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台风纳沙和海棠的预报着眼点分析 被引量:15
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作者 董林 许映龙 +1 位作者 吕心艳 高拴柱 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2020年第1期29-36,共8页
2017年7月的两个台风(1709号台风纳沙和1710号台风海棠)在近海发生罕见的近距离相互作用和环流合并,给登陆点的预报及二次登陆时的强度预报造成很大困难,包括ECMWF和NCEP等在内的大部分数值模式均未能较好地做出预报,但实际业务中的官... 2017年7月的两个台风(1709号台风纳沙和1710号台风海棠)在近海发生罕见的近距离相互作用和环流合并,给登陆点的预报及二次登陆时的强度预报造成很大困难,包括ECMWF和NCEP等在内的大部分数值模式均未能较好地做出预报,但实际业务中的官方预报则较为准确。本文总结了实际业务中的预报经验,并对预报着眼点进行了分析归纳,主要包括:利用天气学模型、模式的偏差订正经验和集合预报结果等,分析模式对副热带高压等大尺度环流背景预报的合理性;通过分析双台风最靠近时刻的相对强度来确定主环流,从而判断两个台风的登陆时间差、各自的极值强度和陆上维持机制的差异;充分考虑登陆台湾的路径角度和过岛时间这两个影响因子,从而修订台风二次登陆时的强度。 展开更多
关键词 双台风 二次登陆 环流合并 预报着眼点
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A study on coupling technique and implementation of the wave-circulation coupled model 被引量:1
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作者 张志远 Liu Li +5 位作者 Zhou Yufeng Zhang Cheng Li Ruizhe Chen Yushu Song Guojie Yang Guangwen 《High Technology Letters》 EI CAS 2014年第1期82-87,共6页
The coupler is fundamental for a coupled model to realize complex interactions among component models.This paper focuses on the coupling process of Wave-Circulation(W-C) coupled model which consists of MASNUM(key labo... The coupler is fundamental for a coupled model to realize complex interactions among component models.This paper focuses on the coupling process of Wave-Circulation(W-C) coupled model which consists of MASNUM(key laboratory of marine science and numerical modeling wave model)and POM(Princeton Ocean Model).The current coupling module of this coupled model is based on the inefficient I/O file,which has already become a performance bottleneck especially when the coupled model utilizes a large number of processes.To improve the performance of the W-C model,a flexible coupling module based on the model coupling toolkit(MCT) is designed and implemented to replace the current I/O file coupling module in the coupled model.Empirical studies that we have carried out demonstrate that our online coupling module can dramatically improve the parallel performance of the coupled model.The online coupling module outperforms the I/O file coupling module.When processes increase to 96,the whole process of EXP-C takes only 695.8 seconds,which is only 58.8%of the execution time of EXP-F.Based on our experiments under 2D Parallel Decomposition(2DPD),we suggest setting parallel decomposition strategies automatically to component models in order to achieve high parallel efficiency. 展开更多
关键词 coupling technique model coupling toolkit (MCT) W-C coupled online cou-pling module 2D Parallel Decomposition (2DPD) parallel performance
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