteristics of interannual SST variability, the key sectors are determined.

INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF ATMOSPHERIC HEAT SOURCES AND MOISTURE SINKS OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND THEIR RELATIONS TO THE SST ANOMALIES

The interannual variations of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks over the Equatorial Pacific and their relations with the SST anomalies are studied using ECMWF reanalysis data from 1979 to 1993. It is found by singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis that the region in the tropical Pacific with high positive correlation between the vertically integrated heat source <Q1> anomaly and the SST anomaly, and between the vertically integrated moisture sink <Q2> anomaly and the SST anomaly, is mainly located in a long and narrow belt to the east of 170 °E between 5 °S and 5 °N. The analysis of the vertical structure of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks shows that the interannual variations of Q1, Q2 and SST in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are strongly and positively correlated in the whole troposphere except the bottom (962.5 hPa) and the top (85 hPa) layers. However, in the western Pacific, the interannual variations of Q1 below 850 hPa is negatively related to the SST. The correlation coefficient at the level 962.5 hPa reaches even –0.59. In other layers the positive correlation between the interannual variations of Q1, Q2 and the SST are weak in the western Pacific.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF MERIDIONAL WIND ANOMALIES IN TROPICAL PACIFIC AND SSTA

The Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method is used to conduct studies of periodicity of the SST and meridional winds in tropical Pacific Ocean. The results show that the air-sea system for the Pacific varies on quasi-4-year, quasi-2-year and interannual scales, with the quasi-4-year scale having the highest variability. Depending on the scale, the wind field has a varying degree of association with the SST anomalies. Difference is also found in the evolution of phase. In addition, the work discusses the difference in SSTA resulted from wind fields for quasi-4-year and quasi-2-year components.

Meridional Variation of the 1955-2003 Sea Level Anomalies in the Tropical Pacific Ocean Associated with El Nio Events

The Sea Level Anomaly-Torque （SLAT, relative to a reference location in the Pacific Ocean）, which means the total torque of the gravity forces of sea waters with depths equal to the Sea Level Anomaly （S/A） in the tropical Pacific Ocean, is defined in this study. The time series of the SLAT from merged altimeter data （1993-2003） had a great meridional variation during the 1997-1998 E1 Nifio event. By using historical upper layer temperature data （1955-2003） for the tropical Pacific Ocean, the temperature-based SLAT is also calculated and the meridional variation can be found in the historical E1 Nifio events （1955-2003）, which suggests that the meridional shifts of the sea level anomaly are also intrinsic oscillating modes of the E1 Nifio cycles like the zonal shifts.

Tropical Pacific Decadal Oscillation in Subsurface Ocean Temperature

This study utilizes a new monthly-assimilated sea temperature and analyzes trend and decadal oscillations in tropical Pacific 100 200 m subsurface ocean temperature (SOT) from 1945 to 2005 on the basis of the harmonic analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) methods.Significant cooling trends in the SOT in the tropical western Pacific were found over this 60-year period.The first EOF of the SOT in tropical Pacific displays an ENSO-like zonal dipole pattern on decadal time scale,and we considered this pattern in subsurface ocean temperature the tropical Pacific decadal oscillation (TPDO).Our analysis suggests that TPDO is closely correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) in the surface sea temperature (SST).The correlation coefficient between the indices of TPDO and PDO is +0.81 and reaches a maximum of +0.84 when TPDO lags behind PDO by 2 months.Therefore,a change of TPDO is likely related to the variation of PDO.The long-term change in TPDO best explains decadal warming in the tropical eastern Pacific SST and implies potential impact on the weakening of East Asian summer monsoons after the late 1970s.

