碳排放量、能源消费量、人口和经济增长存在着较为密切的关系,而作为清洁二次能源的电能,其消费使用量的多少影响着能源消费结构,进而影响着能源消费量。因此,电力消费强度和碳排放量之间存在着何种联系,是电力工业低碳之路需要考虑的...碳排放量、能源消费量、人口和经济增长存在着较为密切的关系,而作为清洁二次能源的电能,其消费使用量的多少影响着能源消费结构,进而影响着能源消费量。因此,电力消费强度和碳排放量之间存在着何种联系,是电力工业低碳之路需要考虑的问题。利用随机性环境影响评估模型(stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence,and technology,STRIPAT),通过最小二乘回归方法测算碳排放量、人口、人均国民生产总值、电力消费量和能源消费量之间的碳排放影响系数。研究发现,人口、人均国民生产总值以及电力消费量和能源消费量之间的比值每发生1%的变化,将引起碳排放总量1.207%、0.901%以及?1.188%的变化,因此,在未来我国人口增长趋势放缓、国民经济保持7%以上较快发展的情况下,减少碳排放的途径应该从技术因素入手,通过提高电能占使用能源的比率、提高化石能源的使用效率和发展可再生能源来进行。展开更多
“十四五”时期是中国实现碳达峰的关键时期,也是推动经济高质量发展和生态环境质量持续改善的重要阶段。可拓展的随机性环境影响评估(Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology,STIRPAT)模型可以根据...“十四五”时期是中国实现碳达峰的关键时期,也是推动经济高质量发展和生态环境质量持续改善的重要阶段。可拓展的随机性环境影响评估(Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology,STIRPAT)模型可以根据研究需要增加自变量,更好地分析相关因素对因变量的影响。以北京市为研究区,通过构建扩展的STIRPAT模型,分析人均地区生产总值(Gross Domestic Product,GDP)、人均汽车保有量、城市化率、第三产业GDP占比、能源消费强度与人均碳排放量的关系,并采用对数平均迪氏指数(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index,LMDI)分解法分解能源消费强度。结果表明,产业结构和能源消费强度对人均碳排放量均有显著的正向影响。总体来看,要平衡经济发展与碳排放的关系,提高能源利用效率,推广可再生能源,降低能源消耗,减少碳排放。展开更多
Dredging plume dispersion studies, use dredging plume models to predict the fate of sediment plumes resulting from dredging activities and dredge spoil disposal. The model results are applied as input to environmental...Dredging plume dispersion studies, use dredging plume models to predict the fate of sediment plumes resulting from dredging activities and dredge spoil disposal. The model results are applied as input to environmental impact assessment of the proposed dredging, particularly those associated with suspended sediments and sedimentation. Model validation and performance are still not resolved because of the difficulty of site measurements and the understanding of the parameters used in the model. This paper presents a 3-D dredging plume model based on the MIKE3 software package to investigate parameters which affect the model performances. As a result of lack of site data for the public domain uses, the model scenarios are designed artificially for sensitive runs to identify the key parameters affecting plume behaviours. The factors include dredging spill rates using different dredging methods, equipment and sediment settling velocities. The influence of wave and wind effects combined with tidal forces on the sediment re-suspended rates and the advection/dispersion scales are also assessed.展开更多
我国能源活动碳排放占总碳排放85%以上,研究能源活动碳排放的变化规律对于实现碳达峰碳中和目标具有重要意义.首先,采用对数平均迪氏分解法(logarithmic mean Divisia index,LMDI)对1995—2017年我国能源消费碳排放变化的影响因素进行分...我国能源活动碳排放占总碳排放85%以上,研究能源活动碳排放的变化规律对于实现碳达峰碳中和目标具有重要意义.首先,采用对数平均迪氏分解法(logarithmic mean Divisia index,LMDI)对1995—2017年我国能源消费碳排放变化的影响因素进行分解,从经济规模、产业结构、能源强度、能源结构、能源价格、人均可支配收入、人口规模这7个方面,模型给出了相关因素对一、二、三产业和居民部门碳排放变化的贡献.结果表明,对于3个产业部门,经济增长是碳排放增长的首要驱动力,而技术进步带来的能源强度下降、产业结构优化和能源消费结构改善呈现负效应,且产业结构优化和能源结构清洁化的作用越来越显著.对于居民部门,人均可支配收入是居民部门碳排放增长的推动力,而能源价格呈现明显的负效应.其次,设计了3种情景,运用可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估模型(stochastic impacts by regression population,affluence and technology,STIRPAT)对2030年我国能源碳排放进行预测,在以实现碳达峰为目标的低碳情景中,我国能源碳排放有望于2025—2029年实现达峰,峰值水平为101亿~110亿t.最后,为实现碳达峰碳中和目标,建议以构建中国能源互联网为基础平台,实施"清洁替代"和"电能替代",推进能源转型.展开更多
