To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 polici...To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations. By analyzing the energy consumptions, coal consumptions, relating emissions and their impacts on GDP, we found that with the structure adjustment policy, the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53% to 48% and CO2 emissions will decrease by 11.3%-22.8% compared to the baseline scenario. With the energy intensity reduction policy, CO2 emissions will decrease by 33.3% in 2030 and 47.8% in 2050 than baseline scenario. Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects. In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control, the economic costs can not be ignored. The GDP will decrease by 2.96%-8.23% under different scenarios. Therefore, integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.展开更多
In recent years, there have been considerable developments in energy provision with the growing improvements in energy supply security and support systems in China. However, China's energy system continues to reta...In recent years, there have been considerable developments in energy provision with the growing improvements in energy supply security and support systems in China. However, China's energy system continues to retain a high-carbon feature where coal dominates energy production and consumption, which has led to the rapid growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated serious environmental pollution. It has therefore become an important task for China to consider how to promote the low-carbon development of energy system. This paper summarized the basic trends and challenges for development of low-carbon energy system in China and studied the primary energy consumption and carbon emissions in different scenarios at 10-year intervals between 2010 and 2050. The analysis showed that controlling coal consumption will have an important influence on the control of total carbon emissions and of carbon emission peaking; promotion of non-fossil fuel energies will offer a growing contribution to a low-carbon transition in the medium and long term; the development of carbon capture, utilization, and storage will play a key role in realizing a deep decarbonization pathway, particularly after 2030; and the establishment of a low-carbon power system is crucial for the achievement of low-carbon energy transition. Finally, the strategic considerations and policy suggestions on the development of low-carbon energy systems in China are explored.展开更多
The data on the coal production and consumption in Jilin Province for the last ten years were collected,and the Grey System GM( 1,1) model and unary linear regression model were applied to predict the coal consumption...The data on the coal production and consumption in Jilin Province for the last ten years were collected,and the Grey System GM( 1,1) model and unary linear regression model were applied to predict the coal consumption of Jilin Production in 2014 and 2015. Through calculation,the predictive value on the coal consumption of Jilin Province was attained,namely consumption of 2014 is 114. 84 × 106 t and of 2015 is 117. 98 ×106t,respectively. Analysis of error data indicated that the predicted accuracy of Grey System GM( 1,1) model on the coal consumption in Jilin Province improved 0. 21% in comparison to unary linear regression model.展开更多
In contrast to a traditional coal-fired power generation plant where steam extracted from a turbine is used to preheat the feedwater in all preheating stages, a solar-aided power generation(SAPG) plant uses solar heat...In contrast to a traditional coal-fired power generation plant where steam extracted from a turbine is used to preheat the feedwater in all preheating stages, a solar-aided power generation(SAPG) plant uses solar heat to replace a part or all of the extracted steam in one or more preheating stages. The performance of an SAPG plant with different replacements is investigated in this study by using specific consumption theory(SCT). Fuel-specific and cost-specific consumption models for SAPG plants are built based on the SCT. A typical 330 MW coal-fired power plant is used as the study case. The performance of the SAPG plant in terms of specific consumption, with steam obtained from the first through the eighth(except for the fourth) stages of extraction replaced by solar heat, is compared with that of the reference coal-fired power plant. The fuel-specific consumption of the SAPG plant is determined to be lower than that of the reference coal-fired power plant. The fuel-specific consumption accrual distribution in SAPG plants is used to assess the effect of each individual replacement. Effective strategies to reduce the specific costs of the SAPG and coal-fired power plants are proposed based on the results of this study.展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Fund of China(71173206)the Strategic Priority Research ProgramdClimate Change:Carbon Budget and Related Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA05150300)
文摘To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations. By analyzing the energy consumptions, coal consumptions, relating emissions and their impacts on GDP, we found that with the structure adjustment policy, the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53% to 48% and CO2 emissions will decrease by 11.3%-22.8% compared to the baseline scenario. With the energy intensity reduction policy, CO2 emissions will decrease by 33.3% in 2030 and 47.8% in 2050 than baseline scenario. Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects. In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control, the economic costs can not be ignored. The GDP will decrease by 2.96%-8.23% under different scenarios. Therefore, integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.
文摘In recent years, there have been considerable developments in energy provision with the growing improvements in energy supply security and support systems in China. However, China's energy system continues to retain a high-carbon feature where coal dominates energy production and consumption, which has led to the rapid growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated serious environmental pollution. It has therefore become an important task for China to consider how to promote the low-carbon development of energy system. This paper summarized the basic trends and challenges for development of low-carbon energy system in China and studied the primary energy consumption and carbon emissions in different scenarios at 10-year intervals between 2010 and 2050. The analysis showed that controlling coal consumption will have an important influence on the control of total carbon emissions and of carbon emission peaking; promotion of non-fossil fuel energies will offer a growing contribution to a low-carbon transition in the medium and long term; the development of carbon capture, utilization, and storage will play a key role in realizing a deep decarbonization pathway, particularly after 2030; and the establishment of a low-carbon power system is crucial for the achievement of low-carbon energy transition. Finally, the strategic considerations and policy suggestions on the development of low-carbon energy systems in China are explored.
基金Supported by project of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41272360)
文摘The data on the coal production and consumption in Jilin Province for the last ten years were collected,and the Grey System GM( 1,1) model and unary linear regression model were applied to predict the coal consumption of Jilin Production in 2014 and 2015. Through calculation,the predictive value on the coal consumption of Jilin Province was attained,namely consumption of 2014 is 114. 84 × 106 t and of 2015 is 117. 98 ×106t,respectively. Analysis of error data indicated that the predicted accuracy of Grey System GM( 1,1) model on the coal consumption in Jilin Province improved 0. 21% in comparison to unary linear regression model.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China("973"Project)(Grant No.2015CB251505)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51206049)+2 种基金the National Hi-Tech Research and Development Program of China("863"Project)(2012AA050604)the 111 Project(Grant No.B12034)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.2014XS29)
文摘In contrast to a traditional coal-fired power generation plant where steam extracted from a turbine is used to preheat the feedwater in all preheating stages, a solar-aided power generation(SAPG) plant uses solar heat to replace a part or all of the extracted steam in one or more preheating stages. The performance of an SAPG plant with different replacements is investigated in this study by using specific consumption theory(SCT). Fuel-specific and cost-specific consumption models for SAPG plants are built based on the SCT. A typical 330 MW coal-fired power plant is used as the study case. The performance of the SAPG plant in terms of specific consumption, with steam obtained from the first through the eighth(except for the fourth) stages of extraction replaced by solar heat, is compared with that of the reference coal-fired power plant. The fuel-specific consumption of the SAPG plant is determined to be lower than that of the reference coal-fired power plant. The fuel-specific consumption accrual distribution in SAPG plants is used to assess the effect of each individual replacement. Effective strategies to reduce the specific costs of the SAPG and coal-fired power plants are proposed based on the results of this study.