Impacts of tropical cyclone inflow angle on ocean surface waves

The inflow angle of tropical cyclones （TC） is generally neglected in numerical studies of ocean surface waves induced by TC. In this study, the impacts of TC inflow angle on ocean surface waves were investigated using a high-resolution wave model. Six numerical experiments were conducted to examine, in detail, thc effects of inflow angle on mean wave parameters and the spectrum of wave directions. A comparison of the waves simulated in these experiments shows that inflow angle significantly modifies TC-induced ocean surface waves. As the inflow angle increases, the asymmetric axis of the significant wave height （SWH） field shifts 30° clockwise, and the maximum SWH moves from the front-right to the rear-right quadrant. Inflow angle also affects other mean wave parameters, especially in the rear-left quadrant, such as the mean wave direction, the mean wavelength, and the peak direction. Inflow angle is a key factor in wave models for the reproduction of double-peak or multi-peak patterns in the spectrum of wave directions. Sensitivity experiments also show that the simulation with a 40° inflow angle is the closest to that of the NOAA statistical SLOSH inflow angle. This suggests that 40° can be used as the inflow angle in future TC-induced ocean surface wave simulations when SLOSH or observed inflow angles are not available.

Preliminary Studies on Predicting the Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature through Combined Statistical Methods and Dynamic ENSO Prediction

The sea surface temperature （SST） in the In- dian Ocean affects the regional climate over the Asian continent mostly through a modulation of the monsoon system. It is still difficult to provide an a priori indication of the seasonal variability over the Indian Ocean. It is widely recognized that the warm and cold events of SST over the tropical Indian Ocean are strongly linked to those of the equatorial eastern Pacific. In this study, a statistical prediction model has been developed to predict the monthly SST over the tropical Indian Ocean. This model is a linear regression model based on the lag relationship between the SST over the tropical Indian Ocean and the Nino3.4 （5°S-5°N, 170°W-120°W） SST Index. The pre- dictor （i.e., Nino3.4 SST Index） has been operationally predicted by a large size ensemble E1 Nifio and the Southern Oscillation （ENSO） forecast system with cou- pled data assimilation （Leefs_CDA）, which achieves a high predictive skill of up to a 24-month lead time for the equatorial eastern Pacific SST. As a result, the prediction skill of the present statistical model over the tropical In- dian Ocean is better than that of persistence prediction for January 1982 through December 2009.

Reducing Environmental Impact of Aggregate Excavation in Small Tropic Pacific Islands

Excavating sands and gravel on land in combination with constructing reservoirs for storing fresh water is an ideal approach in atolls. Appropriate mining of gravel from the prograding gravel beach is acceptable. Digging reef rock close to the edge of the wide ocean reef flat without surface loose sediments on it or sand beach can be accepted. Excavating sand from some depths in lagoon is a scientific approach particularly important for urbanized atolls. However, selecting appropriate sites for mining sand other than at some depths in lagoon is suitable to rural islands without dense populations. These sites include up drift side of long groin on the reef flat, partly filled access channel-port, outlet of artificial channel and lagoon margin on the prograding coast.

Interannual variations of surface winds over China marginal seas

In a study of surface monsoon winds over the China marginal seas, Sun et al. （2012） use singular value decomposition method to identify regional dominant modes and analyze their interdecadal variability. This paper continues to evaluate the interannual variability of each dominant mode and its relation to various atmospheric, oceanic and land factors. The findings include： 1） The intensity of the winter monsoon over the East China Sea is highly correlated with the Siberian High intensity and anti-correlated with the latitudinal position of the Aleutian Low as well as the rainfall in eastern China, Korean Peninsula and Japan; 2） The western Pacific subtropical high is significantly correlated with the summer monsoon intensity over the East China Sea and anti-correlated with the summer monsoon over the South China Sea; 3） The winter monsoon in a broad zonal belt through the Luzon Strait is dominated by the ENSO signal, strengthening in the La Nifia phase and weakening in the E1 Nifio phase. This inverse relation exhibits interdecadal shift with a period of weak correlation in the 1980s; 4） Analysis of tidal records validates the interdecadal weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon and reveals an atmospheric bridge that conveys the ENSO signal into the South China Sea via the winter monsoon.