To encourage the environmental responsibility of consumers and manufacturers for forest management,it is necessary to evaluate the environmental influences of forest products.Ecological footprint(EF) is an internation...To encourage the environmental responsibility of consumers and manufacturers for forest management,it is necessary to evaluate the environmental influences of forest products.Ecological footprint(EF) is an internationally recognized indicator for estimating the natural capital consumption and environmental influences of various forest products.In this study,we developed an accounting model for the EF evaluation of wood flooring,which is a tertiary forest product,by the method of transformation.Next,we used that model to evaluate the EF of three types of wood flooring in China according to their production data from 2000 to 2018.We collected the necessary data by visiting typical enterprises in China and referring to the relevant literature.According to our results,the average EFs of solid wood flooring,engineered solid wood flooring and laminate flooring between 2000 to 2018 were 3.13×10^(6),1.05×10^(7) and 5.07×10^(6) gha,respectively.The total EFs of solid wood flooring,engineered solid wood flooring and laminate flooring from 2000 to 2018 were 5.95×10^(7),1.99×10^(8) and 9.64×10^(7 )gha,respectively.The coefficients of variation(CV) of the EFs for these three types of wood flooring were 0.45,0.87 and 0.76,respectively.The average and total EFs of the engineered solid wood flooring were the largest among the three types of wood flooring.The per capita EF and unit EF for the engineered solid wood flooring were also the highest among the three types of wood flooring.The EFs showed an upward trend with irregular fluctuations from 2000 to 2018 for all three types of wood flooring.It is necessary to reduce the EF of the engineered solid wood flooring and use more environmentally friendly products,such as solid wood flooring,for environmental protection.展开更多
文摘碳排放量、能源消费量、人口和经济增长存在着较为密切的关系,而作为清洁二次能源的电能,其消费使用量的多少影响着能源消费结构,进而影响着能源消费量。因此,电力消费强度和碳排放量之间存在着何种联系,是电力工业低碳之路需要考虑的问题。利用随机性环境影响评估模型(stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence,and technology,STRIPAT),通过最小二乘回归方法测算碳排放量、人口、人均国民生产总值、电力消费量和能源消费量之间的碳排放影响系数。研究发现,人口、人均国民生产总值以及电力消费量和能源消费量之间的比值每发生1%的变化,将引起碳排放总量1.207%、0.901%以及?1.188%的变化,因此,在未来我国人口增长趋势放缓、国民经济保持7%以上较快发展的情况下,减少碳排放的途径应该从技术因素入手,通过提高电能占使用能源的比率、提高化石能源的使用效率和发展可再生能源来进行。
文摘“十四五”时期是中国实现碳达峰的关键时期,也是推动经济高质量发展和生态环境质量持续改善的重要阶段。可拓展的随机性环境影响评估(Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence,and Technology,STIRPAT)模型可以根据研究需要增加自变量,更好地分析相关因素对因变量的影响。以北京市为研究区,通过构建扩展的STIRPAT模型,分析人均地区生产总值(Gross Domestic Product,GDP)、人均汽车保有量、城市化率、第三产业GDP占比、能源消费强度与人均碳排放量的关系,并采用对数平均迪氏指数(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index,LMDI)分解法分解能源消费强度。结果表明,产业结构和能源消费强度对人均碳排放量均有显著的正向影响。总体来看,要平衡经济发展与碳排放的关系,提高能源利用效率,推广可再生能源,降低能源消耗,减少碳排放。
文摘Dredging plume dispersion studies, use dredging plume models to predict the fate of sediment plumes resulting from dredging activities and dredge spoil disposal. The model results are applied as input to environmental impact assessment of the proposed dredging, particularly those associated with suspended sediments and sedimentation. Model validation and performance are still not resolved because of the difficulty of site measurements and the understanding of the parameters used in the model. This paper presents a 3-D dredging plume model based on the MIKE3 software package to investigate parameters which affect the model performances. As a result of lack of site data for the public domain uses, the model scenarios are designed artificially for sensitive runs to identify the key parameters affecting plume behaviours. The factors include dredging spill rates using different dredging methods, equipment and sediment settling velocities. The influence of wave and wind effects combined with tidal forces on the sediment re-suspended rates and the advection/dispersion scales are also assessed.
