二维动力—物理气候模式的建立和发展

叙述了二维动力—物理气候模式的形成和发展,并用其作了两种敏感性试验。讨论了两种辐射计算方案的结果差别对纬向环流变化的作用,以及研究经向涡动动量通量在东亚季风形成过程中的作用。

基于学习通的“物理气候学”混合式教学研究

超星学习通是移动互联网背景下开发的混合式教学工具,具有良好的教学互动功能,在提高教学效果方面具有重要作用。以兰州大学大气科学专业基础课“物理气候学”为对象,针对当前存在的问题,基于学习通平台着重改进了课前、课堂、课后的教学环节。实践证明,这种教学模式激发了学生的学习积极性,养成在讨论中深入思考的习惯,较大幅度地提升了教学质量。

量化气候变化对海洋碳汇的物理影响

在海洋表面,二氧化碳在大气和海洋之间发生交换。近几十年来,海洋的二氧化碳吸收量随着大气中二氧化碳含量的上升而增加。除了大气中的二氧化碳浓度,物理气候变化也会影响海洋对二氧化碳的吸收,但其幅度和驱动过程尚不清楚。

气候冲击下金融风险的研究进展和展望——基于物理风险和转型风险视角

本文从物理风险和转型风险两个视角综述了近年来关于气候风险对经济和金融体系影响的研究进展。在宏观经济层面,气候风险对经济增长和波动的影响显著。物理风险通过减少资本积累、降低劳动生产率,对经济增长产生负面影响;转型风险在短期内抑制经济产出和就业,但长期内通过推动低碳技术进步,有助于提升经济效率和产出。在微观经济层面,气候风险对企业生产经营和财务决策的影响广泛。气候物理风险可能导致企业市场估值下降、成本增加和盈利能力减弱;转型风险则通过影响企业融资成本和资产估值,形成“碳泡沫”并引发金融风险。金融机构方面,银行、保险和资管行业需在现有风险管理体系中纳入气候风险因素,以应对潜在的金融不稳定性。研究表明,气候风险敞口对金融机构资产负债表和经营稳定性构成重要威胁。在梳理现有文献的基础上,本文提出了多角度的气候风险测度方法,并探讨了气候风险对宏观经济波动、微观企业生产经营及金融机构稳定性的影响,最后对未来研究方向进行了展望。本文为进一步研究气候风险及其经济金融影响提供了有益的理论基础和实践参考。

气候物理风险对商业银行制造业信贷资产质量的影响研究——基于情景分析和压力测试方法

随着气候风险日益显现,金融机构面临的相关风险也在日益提升。本文着力研究气候物理风险对商业银行违约概率(PD)的压力传导机制,体现为压力情景刻画宏观经济或气候环境的恶化程度,通过建立模型捕捉的关联关系计算出假设压力情景下客户未来的违约概率(PD)。违约损失率(LGD)压力传导机制主要体现为将压力情景刻画宏观经济或气候环境的恶化程度通过模型捕捉的关联关系计算出风险参数押品价值的变化及回收情况的变化,进而得到客户承压后的违约损失率(LGD),进一步传导至不良贷款率(NPLR)。最后基于传导分析结果为商业银行的可持续发展提供切实可行的对策建议。

7－9月兰州高压气候物理特征分析

一次降水过程中有没有兰州高压生成，会直接影响到兰州降水预报的成败。该文给出了７－９月兰州高压的气候统计特征，分析了一次兰州高压生消时的物理量场变化，提出了初步预报其生消的思路。

气候物理风险对实体行业与金融体系间风险交互溢出效应的影响研究

本文基于DCC—GARCH的动态溢出指数模型,考察了2011—2022年气候物理风险冲击下实体行业和金融体系间风险交互溢出效应的方向与大小,并使用面板模型分析了气候物理风险对二者间风险交互溢出效应的影响及作用机制。研究发现:第一,气候物理风险事件下金融受实体风险输入的水平相对较高,且金融对实体风险输出的波动变化幅度高于金融受实体风险输入的波动变化幅度。第二,在自然灾害事件发生时,相较于事件发生前和发生后,样本行业间的关联性呈明显的增强趋势。第三,基准回归结果表明,气候物理风险的增加会显著提升实体行业和金融体系间的风险交互溢出水平。第四,气候物理风险主要通过增加实体企业的经营风险这一传导机制,提高实体行业和金融体系间风险交互溢出水平。在此基础上,本文分别为监管机构、金融机构与实体企业提供了有针对性的政策建议。

