加强区域经济联合推动珠江三角区经济的快速发展

加强区域经济联合推动珠江三角区经济的快速发展李小放区域经济联合是不同地区从区域或全国经济的整体利益出发，依据价值规律与社会分工要求和平等自愿、互惠互利的原则，合理配置地方资源，充分发挥地区特色和优势的协同行为。在国际经济一体化明显加快，区域化日益增强...

珠江三角洲河网区极端水位事件风险传递规律

为研究珠江三角洲河网区极端水位事件的风险传递规律,基于13个水位站点1957—2016年的月水位资料,利用pair-copula结构构建珠三角河网区水位的风险传递模型,分析不同情景下极端水位在空间上的风险传递机制及其时间变化规律。结果表明:在低降水量条件下,珠三角河网区低水位风险顺向(上游至下游)和逆向(下游至上游)传递的概率均显著增大;高降水量条件下夏季丰水期的高水位顺向传递风险更高,低降水量条件下冬季枯水期的低水位顺向和逆向传递风险均较高;受人类活动影响,在高降水量条件下,1987—2016年夏季丰水期的高水位顺向传递风险比1957—1986年显著增强;在低降水量条件下,1987—2016年冬季枯水期低水位的顺向和逆向传递风险比1957—1986年显著增强。

海平面上升对珠江三角洲潮区水利工程和咸潮的影响分析

全球气候变暖，年平均气温上升，导致全球海表温度上升和海平面上升已是客观存在的现实。通过典型的 调查剖析，研讨分析海平面年均上升2mm、到2030年海平面上升0． 06 m，对珠江三角洲潮区水利工程和成潮的影 响。

珠江三角洲典型河网区水资源调度策略与技术研究

珠江三角洲河网区河涌密布、闸泵众多,水动力条件复杂;受排污和咸潮影响,珠江三角洲局部地区水环境和供水安全问题突出。珠江三角洲河网区开展了一系列水资源调度实践,实践证明,利用闸泵-河库联合调度改善水环境和保障供水安全是一项行之有效的重要措施。分析了珠江三角洲河网区的水资源问题,将珠江三角洲河网区分为受排污影响和受咸潮影响两类典型河网区,针对典型河网区水资源调度需求,分别提出了改善水环境和保障供水安全的调度策略,探讨了典型河网区水资源调度模型技术,选择中珠联围进行了实证分析。结果表明,采用推荐调度方案可缩短中珠联围枯水期水体置换时间,有效地提高抢淡效率,提高供水保障程度。

十一省区专家达成共识，珠江区域经济合作势在必行 “珠江区域经济合作论坛”热论“泛珠三角”

进入新世纪以来，我国跨行政区划的区域经济一体化从理论研究到实际探索持续升温，区际间政府的合作接连不断，区域互动发展正成为新世纪我国经济发展的主要特征。在刚刚结束的“珠江区域经济合作论坛”上，建立泛珠三角经济协作区再次成为热门话题。由广东省社会科学院主办、广东省社会科学综合开发研究中心承办的“珠江区域经济合作论坛”对泛珠三角的涵义、定位和意义，其合作协调发展的机理和依据、实质内容、合作机制以及相关各方相互关系和定位等问题进行了深入探讨。本次论坛以省社科院及周边省区的社科院专家学者为主，吸收了广东省各界尤其是各经济学院的著名学者，并邀请在国内外经济学领域有重大贡献的专家学者出席，是一次高规格、国际化的经济论坛。本次论坛站在国际国内经济理论与求实的高度来讨论珠江区域经济合作问题，具有极高的学术价值与实际应用价值，把区域经济论坛推向了一个新的高度。在本次论坛上，十一个省区和国内外的有关专家达成共识，他们一致认为珠江区域经济合作势在必行，是区域协调发展的新战略、新趋势。广东省社科院院长梁桂全、我国的“红色理论专家”于光远、著名经济学家王珏、去年诺贝尔经济学奖得主史密斯博士均在论坛上从不同角度发表了自己对珠江区域经济合作表示赞同的观点及建议。其他专家学者也在论坛上作了精彩的报告。

CEPA与广东大珠三角和泛珠三角经济协作区

建立“9+2泛珠三角经济协作区”(即广东及周边和珠江上游8省区加港澳两个特别行政区),必将构筑起一个立足“大珠三角”、带动华南地区、影响东南亚的共生型经济体系。

珠三角与欧盟企业的综观经济合作

本文以企业国际经营环境变动及企业群和产业层面为出发点,提出了珠三角与欧盟企业综观经济合作模式,论述了它的架构及特征,并进一步论述了珠三角与欧盟企业经济合作的综观内容和综观方式。

