利用景观信息分析和预测环境变化:扩展的基线观点——坦桑尼亚两个例子

这篇论文阐述了在环境影响评价(EIA)和发展方面为确定、评估和预测环境变化而重新进行景观分析的必要性。开始应把重点放在景观上,而不要集中在个别系统或过程上,这样做可以扩大研究范围,以不同的时空角度评价其变化,然后再集中研究各个特定地区或发展项目的关键问题。可将这种途径看作是一个过程而不是一种方法,它不光要求具有学科间的评价能力,还要求具有学科内的数据收集和评价的能力。这种科学能力、当地知识及区域环境研究经验的综合可以用来扩大评价的视角,提高预测能力。在两个坦桑尼亚的研究实例中,具体阐述了这种途径的应用。南部高地研究源自对建议的两个水力发电项目进行的可行性环境影响评价,而Babati研究是源自以前的土地管理方面的阶段性研究。这些研究都不得不从更广阔的视角来进行。在这两个例子中,他们的负责机构认为定义环境基线以评价土地利用和与环境变化有关的项目是非常必要的。然而,从我们的研究中得出的一个结论是:不存在这种环境方面的基线,而只有一种适合不同时空的扩展的基线,依据它,才能全面理解和预测环境变化及有关的社会变化。因此这种研究可以被看作是一种贡献——对于环境变化新的理解的贡献,而这种理解对战略性的环境影响评价和长期的自然资源利用规划来讲是必要的。

A Global-Scale Image Lossless Compression Method Based on QTM Pixels

In this paper, a new predictive model, adapted to QTM (Quaternary Triangular Mesh) pixel compression, is introduced. Our approach starts with the principles of proposed predictive models based on available QTM neighbor pixels. An algorithm of ascertaining available QTM neighbors is also proposed. Then, the method for reducing space complexities in the procedure of predicting QTM pixel values is presented. Next, the structure for storing compressed QTM pixel is proposed. In the end, the experiment on comparing compression ratio of this method with other methods is carried out by using three wave bands data of 1 km resolution of NOAA images in China. The results indicate that: 1) the compression method performs better than any other, such as Run Length Coding, Arithmetic Coding, Huffman Cod- ing, etc; 2) the average size of compressed three wave band data based on the neighbor QTM pixel predictive model is 31.58% of the origin space requirements and 67.5% of Arithmetic Coding without predictive model.

Health monitoring and comparative analysis of time-dependent effect using different prediction models for self-anchored suspension bridge with extra-wide concrete girder

The structural health status of Hunan Road Bridge during its two-year service period from April 2015 to April 2017 was studied based on monitored data.The Hunan Road Bridge is the widest concrete self-anchored suspension bridge in China at present.Its structural changes and safety were evaluated using the health monitoring data,which included deformations,detailed stresses,and vibration characteristics.The influences of the single and dual effects comprising the ambient temperature changes and concrete shrinkage and creep(S&C)were analyzed based on the measured data.The ANSYS beam finite element model was established and validated by the measured bridge completion state.The comparative analyses of the prediction results of long-term concrete S&C effects were conducted using CEB-FIP 90 and B3 prediction models.The age-adjusted effective modulus method was adopted to simulate the aging behavior of concrete.Prestress relaxation was considered in the stepwise calculation.The results show that the transverse deviations of the towers are noteworthy.The spatial effect of the extra-wide girder is significant,as the compressive stress variations at the girder were uneven along the transverse direction.General increase and decrease in the girder compressive stresses were caused by seasonal ambient warming and cooling,respectively.The temperature gradient effects in the main girder were significant.Comparisons with the measured data showed that more accurate prediction results were obtained with the B3 prediction model,which can consider the concrete material parameters,than with the CEB-FIP 90 model.Significant deflection of the midspan girder in the middle region will be caused by the deviations of the cable anchoring positions at the girder ends and tower tops toward the midspan due to concrete S&C.The increase in the compressive stresses at the top plate and decrease in the stresses at the bottom plate at the middle midspan will be significant.The pre-deviations of the towers toward the sidespan and pre-lift of the midspan girder can reduce the adverse influences of concrete S&C on the structural health of the self-anchored suspension bridge with extra-wide concrete girder.

Environmental Changes on the Tibetan Plateau:Evaluation and Prediction

A research report on the environmental changes of the Tibetan Plateau from the past 2,000 years to a century ahead has been released by the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences.After a three-year investigation into the plateau areas in southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region with an average altitude of over 4,500 meters,

The Changing Cold Regions Network:Observation,diagnosis and prediction of environmental change in the Saskatchewan and Mackenzie River Basins,Canada

Climate change is causing rapid and severe changes to many Earth systems and processes,with widespread cryospheric,ecological,and hydrological impacts globally,and especially in high northern latitudes.This is of major societal concern and there is an urgent need for improved understanding and predictive tools for environmental management.The Changing Cold Regions Network(CCRN)is a Canadian research consortium with a focus to integrate existing and new experimental data with modelling and remote sensing products to understand,diagnose,and predict changing land,water,and climate,and their interactions and feedbacks over the geographic domain of the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan River Basins in Canada.The network operates a set of 14 unique and focused Water,Ecosystem,Cryosphere and Climate(WECC)observatories within this region,which provide opportunities to observe and understand processes and their interaction,as well as develop and test numerical simulation models,and provide validation data for remote sensing products.This paper describes this network and its observational,experimental,and modelling programme.An overview of many of the recent Earth system changes observed across the study region is provided,and some local insights from WECC observatories that may partly explain regional patterns and trends are described.Several of the model products being developed are discussed,and linkages with the local to international user community are reviewed—In particular,the use of WECC data towards model and remote sensing product calibration and validation is highlighted.Some future activities and prospects for the network are also presented at the end of the paper.

Host-parasite interactions under extreme climatic conditions

The effect that climatic changes can exert on parasitic interactions represents a multifactor problem whose results are difficult to predict. The actual impact of changes will depend on their magnitude and the physiological tolerance of affected organisms. When the change is considered extreme （i.e. unusual weather events that are at the extremes of the historical distribution for a given area）, the probability of an alteration in an organisms＇ homeostasis increases dramatically. However, factors determining the altered dynamics of host-parasite interactions due to an extreme change are the same as those acting in response to changes of lower magnitude. Only a deep knowledge of these factors will help to produce more accurate predictive models for the effects of extreme changes on parasitic interactions. Extreme environmental conditions may affect pathogens directly when they include free-living stages in their life-cycles and indirectly through reduced resource availability for hosts and thus reduced ability to produce efficient anti-parasite defenses, or by effects on host density affecting transmission dynamics of diseases or the frequency of intraspecific contact. What are the consequences for host-parasite interactions？ Here we summarize the present knowledge on three principal factors in determining host-parasite associations; biodiversity, population density and immunocompetence In addition, we analyzed examples of the effects of environmental alteration of anthropogenic origin on parasitic systems because the effects are analogous to that exerted by an extreme climatic change [Current Zoology 57 （3）： 390405, 2011].