理论气候学中的几个基本问题

探讨了当前理论气候学中存在的几个基本问题，并初步阐述了开拓理论气候学研究的一些新方法和新手段。

地球系统模式发展展望

在调研国际国内气候系统模式的基础上,给出了地球系统模式的定义和它的3个发展阶段:物理气候系统模式、地球气候系统模式和地球系统模式,阐述了未来的地球系统模式发展的战略意义,介绍了国际国内围绕地球系统模式的发展所提出的科学研究计划,并基于政府间气候变化委员会第四次评估报告的参评模式,回顾了国内外地球系统模式发展现状与动态,展望了未来的可能发展方向,希望能对国内的地球气候系统模式发展有所帮助。

生物冰期避难所与冰期后的重新扩散

冰期 (尤其是更新世冰期 )对当今生物的空间分布格局和遗传结构产生了深远影响 ,研究生物冰期避难所对于了解不同生物区系间的关系、物种形成以及生物多样性保护具有十分重要的意义。生物冰期避难所的确定最初是根据特有种的分布、化石、孢粉等证据推测而来 ,分子遗传标记为冰期生物避难所以及冰期后重新扩散路线的研究提供了有力的工具。本文以北美和欧洲为例 ,介绍了分子遗传标记在生物避难所以及冰期后再扩散路线研究中的应用和一些结论。我国存在许多东西走向的大山 ,减缓了冰期时低温对生物的影响 ,为许多生物提供了避难场所 ,但我国有关研究开展得很少。最后 ,对我国该领域提出了应优先开展的研究方向。

迎接全球变化研究的新挑战

当前人类面临的重大全球变化问题,从实质来讲,涉及到地球系统的主要分量即大气圈、水圈、岩石圈和生物圈之间的相互作用,远远超过传统的、单一的学科界限。因此,仅从地球系统各分量的角度,孤立地进行研究,不足以揭示自然规律的实质和全貌。必须把大气圈、水圈、岩石圈看成是一个“系统”,从整体角度进行全球变化的研究。

The Spatial Patterns of Initial Errors Related to the “Winter Predictability Barrier” of the Indian Ocean Dipole

In this study, using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2pl （GFDL CM2pl） coupled model, the winter predictability barrier （WPB） is found to exist in the model not only in the growing phase but also the Indian Ocean dipole （IOD） decaying phase of positive events due to the effect of initial errors. In particular, the WPB is stronger in the growing phase than in the decaying phase. These results indicate that initial errors can cause the WPB. The domi- nant patterns of the initial errors that cause the occurrence of the WPB often present an eastern-western dipole both in the surface and subsurface temperature components. These initial errors tend to concentrate in a few areas, and these areas may represent the sensitive areas of the predictions of positive IOD events. By increasing observations over these areas and eliminating initial errors here, the WPB phenomenon may be largely weakened and the forecast skill greatly improved.

Key Issues on Cryospheric Changes,Trends and Their Impacts

On the basis of analyzing the importance of cryospheric researches in China and current status of cryospheric sciences in the world, this paper addresses key issues and main contents of present cryospheric sciences in China. The key issues currently addressed are： i） mechanisms of different types of glaciers in response to climate change and the scale-conversion in water resources assessments; ii） modeling of water and heat exchanges between frozen soil and vegetation; iii） parameterization of physical processes in cryosphere as well as coupling with climate models. To gain full clarification of these key issues, works of the following three aspects should be highlighted, i.e., cryospheric processes and responses to climate change, influences of cryospheric changes, and adaptation strategies for cryospheric changes.

Metagenomic approach revealed effects of forest thinning on bacterial communities in the forest soil of Mt. Janggunbong, South Korea

The soil microbiome that plays important ecological roles in mountains and forests is influenced by anthropogenic and natural causes.Human activity,particularly harvesting or thinning,affects the soil microbiome in forests by altering environmental conditions,such as vegetation,microclimate,and soil physicochemical properties.The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects on forest thinning on the diversity and composition of the soil bacterial community.From next-generation sequencing results of the 16S rRNA gene,we examined differences in soil bacterial diversity and community composition before and after thinning at Mt.Janggunbong,South Korea.We identified 40 phyla,103 classes,192 orders,412families,947 genera,and 3,145 species from the soil samples.Acidobacteria and Proteobacteria were the most dominant bacterial phyla in the forest soil of Mt.Janggunbong.Soil bacterial diversity measures(richness,Shannon diversity index,and evenness)at the phylum level increased after thinning,whereas species-level taxonomic richness decreased after thinning.Thinning provided new opportunities for bacterial species in Chloroflexi,Verrucomicrobia,Nitrospirae,and other nondominant bacterial taxa,especially for those not found in Mt.Janggunbong before thinning,to settle and adapt to the changing environment.Our results suggested that thinning affected the diversity and composition of soil bacterial communities in forests and mountains.