文摘我国能源活动碳排放占总碳排放85%以上,研究能源活动碳排放的变化规律对于实现碳达峰碳中和目标具有重要意义.首先,采用对数平均迪氏分解法(logarithmic mean Divisia index,LMDI)对1995—2017年我国能源消费碳排放变化的影响因素进行分解,从经济规模、产业结构、能源强度、能源结构、能源价格、人均可支配收入、人口规模这7个方面,模型给出了相关因素对一、二、三产业和居民部门碳排放变化的贡献.结果表明,对于3个产业部门,经济增长是碳排放增长的首要驱动力,而技术进步带来的能源强度下降、产业结构优化和能源消费结构改善呈现负效应,且产业结构优化和能源结构清洁化的作用越来越显著.对于居民部门,人均可支配收入是居民部门碳排放增长的推动力,而能源价格呈现明显的负效应.其次,设计了3种情景,运用可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估模型(stochastic impacts by regression population,affluence and technology,STIRPAT)对2030年我国能源碳排放进行预测,在以实现碳达峰为目标的低碳情景中,我国能源碳排放有望于2025—2029年实现达峰,峰值水平为101亿~110亿t.最后,为实现碳达峰碳中和目标,建议以构建中国能源互联网为基础平台,实施"清洁替代"和"电能替代",推进能源转型.
基金The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Non-profit Research Institution of CAF (CAFYBB2019MB002)The Project of the State Forestry Administration of the People’s Republic of China (2015-R04)。
文摘To encourage the environmental responsibility of consumers and manufacturers for forest management,it is necessary to evaluate the environmental influences of forest products.Ecological footprint(EF) is an internationally recognized indicator for estimating the natural capital consumption and environmental influences of various forest products.In this study,we developed an accounting model for the EF evaluation of wood flooring,which is a tertiary forest product,by the method of transformation.Next,we used that model to evaluate the EF of three types of wood flooring in China according to their production data from 2000 to 2018.We collected the necessary data by visiting typical enterprises in China and referring to the relevant literature.According to our results,the average EFs of solid wood flooring,engineered solid wood flooring and laminate flooring between 2000 to 2018 were 3.13×10^(6),1.05×10^(7) and 5.07×10^(6) gha,respectively.The total EFs of solid wood flooring,engineered solid wood flooring and laminate flooring from 2000 to 2018 were 5.95×10^(7),1.99×10^(8) and 9.64×10^(7 )gha,respectively.The coefficients of variation(CV) of the EFs for these three types of wood flooring were 0.45,0.87 and 0.76,respectively.The average and total EFs of the engineered solid wood flooring were the largest among the three types of wood flooring.The per capita EF and unit EF for the engineered solid wood flooring were also the highest among the three types of wood flooring.The EFs showed an upward trend with irregular fluctuations from 2000 to 2018 for all three types of wood flooring.It is necessary to reduce the EF of the engineered solid wood flooring and use more environmentally friendly products,such as solid wood flooring,for environmental protection.