创新政策环境对外商直接投资区位选择的影响——以珠江三角洲核心区六市为例

外商直接投资(FDI)企业按知识基础类型可分为解析型、合成型和象征型,从政策工具维度对珠江三角洲核心区六市2007—2016年的创新政策进行文本分析,以创新政策强度和创新政策协同度两个指标量化评估珠三角核心区六市创新政策环境,利用多项式逻辑回归模型识别和检验创新政策环境对异质性知识基础的外商直接投资企业区位选择的影响。结果表明:①珠三角核心区六市创新政策环境时空分异显著,以2010年为时间节点创新政策强度显著提升而协同度明显降低,创新政策强度与协同度均呈楔形空间结构但二者空间异构明显;②创新政策强度和创新政策协同度对FDI区位选择皆有显著的正效应,且随着创新政策协同度的提升区域更有可能成为解析型和合成型FDI区位选择的对象;③政府态度、企业进入方式和布局区位对FDI区位选择有显著影响,集聚因素中的商务服务水平对FDI区位选择的影响显著为正,而城市人口密度和集聚经济水平的影响显著为负。研究结果对地方政府实施更加本地化的创新政策吸引差异化知识基础的FDI,构建区域竞争优势带来重要启示。

Relationship Between Producer Services Developing Level and Urban Hierarchy——A Case Study of Zhujiang River Delta

As the Central Place Theory indicates, the centricity of a central city can influence the extension of its ser- vice. Since the service industry in the theory is mostly consumer services, it is worth studying the relationship between the producer services and the centricity of the city in the service society with producer services becoming a more im- portant part of the service industry. The paper takes the case of the Zhujiang (Pearl) River Delta (PRD), a developed region in China, to study the relationship between the developing level of producer services and the urban hierarchy. Based on the analysis about the spatial difference of the producer services in the nine cities of the PRD, and the divi- sion of the nine cities according to some economic indices, it is shown that there is a correlation between the develop- ing level of producer services and the urban hierarchy. Furthermore, two deductions about the future status of the pro- ducer services in the city and the location of the producer services in a large region can be made from this correlation between the developing level of producer services and the urban hierarchy.

Characterization of Soil Available Nitrogen in the Major Vegetable Production Areas of Pearl River Delta,China

A macro scale survey was performed to investigate the content of soil available nitrogen (N) and its spatial distribution in the main vegetable production areas of the Pearl River Delta.Preliminary enrichment-deficient index of available N was then developed,which was a base for increasing fertilizer application efficiency and vegetable yield as well as for constructing soil testing and fertilizing formula.In general,most of the vegetable growth areas in Pearl River Delta were N-deficient or medium-N-deficient.There was 30%-62% increase in yield of Chinese cabbage on the N-deficient soil after application of N; when soil available N content was less than 145 mg/kg,the yield increased with application of N fertilizer at a rate of 60-70 kg/hm2.

我国古今施肥琐论

根据出土文物的考证,我国种植业大约已有近万年的历史,最原始的时候,先民种庄稼当然不会知道施肥。在一块新开辟的地上栽种,若干年后,地力渐趋衰退,庄稼产量越来越低,于是便另辟一块地栽种,采用所谓撂荒的办法。可以想像,当初先民们在生产实践中看到,在倾倒人畜粪便等生活废弃物的地上。

Empirical Analysis of City Contact in Zhujiang(Pearl) River Delta, China

In traditional urban geography, city contact research is a classic study element in city research. In general, researchers use the traditional gravity model to characterize the contacts that exist between two cities. The traditional gravity model assumes ideal conditions, but these preconditions and their results often do not exist in realistic conditions. Thus, we used a modified gravity model to characterize the city contacts within a specific region. This model considers factors such as intercity complementarities, government intervention, and the diversity of the transportation infrastructure which is characterized as the transportation distance instead of the traditional Euclidean distance. We applied this model to an empirical study of city contact in the Zhujiang(Pearl) River Delta(PRD) of China. The regression results indicated that the modified gravity model could measure city contact more accurately and comprehensively than the traditional gravity model, i.e., it yielded a higher adjusted R2 value(0.379) than the traditional gravity model result(0.259). Our study also suggests that, in addition to urban-regional and metropolitan development, the complementarities of the basic functions of cities at the administrative and market levels, as well as the corporeal and immaterial levels, play very significant roles in the characterization of city contact. Given the complexity of city contact, it will be necessary to consider more relevant influential factors in the modified gravity model to characterize the features of city contact in the future.

Urbanization effect on precipitation over the Pearl River Delta based on CMORPH data

Based on the satellite data from the Climate Prediction Center morphing(CMORPH) at very high spatial and temporal resolution, the effects of urbanization on precipitation were assessed over the Pearl River Delta(PRD) metropolitan regions of China. CMORPH data well estimates the precipitation features over the PRD. Compared to the surrounding rural areas, the PRD urban areas experience fewer and shorter precipitation events with a lower precipitation frequency(ratio of rainy hours, about 3 days per year less); however, short-duration heavy rain events play a more significant role over the PRD urban areas. Afternoon precipitation is much more pronounced over the PRD urban areas than the surrounding rural areas, which is probably because of the increase in short-duration heavy rain over urban areas.

