为了更全面、准确地分析天然气站场的系统整体可靠性,提出采用跨领域的网络流理论来分析天然气站场系统的整体可靠性,并对网络流理论做了归纳创新与适应性分析,通过最小路集与不交化算法计算出站场系统在正常工艺状态下的失效概率,然后...为了更全面、准确地分析天然气站场的系统整体可靠性,提出采用跨领域的网络流理论来分析天然气站场系统的整体可靠性,并对网络流理论做了归纳创新与适应性分析,通过最小路集与不交化算法计算出站场系统在正常工艺状态下的失效概率,然后创新性地提出基于危险与可操作性分析(hazard and operability analysis,HAZOP)确定站场系统在工艺参数偏差状态下的失效概率,分析偏差状态对于站场系统可靠性的影响,将其与正常工艺状态下的站场系统失效概率对比,从而更加全面地分析天然气站场系统的整体可靠性。结果表明:所提出的网络流分步法比网络流整体法分析站场系统的可靠性适应性更强,网络流分步法不存在必要通路不在最小路集内的问题,既能保证连通性又能保证满足工艺要求;正常工艺状态下该站的系统失效概率为4.9869×10^(-2),工艺参数偏差状态下该站的系统失效概率为5.8036×10^(-2),较正常工艺状态增大16.38%,两种状态下各子系统的失效概率数量级没有改变,大小排序也没有改变,因此该工艺参数偏差状态下建议各子系统排序不变,但对于各子系统中的设备需按各自失效概率增大的程度进行重点关注的调整,这对于天然气站场的实际生产运行与安全运行管理具有一定的指导意义。展开更多
Dimensional control is one of the most important challenges in the shipbuilding industry. In order to predict assembly dimensional variation in hull flat block construction, a variation stream model based on state spa...Dimensional control is one of the most important challenges in the shipbuilding industry. In order to predict assembly dimensional variation in hull flat block construction, a variation stream model based on state space was presented in this paper which can be further applied to accuracy control in shipbuilding. Part accumulative error, locating error, and welding deformation were taken into consideration in this model, and variation propagation mechanisms and the accumulative rule in the assembly process were analyzed. Then, a model was developed to describe the variation propagation throughout the assembly process. Finally, an example of fiat block construction from an actual shipyard was given. The result shows that this method is effective and useful.展开更多
We investigate perturbation for continuous-time Markov chains(CTMCs) on a countable state space. Explicit bounds on ?D and D are derived in terms of a drift condition, where ? and D represent the perturbation of the i...We investigate perturbation for continuous-time Markov chains(CTMCs) on a countable state space. Explicit bounds on ?D and D are derived in terms of a drift condition, where ? and D represent the perturbation of the intensity matrices and the deviation matrix, respectively. Moreover, we obtain perturbation bounds on the stationary distributions, which extends the results by Liu(2012) for uniformly bounded CTMCs to general(possibly unbounded) CTMCs. Our arguments are mainly based on the technique of augmented truncations.展开更多
文摘为了更全面、准确地分析天然气站场的系统整体可靠性,提出采用跨领域的网络流理论来分析天然气站场系统的整体可靠性,并对网络流理论做了归纳创新与适应性分析,通过最小路集与不交化算法计算出站场系统在正常工艺状态下的失效概率,然后创新性地提出基于危险与可操作性分析(hazard and operability analysis,HAZOP)确定站场系统在工艺参数偏差状态下的失效概率,分析偏差状态对于站场系统可靠性的影响,将其与正常工艺状态下的站场系统失效概率对比,从而更加全面地分析天然气站场系统的整体可靠性。结果表明:所提出的网络流分步法比网络流整体法分析站场系统的可靠性适应性更强,网络流分步法不存在必要通路不在最小路集内的问题,既能保证连通性又能保证满足工艺要求;正常工艺状态下该站的系统失效概率为4.9869×10^(-2),工艺参数偏差状态下该站的系统失效概率为5.8036×10^(-2),较正常工艺状态增大16.38%,两种状态下各子系统的失效概率数量级没有改变,大小排序也没有改变,因此该工艺参数偏差状态下建议各子系统排序不变,但对于各子系统中的设备需按各自失效概率增大的程度进行重点关注的调整,这对于天然气站场的实际生产运行与安全运行管理具有一定的指导意义。
基金Supported by the National Science Foundation of China （Granted No.70872076） and Science Innovation Action Planning of Shanghai 2011 （No.11dz1121803）.
文摘Dimensional control is one of the most important challenges in the shipbuilding industry. In order to predict assembly dimensional variation in hull flat block construction, a variation stream model based on state space was presented in this paper which can be further applied to accuracy control in shipbuilding. Part accumulative error, locating error, and welding deformation were taken into consideration in this model, and variation propagation mechanisms and the accumulative rule in the assembly process were analyzed. Then, a model was developed to describe the variation propagation throughout the assembly process. Finally, an example of fiat block construction from an actual shipyard was given. The result shows that this method is effective and useful.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11211120144)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.2010QYZD001)
文摘We investigate perturbation for continuous-time Markov chains(CTMCs) on a countable state space. Explicit bounds on ?D and D are derived in terms of a drift condition, where ? and D represent the perturbation of the intensity matrices and the deviation matrix, respectively. Moreover, we obtain perturbation bounds on the stationary distributions, which extends the results by Liu(2012) for uniformly bounded CTMCs to general(possibly unbounded) CTMCs. Our arguments are mainly based on the technique of augmented truncations.
