Pork in Taiwan has played an important role in terms of domestic consumption, production and price fluctuation in several decades. This study attempts to investigate the causal relationship between hog and feedstuff p...Pork in Taiwan has played an important role in terms of domestic consumption, production and price fluctuation in several decades. This study attempts to investigate the causal relationship between hog and feedstuff prices in Taiwan by using monthly time series over the period of January 2000 to October 2010. Prices from hog, feedstuff, soybean meal and corn are considered and performed through a multivariate vector autoregressive （VAR） model. As the empirical results, the long-run equilibrium is captured identifying price elasticity among the variables using the Johansen cointegration diagnosis. Then, the Granger causality approach shows that bidirectional relationship is detected running from feedstuff to corn and from soybean meal to hog as well as unidirectional relationship running from corn to hog, from feedstuff to hog and from soybean meal to feedstuff. In the conclusions, we point out to raw material prices of feedstuff, namely corn and soybean meal that have an importance to hog price as the cost of meat production. Pig farmers and policy-makers should understand the behavior of price interactions to manage the risks on hog market and to increase the profitability on suitable price.展开更多
In this paper,a prediction model on Chinese annual live hog supply was established.With cointegration test,backward and forward stochastic selection and other methods,four main factors(hog price,prices of inputs in ho...In this paper,a prediction model on Chinese annual live hog supply was established.With cointegration test,backward and forward stochastic selection and other methods,four main factors(hog price,prices of inputs in hog production,the level of hog inventory,as well as emergency and government policy) were chosen from 16 relevant factors to establish the model and make improvement.Applied the improved model,annual live hog supply in China from 2013 to 2016 was predicted in three scenarios.The predicted results showed that if there were no major emergencies from 2013 to 2016,there would be an upward trend in Chinese live hog supply year by year.The supply of live hogs in China in 2013 would be about 707.663 million head,in 2014 would be between 715.935 and 742.969 million head,in 2015 between 734.458 and 779.413 million head,and in 2016 between 750.923 and809.450 million head.展开更多
文摘Pork in Taiwan has played an important role in terms of domestic consumption, production and price fluctuation in several decades. This study attempts to investigate the causal relationship between hog and feedstuff prices in Taiwan by using monthly time series over the period of January 2000 to October 2010. Prices from hog, feedstuff, soybean meal and corn are considered and performed through a multivariate vector autoregressive （VAR） model. As the empirical results, the long-run equilibrium is captured identifying price elasticity among the variables using the Johansen cointegration diagnosis. Then, the Granger causality approach shows that bidirectional relationship is detected running from feedstuff to corn and from soybean meal to hog as well as unidirectional relationship running from corn to hog, from feedstuff to hog and from soybean meal to feedstuff. In the conclusions, we point out to raw material prices of feedstuff, namely corn and soybean meal that have an importance to hog price as the cost of meat production. Pig farmers and policy-makers should understand the behavior of price interactions to manage the risks on hog market and to increase the profitability on suitable price.
基金supported by the National Key Technology R&D Program under Grant No.2009BADA 9BB01-4the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71173210 and 61273208
文摘In this paper,a prediction model on Chinese annual live hog supply was established.With cointegration test,backward and forward stochastic selection and other methods,four main factors(hog price,prices of inputs in hog production,the level of hog inventory,as well as emergency and government policy) were chosen from 16 relevant factors to establish the model and make improvement.Applied the improved model,annual live hog supply in China from 2013 to 2016 was predicted in three scenarios.The predicted results showed that if there were no major emergencies from 2013 to 2016,there would be an upward trend in Chinese live hog supply year by year.The supply of live hogs in China in 2013 would be about 707.663 million head,in 2014 would be between 715.935 and 742.969 million head,in 2015 between 734.458 and 779.413 million head,and in 2016 between 750.923 and809.450 million head.