Measuring coordination of economy-society and resource-environment based on major function oriented zoning: a case study of Pearl River Delta

A reasonable coordination degree assessment of the social-economic development level and the resource-environment quality level are essential to ident the key factory of the development, and vital to determine the appropriate development strategy and achieve sustainable development. The major function oriented zoning plays a role in spatial coordination mainly＇ by spatial guidance and restriction, so. the proposal of major function oriented zoning gives a new train of thought to generate a coordination evaluation of economy-society and the resource-environment system, From the view of major function oriented zoning that considers resource environmental bearing capacity, existing development density and development potential, this paper constructs an index system and model of coordination evahtation with a case study on Pearl River Delta. The results have shown： （I） It can reveal the conflicts of economic-social development and resource-environment quality to ac- curately consider resource environmental bearing capacity, existing development densio~ and development po- tential; （2） The coordination degree between social-economy system and resource-environment system in Pearl River Delta continued to decline in the past 10 years. The spatial extent of coordination evoh,es.from coordina- tion in the whole Pearl River Delta to imbalance in the core areas, and at present, the uncoordinated areas have already diffused from core areas to the outlying regions： （3） Most regions of the Pearl River Delta are in uncoordinated condition When considering the coordination degree of economic-social development and resollrceenvironment quality, not as coordinated as some scholars considered.

MEASUREMENTS OF PARTICLE NUMBER SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS AND NEW PARTICLE FORMATION EVENTS DURING WINTER IN THE PEARL RIVER DELTA REGION,CHINA

Particle number size distribution(PNSD) between 10 nm and 20 μm were measured in the Pearl River Delta(PRD) region in winter 2011.The average particle number concentration of the nucleation mode(10-20 nm),Aitken mode(20-100 nm),accumulation mode(100 nm-1μm) and coarse mode(1-20 μm) particles were 1 552,7 470,4 012,and 19 cm-3,respectively.The volume concentration of accumulation mode particles with peak at 300 nm accounted for over 70% of the total volume concentration.Diurnal variations and dependencies on meteorological parameters of PNSD were investigated.The diurnal variation of nucleation mode particles was mainly influenced by new particle formation events,while the diurnal variation of Aitken mode particles correlated to the traffic emission and the growth process of nucleation mode particles.When the PRD region was controlled by a cold high pressure,conditions of low relative humidity,high wind speed and strong radiation are favorable for the occurrence of new particle formation(NPF) events.The frequency of occurrence of NPF events was 21.3% during the whole measurement period.Parameters describing NPF events,including growth rate(GR) and source rate of condensable vapor(Q),were slightly larger than those in previous literature.This suggests that intense photochemical and biological activities may be the source of condensable vapor for particle growth,even during winter in the PRD.

IMPACT OF URBANIZATION IN DIFFERENT REGIONS OF EASTERN CHINA ON PRECIPITATION AND ITS UNCERTAINTY

Climate effect caused by urbanization has been an indispensable anthropogenic factor in the research on regional climate change.Based on daily precipitation data,possible effects of precipitation on the development of three city groups in eastern China are discussed.With three classification methods(TP,PD and MODIS land cover),urban and rural stations are identified.The main findings are as follows.Climate effects caused by urbanization are different from place to place.In 1960 to 2009,the urbanization brought more precipitation to the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta city groups but had no obvious effect on the precipitation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan city group.The difference of precipitation is slight between urban and suburban areas during slow period of the urbanization from 1960 to 1979.It is more evident in the rapid period(1980 to 2009) that urbanization has positive effects on precipitation in every city group.The difference of precipitation between urban and rural stations is sensitive to the ways of distinguishing rural from urban area,which may cause uncertainties in 1960 to 1979,while it is very different in 1980 to 2009 in which urbanization favors more precipitation in all city groups and their differences in precipitation are not sensitive to the division methods.

