基于随机前沿引力模型的玉米进口贸易影响因素分析

基于玉米贸易转变背景,利用2005—2019年我国与部分玉米进口来源国的相关数据,构建随机前沿引力模型,分析我国玉米进口的影响因素。结果表明,贸易双方各自的GDP、是否签署自由贸易协定、经济自由度指标、政府效率对我国玉米进口贸易产生正向影响。进一步得出我国与贸易国之间的玉米进口贸易效率及贸易潜力。进而提出具有针对性的政策建议。

进口扩大背景下中国玉米市场格局与议价能力演变

随着中国玉米供需缺口逐渐加大和国际外部环境不确定性的增加,如何提升中国在国际玉米市场上的议价能力具有重要现实意义。为测度中国在玉米国际贸易市场上的议价能力,本文基于双边随机前沿模型,从理论和实证两个方面对中国在国际玉米市场上的议价能力进行定性与定量分析。研究发现:①中国玉米进口数量上涨明显,对外依存度提高,且进口来源集中度较高;②中国在玉米国际市场上的议价能力长期低于玉米主要出口国,玉米进口价格高于理论进口价格;③长期以来,中国在与美国的玉米贸易中处于弱势地位,尤其是当中国进口来源过度集中于美国时,这种议价差距将进一步被放大。推动中国进口来源多元化,加快农业“走出去”步伐,建立可持续的粮食供应体系对提升中国在国际玉米市场的谈判能力和抵御风险能力大有裨益。

An Empirical Study on the Relationship Between China's Maize Price and Maize Import and Export Trade

Based on the time series of China’s maize trade and domestic maize price,the article analyzes the relationship between domestic maize price and China’s maize international trade by using empirical methods.The results show that there is a connection between domestic maize prices and China's maize international trade,but the link is not very close.Domestic maize price is the cause of China’s maize international trade change,but its impact is very limited;China's maize international trade also can make some difference on the domestic maize price.Based on the results of research,the article brings three suggestion and expectation to adjust China’s maize international trade and the cost control reasonably in order to stabilize domestic maize price and maize yield,and to protect domestic grain security.