Comparison of convective parameterizations in RegCM4 experiments over China with CLM as the land surface model

in the latest version of the international Centre for Theoretical Physics＇ regional climate model, RegCM4, CLM was introduced as a new land surface scheme. The performance over China of RegCM4-CLM with different convection schemes is analyzed in this study, based on a series of short- term experiments.The model is driven by ERA-Interim data at a grid spacing of 25 km.The convection schemes employed are： Emanuel; Grell; Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean; Grell over land and Emanuel over ocean; and Tiedtke. The simulated mean surface air temperature and precipitation in December-February-January and June-July-August are compared against observation. In general, better performance of Emanuel is found both for temperature and precipitation, and in both seasons. Thus, the model physics of CLM and Emanuel for the land surface processes and convection, respectively, are recommended for further application of RegCM4 over the China region. The de^ciencies that remain in the model arealso outlined and discussed.

Distribution and diversity of microbial communities in meromictic soda Lake Doroninskoe(Transbaikalia,Russia) during winter

Meromictic soda and saline lakes are unique ecosystems characterized by the stability of physical,chemical and biological parameters,and they are distributed all over the world.Lakes located in regions with average annual negative air temperature are of particular interest because of the presence of two periods with intensive and dynamic processes:the so-called biological summer and the long ice season with the biological spring.Soda Lake Doroninskoe is located in Eastern Transbaikalia(51°14′N,112°14′E) in the permafrost zone in an extreme continental climate,and is covered by ice for seven months per year.The structure and diversity of the microbial communities throughout the water column of the lake was studied by 16 S r RNA gene amplicon metasequencing.Different species with specific functions were found to dominate at different depths.Metabolically flexible bacteria with a capacity to switch between anoxygenic photosynthesis and aerobic chemotrophic metabolism dominate in soda Lake Doroninskoe.

Paleosols from North Part of Barlad City （Romania）

The loess deposits comprise several paleosol layers reflecting alternation of drier and wetter climate during Quaternary. Such a situation occurs in north of Barlad, on The Sohodau＇s Hill. Morphological study of the quarry paleosols from north of Barlad was accomplished based on field observations and macroscopic physic-chemical results. Three levels of paleosols with variable thickness were determined. These three fossils layers are interbedded by four loess deposits. The physical-chimical data provide important information for the paleosol genesis and depositional/climatic environments. The carbon content and C/N ratio indicate the strength of pedogenesis in the Pleistocene and trends of biomass accumulation.

Coupling methods of global climate models and regional climate models

The future climate dynamical downscaling method is that output of general circulation models( GCMs) is employed to provide initial conditions,lateral boundary conditions,sea surface temperatures,and initial land surface conditions to regional climate models( RCMs). There are two methods of downscaling: offline coupling and online coupling. The two kinds of coupling methods are described in detail by coupling the Weather Research and Forecasting model( WRF) with the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of Chinese Academy of Sciences Atmospheric General Circulation Model Version 4. 0( IAP AGCM4. 0) in the study. And the extreme precipitation event over Beijing on July 212012 is simulated by using the two coupling methods. Results show that online coupling method is of great value in improving the model simulation. Furthermore,the data exchange frequency of online coupling has some effect on simulation result.

Energy Consumption, Thermal Performance and Thermal Comfort in Public School Buildings in Jordan

Good learning outputs in schools require an acceptable physical environment inside schools. Whatever the climatic context that surrounds any school buildings, energy flows of different types should be provided. Concerns may include thermal environment, luminous environment and acoustics environment. Types of energy used are an important variable that contributes to thermal comfort. Physical structure of the school building is another factor to be taken into consideration. This article established a relationship between thermal comfort inside schools and types of energy flows which have been consumed to maintain the level of comfort required, controlled by the building fabric and consequent economic factors that affect energy consumption of school buildings. Different approaches were applied in order to achieve the research objectives. Field surveys, field measurements and analyzing historical data were the most approaches followed to implement this study. The final outputs of this work have a national value nationwide： establishing a relationship among thermal comfort, energy flows and building fabric is of importance. Furthermore, it is of great importance to the decision maker for educational facilities. Research will also establish a wide platform based on scientific investigations for developing climate responsive school architecture in Jordan.

教与学导引(续)

天气指短时间内,大气的风、雨、阴、晴、冷热等物理现象和物理状态的综合状况。影响天气的主要因素是气团和锋面等。如昨天下雨,今天晴朗,就是指天气而言。气候指某个地区长时间内(一般约在30年以上)天气的平均状况,或者是某地区,长时间内大气的物理现象和物理综合状况,叫气候。通常用气温、降水、风、湿等气候要素,来反映某地的气候特征。气候可分为大气候、中气候和小气候。影响气候的主要因素是太阳辐射、大气环流、地面状况和人类活动等。如:北京的春旱;昆明的四季如春等都是形容气候状况的。