FUTURE CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION EXTREMES OVER THE PEARL RIVER BASIN FROM REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS

Based on RegCM4,a climate model system,we simulated the distribution of the present climate(1961-1990)and the future climate(2010-2099),under emission scenarios of RCPs over the whole Pearl River Basin.From the climate parameters,a set of mean precipitation,wet day frequency,and mean wet day intensity and several precipitation percentiles are used to assess the expected changes in daily precipitation characteristics for the 21 st century.Meanwhile the return values of precipitation intensity with an average return of 5,10,20,and 50 years are also used to assess the expected changes in precipitation extremes events in this study.The structure of the change across the precipitation distribution is very coherent between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The annual,spring and winter average precipitation decreases while the summer and autumn average precipitation increases.The basic diagnostics of precipitation show that the frequency of precipitation is projected to decrease but the intensity is projected to increase.The wet day percentiles(q90 and q95) also increase,indicating that precipitation extremes intensity will increase in the future.Meanwhile,the5-year return value tends to increase by 30%-45%in the basins of Liujiang River,Red Water River,Guihe River and Pearl River Delta region,where the 5-year return value of future climate corresponds to the 8-to 10-year return value of the present climate,and the 50-year return value corresponds to the 100-year return value of the present climate over the Pearl River Delta region in the 2080 s under RCP8.5,which indicates that the warming environment will give rise to changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events.

Assessment of Spatial Distribution and Submerged Scope for Storm Surge in the Pearl River Delta Region

The aim of this study was to explore the spatial distribution and submerged scope for storm surge in the Pearl River Delta(PRD) region.Based on the data of storm surges in the PRD region in the past 30 years,the return periods of 12 tide-gauge stations for storm surges were calculated separately with the methods of Gumbel and Pearson-III.The data of another six tide-gauge stations in Guangdong Coast was quoted to depict the overall features of storm surges in Guangdong.Using least-square method,the spatial distribution models of storm surges in different return periods were established to reveal the distribution rule of the set-up values of storm surges.The spatial distribution curves of storm surges in different return periods in the PRD Region were drawn up based on the models and the terrain of Guangdong Coast.According to the curves,the extreme set-up values of storm surges in 1 000,100,10 a return periods were determined on each spot of Guangdong Coast.Applying the spatial analysis technology of ArcGIS,with the topography data of the PRD Region,the submerged scopes of flood caused by storm surge in 1 000,100,10 a return periods were drawn up.The loss caused by storm surges was estimated.Results showed that the storm surges and the topography of PRD region jointly led to the serious flood in the PRD region.This assessment would be useful for the planning and design department to make decision and provide government scientific basis for storm surge prediction,coastal engineering designing and the prevention of storm surge disaster.

THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE PEARL RIVER DELTA IN NEW TERM

Since China opening to outside world,the economy in the Pearl(Zhujiang)River Delta(PRD)has been dou-ble digit growth.It has been known as one of mature fast growth areas in the world and become the model and hope of Chi-nese reformand opening to outside wo rld.The regional development in PRD is the outcome of polarization effects .The polar-ization effects actually are extension of international regional divis ion and a combination of Hongkong’s i nfluence and re-form and open-door policies on the ma inland.Since the 1990s,driven by knowledge-based economy,the PRD has f urther adjusted the industrial structure a nd achieved good progress in upgradi ng industrial structure.Its high te chnology industry has developed quickly and the econom ic internationalization has deepen ed,meanwhile,the region is going th rough transforma-tion and some new trends have begun to appear,which include:university t owns springing up,industrial globalization and the construction of Hi-tech develop ment zones.The paper suggests that w ith the economic growth changing fro m relying on the low level production elements to relying on high level production ele ments,the regional policies in Guan gdong Province should develop correspondingly:1)make a plan to prohibite the blind con struction in innovative spatial con struc-tions;2)make measures to attract the overseas talents to establish a pool of talen t;3)work out the favorable policies for absorbing larger capital;4)formulate the policy of attracting a cluster of industries to speed up the upgrade of industrial development.

EVOLUTION OF MOIST POTENTIAL VORTICITY DURING A WARM-ZONE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IN THE PEARL RIVER DELTA

First,based on routine meteorological data,the synoptic characteristics of a heavy warm-sector rainfall that occurred on June 13,2008 in the Pearl River Delta were analyzed.Second,a mesoscale numerical model,Weather Research and Forecasting(WRFV2.2),was used to simulate the heavy rainfall. Diagnostic analyses were done of moist potential vorticity(MPV)for its horizontal components(MPV2) and vertical components(MPV1)based on the simulation results of WRFV2.2 to identify the mechanism of the rainfall development.The results showed that the heavy rainfall occurred when there were high MPV1 in the upper levels and low MPV1 and high MPV2 in the lower levels.Disturbances of high MPV1 in the upper levels came from the southwest or northwest,those of low MPV1 in the lower levels came from the southwest,and those of high MPV2 came from the south.Disturbances of low MPV1 at low levels were the direct cause of convective instability.Enhanced vertical shear of meridional wind led to increased MPV2 at lower levels,strengthened baroclinicity,and active warm and wet flows.These distributions of MPV helped to trigger the release of unstable energy and produce warm-sector heavy rainfall.As it integrates the evolution of dynamic and thermal fields,MPV is able to reveal the development of this heavy rainfall effectively.